Tag Archives: spike

ES Sets Another New Record High and Sells Off, Leaves Market Profile Spike




After setting another new all time high during Sunday evening’s Globex session at 2663.25, the ES gapped open 4.5 points above Friday’s high, rallying from the prior 2658.50 all time high in the opening period to trade two points above the overnight high, and setting a new regular trading session record high at 2665.25 before reversing.

selloff from new all time high
After trading two points above a new record high set in the overnight Globex market, the ES set a new regular session all time high and sells off from it, leaving a late day Market Profile spike at 2650.50.

A sharp move in C period traded, mechanically, to exactly at the prior day’s high and bounced, closing the gap but leaving an early poor low with only one tick of excess at the C/D bar lows.

 split view market profile chart 12-4-17
Split view market profile chart 12-4-17

The high of F period mechanically filled in, to the tick, the B/C period single print and continued to balance until selling off again in J period, forming a late day spike below 2650.75.

2650.50 could be a key Market Profile trading reference on Tuesday as the base of the late day spike is generally resistance. Remaining below the spike base keeps the downward trend from Monday in tact, with good odds of price retesting Monday’s low.

Acceptance back above the spike base could nullify Monday’s late bearishness, which could lead to a retest of Monday’s point of control. Acceptance above the POC targets the near matching E/F/H/I bar highs and potentially the latest, new all time high.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Trump Tax Plan, New FOMC Chair Brings Little Volatility

Thursday’s profile featured an overlapping to lower value area but a point of control that migrated higher following early selling.

 split view market profile chart
Market Profile daily chart. Split view market profile chart for 11/2/17, within a five day balance

The market stopped one timeframing higher on the weekly chart last week, although it still closed as an outside week. Price has stopped one time one timeframing higher on the daily chart on Thursday, after five consecutive regular hour trading sessions of one time framing higher.

For any potential meaningful change to the downside, price would have to find acceptance back below the base of the late day spike above the near matching F/G/H/J/K/L bar highs that were all within one tick of one another. The wide point of control at 2573.00 would be the next downside reference.

The matching K/L period lows at 2571.00 were very mechanical and probably have decent odds of being revisited. Price rallied from there to spike above the L bar high in M period, possibly just as a stop run by shorter timer frame traders.

Generally, acceptance or rejection of a late day spike on the next trading day either confirms or rejects the direction of the late day price probe – opening and remaining above it is positive, opening below it is negative, and opening within it shows possible acceptance and a place where two sided trade can take place.

Acceptance above Thursday’s POC and base of the late spike probe higher targets Thursday’s poor high at 2578.25 and potentially the excess above the prior week’s high at 2580.75. Removing that excess challenges the latest all time high from 11/1 at 2585.50. The very psychological 2600 level could next be on the radar in the event of a rally to new all time highs.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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September Trade Begins

ES Globex gap lower in the US Labor Day shortened  electronic trading session following North Korea's alleged hydrogen bomb test
ES Globex gap lower in the US Labor Day shortened electronic trading session following North Korea’s reported hydrogen bomb test

At the time of this posting on Monday evening, 9/4/17, the ES had already gapped open lower for the shortened U.S. Labor Day electronic trading session following weekend news that North Korea had successfully tested a hydrogen bomb, and is reportedly working towards fitting it onto a long range ballistic missile.

If the ES futures market gaps open below the Friday, 9/1/17 range on Tuesday, the wide point of control from 8/31 at 2468.50 is the first obvious potential target, followed by the top of the lower gap at 2462.50, and the gap fill from 8/30 at 2459.75.

 split view profile with late day spike lower.
Split view profile with late day spike lower.

Trading below 2459.75 would put price back into the 8/30 breakout of balance profile, where the market profile chart was structurally poor with multiple distributions. Looking at each of those distributions as a separate auction, balance trading scenarios could apply in regards to each distribution – look above or below a balance and either accelerate or fail (if fail then potentially targeting the opposite side), or remain in balance.

If there is more severe liquidation and price is accepted below the prior five day balance high and 8/30 upper distribution (2454.00/2453.00), the odds would probably favor a retest of the low from 8/30 at 2442.75 and potentially the 8/29 upper distribution high at 2436.600.

The longer term, monthly time frame is still trending higher as evident by the monthly one timeframing higher since November 2016. However, the intermediate & weekly timeframe has been, arguably, balancing for fourteen weeks. The daily chart as of last Friday has been in a short term uptrend.

If the market shrugs off the North Korea news and price is accepted back into Friday’s range, look for a probable test of the spike base at 2477.25. Acceptance back above the late spike targets the poor high at 2479.75, and would probably have good odds of retesting the latest all time high at 2488.50 sometime during the week.

If the market sells off, the prior weekly low at 2426.25 and August low of 2415.75 are within reach. Trading below 2415.75 would end the monthly one timeframing higher and could be a catalyst to potentiallyy more severe change in the market.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




#SP500 #ESU7

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