Large gaps are rarely filled the day after they are created. This held true on Wednesday after price opened near the top of Tuesday’s range, which had gapped open 11+ points above Monday’s range. Price was contained completely inside the overnight range, with the day’s low exactly at the overnight low and the high of the day just two ticks below the overnight session high.
For the third consecutive day overnight inventory was close to 100% long going into the start of the regular session, setting up the possibility of a larger liquidation break in the near future. The overnight inventory is considered long if the majority of trade had occurred above the prior day session’s settle.
During the recent rally and breakout above the prior three week range, price rallied often from very visual price references, a sign of shorter timeframe traders in control, who can often easily give up their positions in the event of more serious liquidation.
Thursday’s balanced profile featured a very wide point of control at 2714.00, where all but one 30 minute market profile period had traded through. Depending on where price opens, that level could act as early support or resistance on Thursday.
Wednesday’s settle at 2709.75 was just above at the half-way mark between the January all time high and the February correction low at the 2708.00 level. Acceptance below Wednesday’s close could pressure recent longs and test the weak reference at Wednesday’s low, and potentially target the 2700 level and the top of the unfilled gap at 2692.50.
If the rally continues, visual references within striking distance to the upside include the botttom and top of the unfilled gap from 3/16 at 2745.25 and 2752.75, respectively.
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