Tag Archives: breakout

Inside Month Breakout?

breakout from March inside month
Breakout below March low, an inside month

March ended as an inside month. Monday’s selloff was on relatively light NYSE market volume of 3.43 billion shares

Price mechanically traded 6 points higher at the open to just above the prior close before selling off, one timeframing lower for the first six half hour periods, breaking out below the March low at 2586.00 in the fifth period.

The market rallied off the 2552.00 session low to 2585.00 in ‘M’ period, but could not trade back into the March range. Continued acceptance below that level (and the March low at 2686.00) could target the February low at 1535.25. Monday’s point of control at 2574.25 could draw price back to it on Tuesday, and could act as either early support or resistance.

Aceptance back above the 2586.00 level could target at least some of the multiple anomalies from Monday’s stretched out profile and numerous single prints.



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Breakout of Balance to Begin Week



breakout-of-five-day-balance

The ES gapped open higher to begin the week, breaking out of the prior multi-day trading range.

Anomalies in market profile chart
Anomalies in market profile chart

Multiple anomalies in the market profile chart are often a sign of more emotionally driven and shorter time frame momentum traders. At least some of the anomalies have good odds of being revisted in a soon-after trading session, if not in the next.

breakout of balance, late pullback low

The late pullback low at 2769.50 could be an early trading reference on Tuesday, continued acceptance above that level could test the excess single prints above 2780.50 and possibly Tuesday’s high. Acceptance above the high could target the unfilled gap from 2/1, 2/2.

Price acceptance back below the pullback low could at least suggest a potential balancing day developing, and/or a possible test of the prior trading range high, and the gap fill from Friday.

Monday’s rally was not on notably high volume. NYSE daily volume was just over 3.2 billion.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)



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Low Volume Breakout of Balance

After a low volume breakout of the previous inside day the ES left another poor high on the Market Profile chart, trading back into the excess single print selling tail from March 21st.

another-poor-high

Price acceptance above Thursday’s high will continue to fill in the March 21st selloff excess, retracing the downward move and possibly challenge the previous weekly high made on that day at 2378.75, ending the month on a bullish note.

The market is one timeframing higher on the daily chart going into the last trading day of the month. Price would have to trade above 2378.75 to stop the one timeframing lower on the weekly.

If Thursday’s poor high is repaired, monitor price for continuation above Thursday’s balance, or for a potential “look above and fail” scenario.

value-area-higher

If price finds acceptance below 2358.50 and into the A period buying tail excess single prints, Thursday’s low at 2354.00 should have good odds of being tested, which would put price back into the prior balance.

During Tuesday’s rally, the late pullback low at 2351.00 (also the March 9th pullback low from the all time high) was an important trading reference. After being tested on Wednesday price rallied, although very mechanically and on declining volume, from that level. Trading below 2351.00 could bring more downside pressure.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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