Tag Archives: overnight high

Double distribution at new all time high

double distribution at new all time high

After setting another new record high in the overnight trading session at 2747.75, Monday’s regular session opened inside the prior day’s range, above the late spike in the profile at 2735.00. Overnight highs and lows are always references for the following day trading session.

Price one timeframed higher from the opening period until reaching the overnight high, to the tick, in J period, and formed a double distribution in the profile chart above 2745.00 before setting another new regular session all time high at 2748.50 in the final 30 minute period.

With two unfilled daily gaps from the prior week the risk for longs appears to be high, which increases the odds for at least a short term liquidation break. But the market is still one timeframing higher on the monthly chart, 13 consecutive months, and all trends remain up.

Looking at each of Monday’s distribution as a separate balance, depending n where price opens, balance trading scenarios could apply: look either above or below a distribution and find acceptance higher/lower, look above or below a distribution and fail – targeting the opposite end, or remain in balance (probably lowest of odds).

There are only two ticks of excess at the new all time high, but depending on where price opens on Tuesday, there could be significant excess on the daily bar chart. Something to carry forward if a liquidation break does occur.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Another new all time high in the S&P eminis

ES-new-alltime-high-july14-2016

After the fourth gap higher opening in the past 5 trading sessions, and another new all time high set at 2168.00 during the 25 point overnight session, the ES opened 14 points above its previous close but couldn’t manage more than a 10 point range during pit session trading hours. Three of those gaps remain unfilled.

In the opening 30 minute market profile ‘A’ period the ES traded down exactly to the half back level from the overnight session, and the lower end of its upper distibution (a very visual, mechanical short term traders reference level), before “rallying” 8 points to set another new all time pit session high at 2163, five points shy of the overnight high.

From C period the market one timeframed lower for 7 consecutive periods, eventually taking out the previous weak A period low in H period but did not form a second, lower distribution and re-entered the earlier initial balance. The bounce off the lows left a poor low (just one tick of excess between the H and I periods).

Thursday’s profile is in balance. The wide point of control at 2157.50 and the late rally L/M period high at 2160.75 could be short term trading references for Friday.

If price takes out Thursday’s poor low and accelerates lower, the top of the previous two day balance from 7/12, 7/13 at 2150.75 comes into focus, acceptance back within that range could easily target the wide naked point of control at 2145.25 and the lower end of that two day balance at 2138. To the upside, the new all time high made in the after hours market at 2168 could be revisited.

The market is still in rally mode from the Brexit lows, with the daily chart one timeframing higher for seven consecutive periods, while the weekly chart is one timeframing higher for three. There is the potential for the monthly chart to finally show meaningful excess for July, but that won’t be determined until trading begins in August.

Thursday’s overnight session could have some volatilty as Chinese GDP, Retail Sales and Industrial Production reports are scheduled to for release.

Friday is also a busy day for the U.S. economic calendar as Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Survey reports are due out at 8:30 EST, with Business Inventories and Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM EST.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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New S&P 500 emini All Time High

ES-all-time-high-July-11-2016-market-profile-splitview

After setting a new all time high during the overnight session, the ES gap opened higher on Monday, failed to reach the overnight high in A period by two ticks, sold off to fill the gap from July 8th by one tick in B period, then one timeframed higher for the next 5 market profile 30 minute trading periods, setting a new all time high on the S&P emini September futures contract at 2136.75.

More mechanical buying in J, K and L periods formed a three TPO wide selling ledge, which was breached late in the day in an M period liquidation break, but the 9 wide point of control at 2133.75 limited downside continuation.

Monday’s S&P all time high was achieved on low NYSE volume of 3.2 billion. Although value was clearly higher on the day, the mechanical nature of the earlier bounce off the previous day’s high along with the slow pace to the session was indicative of short term traders in control of the trading session.

July 8th’s stretched out profile left three single prints and multiple anomalies, structure that poor is often repaired in future sessions. Depending on how Monday’s overnight session trades and where price opens, the 9 wide POC could act as a magnet and also potential resistance during Tuesday’s pit session if price opens below it, being mindful of the L period rally high at 2135.75. Any trade that occurs above Monday’s high at 2136.75 during Tuesday’s pit session will be another new all time.

new-all-time-high-on-S&P-eminis

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