Tag Archives: overnight high

Balance Within Overnight Range

Large gaps are rarely filled the day after they are created. This held true on Wednesday after price opened near the top of Tuesday’s range, which had gapped open 11+ points above Monday’s range. Price was contained completely inside the overnight range, with the day’s low exactly at the overnight low and the high of the day just two ticks below the overnight session high.

S&P 500 emini overnight range
Overnight range

For the third consecutive day overnight inventory was close to 100% long going into the start of the regular session, setting up the possibility of a larger liquidation break in the near future. The overnight inventory is considered long if the majority of trade had occurred above the prior day session’s settle.

day session contained within overnight range
ES day session contained within overnight range

During the recent rally and breakout above the prior three week range, price rallied often from very visual price references, a sign of shorter timeframe traders in control, who can often easily give up their positions in the event of more serious liquidation.

Thursday’s balanced profile featured a very wide point of control at 2714.00, where all but one 30 minute market profile period had traded through. Depending on where price opens, that level could act as early support or resistance on Thursday.

Wednesday’s settle at 2709.75 was just above at the half-way mark between the January all time high and the February correction low at the 2708.00 level. Acceptance below Wednesday’s close could pressure recent longs and test the weak reference at Wednesday’s low, and potentially target the 2700 level and the top of the unfilled gap at 2692.50.

If the rally continues, visual references within striking distance to the upside include the botttom and top of the unfilled gap from 3/16 at 2745.25 and 2752.75, respectively.



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Double distribution at new all time high

double distribution at new all time high

After setting another new record high in the overnight trading session at 2747.75, Monday’s regular session opened inside the prior day’s range, above the late spike in the profile at 2735.00. Overnight highs and lows are always references for the following day trading session.

Price one timeframed higher from the opening period until reaching the overnight high, to the tick, in J period, and formed a double distribution in the profile chart above 2745.00 before setting another new regular session all time high at 2748.50 in the final 30 minute period.

With two unfilled daily gaps from the prior week the risk for longs appears to be high, which increases the odds for at least a short term liquidation break. But the market is still one timeframing higher on the monthly chart, 13 consecutive months, and all trends remain up.

Looking at each of Monday’s distribution as a separate balance, depending n where price opens, balance trading scenarios could apply: look either above or below a distribution and find acceptance higher/lower, look above or below a distribution and fail – targeting the opposite end, or remain in balance (probably lowest of odds).

There are only two ticks of excess at the new all time high, but depending on where price opens on Tuesday, there could be significant excess on the daily bar chart. Something to carry forward if a liquidation break does occur.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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