Tag Archives: overnight high

Another new all time high in the S&P eminis

ES-new-alltime-high-july14-2016

After the fourth gap higher opening in the past 5 trading sessions, and another new all time high set at 2168.00 during the 25 point overnight session, the ES opened 14 points above its previous close but couldn’t manage more than a 10 point range during pit session trading hours. Three of those gaps remain unfilled.

In the opening 30 minute market profile ‘A’ period the ES traded down exactly to the half back level from the overnight session, and the lower end of its upper distibution (a very visual, mechanical short term traders reference level), before “rallying” 8 points to set another new all time pit session high at 2163, five points shy of the overnight high.

From C period the market one timeframed lower for 7 consecutive periods, eventually taking out the previous weak A period low in H period but did not form a second, lower distribution and re-entered the earlier initial balance. The bounce off the lows left a poor low (just one tick of excess between the H and I periods).

Thursday’s profile is in balance. The wide point of control at 2157.50 and the late rally L/M period high at 2160.75 could be short term trading references for Friday.

If price takes out Thursday’s poor low and accelerates lower, the top of the previous two day balance from 7/12, 7/13 at 2150.75 comes into focus, acceptance back within that range could easily target the wide naked point of control at 2145.25 and the lower end of that two day balance at 2138. To the upside, the new all time high made in the after hours market at 2168 could be revisited.

The market is still in rally mode from the Brexit lows, with the daily chart one timeframing higher for seven consecutive periods, while the weekly chart is one timeframing higher for three. There is the potential for the monthly chart to finally show meaningful excess for July, but that won’t be determined until trading begins in August.

Thursday’s overnight session could have some volatilty as Chinese GDP, Retail Sales and Industrial Production reports are scheduled to for release.

Friday is also a busy day for the U.S. economic calendar as Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Survey reports are due out at 8:30 EST, with Business Inventories and Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM EST.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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New S&P 500 emini All Time High

ES-all-time-high-July-11-2016-market-profile-splitview

After setting a new all time high during the overnight session, the ES gap opened higher on Monday, failed to reach the overnight high in A period by two ticks, sold off to fill the gap from July 8th by one tick in B period, then one timeframed higher for the next 5 market profile 30 minute trading periods, setting a new all time high on the S&P emini September futures contract at 2136.75.

More mechanical buying in J, K and L periods formed a three TPO wide selling ledge, which was breached late in the day in an M period liquidation break, but the 9 wide point of control at 2133.75 limited downside continuation.

Monday’s S&P all time high was achieved on low NYSE volume of 3.2 billion. Although value was clearly higher on the day, the mechanical nature of the earlier bounce off the previous day’s high along with the slow pace to the session was indicative of short term traders in control of the trading session.

July 8th’s stretched out profile left three single prints and multiple anomalies, structure that poor is often repaired in future sessions. Depending on how Monday’s overnight session trades and where price opens, the 9 wide POC could act as a magnet and also potential resistance during Tuesday’s pit session if price opens below it, being mindful of the L period rally high at 2135.75. Any trade that occurs above Monday’s high at 2136.75 during Tuesday’s pit session will be another new all time.

new-all-time-high-on-S&P-eminis

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Calm before the upcoming Brexit Storm?

twelve-point-S&P-trading-range-within-overnight-session

Early trade Tuesday in ‘A’ period (the first half hour trading period on the above S&P chart) stopped exactly at the base of the spike from Monday, which also coincided with the overnight high and overnight session’s half-back level, very mechanical day and short term traders references. Price sold from there down to just a tick below the overnight session low, another very mechanical, visual trader’s reference.

Tuesday’s trading day was contained within the 12 point overnight range from Monday, forming a very prominent point of control at 2079.50. It is also another inside day, trading completely within the previous day’s range.

Being another inside day, possible trade scenarios (again, barring another gap open) for the next trading session would be for price to look outside of either end of balance and accelerate, or look outside and fail, returning within the balance. If look outside of balance and fails the destination trade is the opposite end of the balance, and potentially beyond. Any breakout of balance should have better odds of follow through if price first visits the very wide point of control from Tuesday at 2079.50 and then reverses.

There is also the possibility of price staying within balance, but with the upcoming Brexit vote that might be the lowest odds of the scenarios. Existing Home Sales and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee are also scheduled for 10:00 AM EST Wednesday, followed by the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 AM EST, each of which could cause volatility.

Calm before the brexit storm?

On Thursday, June 23 The United Kingdom will decide whether the U.K. will remain a part of the European Union. Polling results will be reported throughout Thursday’s U.S. trading day, with the official announcement expected to be released early Friday morning, June 24th.

Significant market activity is expected for later this week resulting from the Brexit vote.

More information on the upcoming Brexit referendum can be read here.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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