Tag Archives: volatility

Volatility, Late Selling, Market Still One Timeframing Higher on Daily Chart


The ES opened a tick below the previous pit session close on Wednesday, traded two ticks lower to one tick below the overnight session half back and wide point of control at 2384.50, bounced, then tested the low again before slowly grinding higher in another low confidence, slow paced start to the U.S. pit session.

split view market profile charts April 25.26

After grinding higher through D period, volatility entered the market with price selling off sharply in E period and re-entering the prior day’s range, but with no follow through price rallied back to the high, leaving a poor high at 2394.75 with only one tick of excess. Price sold off in the final hour of the day on higher volume, driving price lower to Tuesday’s G period low.

The point of control widened from 5 TPO’s at 2388.50 in G period to 10 wide at 2389.00 by the end of the day. Value was higher.

Wednesday’s low at 2382.00 could be a potential go/no go price level on Thursday – acceptance below the low would stop the one timeframing higher on the daily chart and pressure recent longs, potentially driving price down through the excess single prints and attempt to fill the gap from Monday. If price can reenter a prior balance, Monday’s squat profile, there is the potential of trading to the opposite side of the balance.

Failure for price to find acceptance below the now congested 2382.00 level would keep the week’s bullish tone in tact, but price would have to find acceptance above Wednesday’s wide POC and late breakdown point at 2389.00 to repair the poor high at 2394.75 and make a run at the all time high.

The all time high on the ES futures June contract is at 2398.00. The all time high from the March contract was 2401.00. The psychological 2400 level was not reached in the June contract after rollover.

ES daily chart through April 26


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Pre FOMC Day Market Profile Recap

With neutral overnight inventory coming into the session, the ES opened within the previous day’s range on Tuesday. After looking above Monday’s high in A period, B opened slightly below it, looked a tick above, and returned back into Monday’s range. After forming an inside in B period, C busted through it to the downside (5 minute drop in one minute) with no apparent news to cause the sudden spike lower other than being the day before FOMC.

C accelerated lower through Monday’s range repairing the poor low, D created a weak low at just one tick from matching the July 21st low at 2153.75


D reentered the previous range – with E accelerating higher, initially pausing at just one tick below the previous close, once again defining that short term, emotional traders were controlling the market. The E period closed the lower distribution.

Volatility calmed down, forming a small inside bar in G period with a widening POC developing at 2161.50

A delayed breakout lower in H stayed within value and range from the previous day’s regular session, and the market traded within balance the remainder of the session.

Although price traded outside of the previous day’s range in C/D period it did not get the outside day, as price traded back into and closed within the previous day’s range.

The near matching lows from 7/21 and 7/26 can be considered weak because of the mechanical bounce from a visual level, and has good odds of being revisited in coming trading sessions.

There is still no resolution to the poor all time high at 2169.75 from 7/20.

You can probably expect heavy volatility Wednesday around the release of the FOMC Meeting Announcement 2:00 PM ET.

The ES is now in a nine day trading range after rocketing higher nearly 200 points off the June Brexit lows.

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