Tag Archives: weak high

Low Confidence Trading Session Leaves Anomalies in Profile, Weak High, Poor Low,

matching daily highs and poor low in profile
matching highs, poor low in profile chart

Wednesday’s anomalous profile featured a high that matched exactly the high from August 9th at 2474.00, and left a poor low with no TPO’s of excess at 2462.50. Value ended the session as higher than the previous day, but the point of control had migrated lower in the final period.

If price opens within Wednesday’s range on Thursday it will probably attempt to clean up the anomalies. Acceptance above Wednesday’s high could target the remaining unrepaired anomalies from the August 8th profile, when the ES put in its latest all time high at 2488.50. Failure to find price acceptance above the 2474.00 matching highs, a “look above and fail scenario”, potentially targets Wednesday’s poor low 2462.50.

Acceptance below 2462.50 targets Tuesday’s low at 2460.00 and the excess single prints from the August 14th profile, potentially the top of the gap at 2454.00, and the bottom of the gap at 2446.50.

Price is one tmeframing higher on the daily chart since the August 10/11 near matching lows at 2435.75/2436.00, which remains an unrepaired poor low.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Look Above Balance and Fail, ES One Timeframes Back Into Range

Monday’s ES pit session gapped open two ticks above the prior day’s high. After trading back into the prior range by only one tick, price traded higher in the opening period to one tick below the April 12th daily high at 2349.50. Wednesday’s pit session high can be considered a weak high because it was almost exactly at such an exact reference used by short term traders.

one-timeframe-back-into-balance

By the gap higher opening, price did not first trade back to the prominent back to back points of control and previous pit session close at 2337.75, probably lowering the odds for continuation of the attempted breakout of the balance.

After the low confidence opening and attempted breakout higher stalled (NYSE first half hour volume very light at only 266k) sellers appeared at the opening of F period after a tight D/E bar balance that traded in and out of the prior range (E looked above the inside bar of D, failed, and traded through its low). The market one timeframed lower back through the prior day’s range to within one point of the previous low.

The developing point of control, which began to widen to 5 TPO’s at 2346.00, lowered to 2344.25 in F period and had a chance of lowering again late in the day but ran out of time. Were traders getting short in the hole late? Wednesday’s profile left many anomalies, which always have good odds of being at least partially repaired in the next session or one soon after. Carry that information forward, along with the weak high at the 2349.25/.50 level.

anomalies in market profile chart

Value, which was higher for a good part of the session, finished the day as overlapping to higher.

Depending on where price is at Thursday’s open, the focus could be on the now three close together daily lows at 2331 25, 2330.25 and 2328.75, potentially setting up another “firecracker effect”, where hitting one set of stops below one level will trigger more stops from nearby price levels. Acceleration below those lows should easily see price test the prior weekly low at 2324.00, and potentially targeting the March monthly low at 2318.00, followed the by the psychological 2300 level. There also remains an unfilled gap from February 10th at 2312.75.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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Balanced, Inside Day on Last Trading Day of Month, Quarter

Balanced, inside day on the last trading day in the month and quarter on Friday. Price failed to trade below the previous day’s excess single prints at 2358.50 until the final half hour period.

Friday’s high at 2366.75, also the weekly high, was exactly at the prior day’s poor high (no excess TPO’s).

poor and weak high on market profile chart

Depending on where price opens on Monday, balance trading rules could apply: look above or below the one day balance and accelerate or fail, or remain balancing.

One potential “look above and fail” day trading scenario could see price repair the back to back poor/weak highs at 2366.75 and fail, returning back into the two day balance to test Friday’s low at 2357.75. Acceptance below that level would stop the one timeframing higher on the daily chart and would probably test Thursday’s 2354.00 low.

Lower potential price targets, should selling intensify, are the March 29th low at 2348.75, March 28th single print at 2342.75 and single print and prior trading range low at 2131.50.

If/when the market finds acceptance below the 2332 prior support level and if there is more serious selling pressure, more extreme levels could include the March 28th low at 2318.00 and unfilled gap (eventually) from February at 2312.75.

To the upside, acceptance above Friday’s poor high keeps the short term uptrend intact and would stop the one timeframing lower on the weekly chart, potentially targeting the remaining single prints and 2378.75 high from March the 21st selloff, and 3 daily highs above that level, including the March 16th poor high at 2384.50, which was mechanically at the upper excess level from the March 15th recovery high.

The all time S&P 500 Emini high on the March contract is at 2398.50. It is also a “poor” high.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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