Tag Archives: overnight high

Balance Within Overnight Range

Large gaps are rarely filled the day after they are created. This held true on Wednesday after price opened near the top of Tuesday’s range, which had gapped open 11+ points above Monday’s range. Price was contained completely inside the overnight range, with the day’s low exactly at the overnight low and the high of the day just two ticks below the overnight session high.

S&P 500 emini overnight range
Overnight range

For the third consecutive day overnight inventory was close to 100% long going into the start of the regular session, setting up the possibility of a larger liquidation break in the near future. The overnight inventory is considered long if the majority of trade had occurred above the prior day session’s settle.

day session contained within overnight range
ES day session contained within overnight range

During the recent rally and breakout above the prior three week range, price rallied often from very visual price references, a sign of shorter timeframe traders in control, who can often easily give up their positions in the event of more serious liquidation.

Thursday’s balanced profile featured a very wide point of control at 2714.00, where all but one 30 minute market profile period had traded through. Depending on where price opens, that level could act as early support or resistance on Thursday.

Wednesday’s settle at 2709.75 was just above at the half-way mark between the January all time high and the February correction low at the 2708.00 level. Acceptance below Wednesday’s close could pressure recent longs and test the weak reference at Wednesday’s low, and potentially target the 2700 level and the top of the unfilled gap at 2692.50.

If the rally continues, visual references within striking distance to the upside include the botttom and top of the unfilled gap from 3/16 at 2745.25 and 2752.75, respectively.



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Double distribution at new all time high

double distribution at new all time high

After setting another new record high in the overnight trading session at 2747.75, Monday’s regular session opened inside the prior day’s range, above the late spike in the profile at 2735.00. Overnight highs and lows are always references for the following day trading session.

Price one timeframed higher from the opening period until reaching the overnight high, to the tick, in J period, and formed a double distribution in the profile chart above 2745.00 before setting another new regular session all time high at 2748.50 in the final 30 minute period.

With two unfilled daily gaps from the prior week the risk for longs appears to be high, which increases the odds for at least a short term liquidation break. But the market is still one timeframing higher on the monthly chart, 13 consecutive months, and all trends remain up.

Looking at each of Monday’s distribution as a separate balance, depending n where price opens, balance trading scenarios could apply: look either above or below a distribution and find acceptance higher/lower, look above or below a distribution and fail – targeting the opposite end, or remain in balance (probably lowest of odds).

There are only two ticks of excess at the new all time high, but depending on where price opens on Tuesday, there could be significant excess on the daily bar chart. Something to carry forward if a liquidation break does occur.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Another new all time high in the S&P eminis

ES-new-alltime-high-july14-2016

After the fourth gap higher opening in the past 5 trading sessions, and another new all time high set at 2168.00 during the 25 point overnight session, the ES opened 14 points above its previous close but couldn’t manage more than a 10 point range during pit session trading hours. Three of those gaps remain unfilled.

In the opening 30 minute market profile ‘A’ period the ES traded down exactly to the half back level from the overnight session, and the lower end of its upper distibution (a very visual, mechanical short term traders reference level), before “rallying” 8 points to set another new all time pit session high at 2163, five points shy of the overnight high.

From C period the market one timeframed lower for 7 consecutive periods, eventually taking out the previous weak A period low in H period but did not form a second, lower distribution and re-entered the earlier initial balance. The bounce off the lows left a poor low (just one tick of excess between the H and I periods).

Thursday’s profile is in balance. The wide point of control at 2157.50 and the late rally L/M period high at 2160.75 could be short term trading references for Friday.

If price takes out Thursday’s poor low and accelerates lower, the top of the previous two day balance from 7/12, 7/13 at 2150.75 comes into focus, acceptance back within that range could easily target the wide naked point of control at 2145.25 and the lower end of that two day balance at 2138. To the upside, the new all time high made in the after hours market at 2168 could be revisited.

The market is still in rally mode from the Brexit lows, with the daily chart one timeframing higher for seven consecutive periods, while the weekly chart is one timeframing higher for three. There is the potential for the monthly chart to finally show meaningful excess for July, but that won’t be determined until trading begins in August.

Thursday’s overnight session could have some volatilty as Chinese GDP, Retail Sales and Industrial Production reports are scheduled to for release.

Friday is also a busy day for the U.S. economic calendar as Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales and Empire State Manufacturing Survey reports are due out at 8:30 EST, with Business Inventories and Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM EST.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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