Tag Archives: breakout

Low Volume Breakout of Balance

After a low volume breakout of the previous inside day the ES left another poor high on the Market Profile chart, trading back into the excess single print selling tail from March 21st.

another-poor-high

Price acceptance above Thursday’s high will continue to fill in the March 21st selloff excess, retracing the downward move and possibly challenge the previous weekly high made on that day at 2378.75, ending the month on a bullish note.

The market is one timeframing higher on the daily chart going into the last trading day of the month. Price would have to trade above 2378.75 to stop the one timeframing lower on the weekly.

If Thursday’s poor high is repaired, monitor price for continuation above Thursday’s balance, or for a potential “look above and fail” scenario.

value-area-higher

If price finds acceptance below 2358.50 and into the A period buying tail excess single prints, Thursday’s low at 2354.00 should have good odds of being tested, which would put price back into the prior balance.

During Tuesday’s rally, the late pullback low at 2351.00 (also the March 9th pullback low from the all time high) was an important trading reference. After being tested on Wednesday price rallied, although very mechanically and on declining volume, from that level. Trading below 2351.00 could bring more downside pressure.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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Four Day Balance Ahead Of Monthly Jobs Data

The S&P E-mini is trading in a four day balance area heading into Friday’s monthly job report. Market Profile balance trading rules could apply:

1) Remain within balance
2) Look above or below balance and fail; on a failure the opposite extreme becomes the destination trade.
3) Look above or below balance and accelerate; these events could target directional reference levels.

Acceptance on either side of the back to back, very prominent points of control at 2272.50/75 could provide early directional clues. Trading at the point of control (fairest price) before attempting a breakout of balance should increase the odds of continuation from a breakout, failure to first trade to the prominent POC might result in a failed breakout attempt.

While there is now significant excess at the all time pit session high at 2296.50 on both the weekly and monthly bar charts, there is only four ticks of excess on the daily profile chart on the day it was created, it is also a poor high, at two TPO’s wide.

Additionally the all time 24 hour high, made in an overnight session, is at 2298.50, two ticks shy of the psychological 2300 level. To date, all time highs created in the Globex sessions have always been revisited during regular U.S. pit session hours.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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Narrow Range, Inside Day

Narrow range, balanced inside day in the ES with price trading above and below the 2153 prior day’s late rally high and closing price in 11 of the 13 market profile periods.

inside-day-above-prior-rally-high

There was just over a 6 point total range for the day until the final minutes of the pit trading session, when price rallied from the K period pullback low (the exact half back level at the time) to take out the day’s earlier 3 TPO wide poor high by two points.

poor-high-repaired

The 11 TPO wide prominent point of control keeps 2153.25 an important reference. If price opens within range, any breakout from the inside day should have better odds of continuation if price first checks in with the wide POC. But with such a small trading range there are also good odds that price opens with a gap the next regular trading session.

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