Tag Archives: value area

ES Balances After New All Time High

Tuesday’s Market Profile chart featured an opening period high that exactly matched the overnight Globex and newest all time high at 2593.50, and the low of the day in F period exactly matched the single print from the 11/3 profile at 2580.75.

ES balance after new all time high
ES traded lower after tagging the overnight and new all time high to the tick, balances above upper distribution from the November 3rd profile.

The D period high was a single tick (very mechanical) below the open print of the day session. With short sellers not getting much more for their efforts, the market rallied back to half back at the close, but not too far above the 8 TPO wide point of control at 2485.50.

split view profile chart 11-7-2017
Split view market profile chart 11-7-2017

Tuesday’s earlier I period rally high was also just a single tick below the half back level on the day, signaling that the market was probably being controlled by mainly shorter and day time frame traders, and most likely not longer term selling involved. NYSE daily market volume was also moderate at 3.6 billion. The value area had developed as overlapping to lower for the session.

Thursday, November 9th could bring the release of Trump’s new tax reform bill, with it should bring notable volatility.

The balance between the Tuesdays rally high at 2587.50 and low at 2580.75 could warrant some early attention on Wednesday. Price acceptance with developing value below Tuesdays low could lead to further liquidation ahead of the tax plan, potentially testing the lower anomalies and low of day from 11/3.

Acceptance or short covering above 2587.50 could first target the potentially weak D period high at Tuesday’s open, and possibly test the new all time high or the 3 ticks of excess below it.

The 2600.00 psychological level could be on the radar for short/intermediate traders, who apparently are still in control of the current market.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Trump Tax Plan, New FOMC Chair Brings Little Volatility

Thursday’s profile featured an overlapping to lower value area but a point of control that migrated higher following early selling.

 split view market profile chart
Market Profile daily chart. Split view market profile chart for 11/2/17, within a five day balance

The market stopped one timeframing higher on the weekly chart last week, although it still closed as an outside week. Price has stopped one time one timeframing higher on the daily chart on Thursday, after five consecutive regular hour trading sessions of one time framing higher.

For any potential meaningful change to the downside, price would have to find acceptance back below the base of the late day spike above the near matching F/G/H/J/K/L bar highs that were all within one tick of one another. The wide point of control at 2573.00 would be the next downside reference.

The matching K/L period lows at 2571.00 were very mechanical and probably have decent odds of being revisited. Price rallied from there to spike above the L bar high in M period, possibly just as a stop run by shorter timer frame traders.

Generally, acceptance or rejection of a late day spike on the next trading day either confirms or rejects the direction of the late day price probe – opening and remaining above it is positive, opening below it is negative, and opening within it shows possible acceptance and a place where two sided trade can take place.

Acceptance above Thursday’s POC and base of the late spike probe higher targets Thursday’s poor high at 2578.25 and potentially the excess above the prior week’s high at 2580.75. Removing that excess challenges the latest all time high from 11/1 at 2585.50. The very psychological 2600 level could next be on the radar in the event of a rally to new all time highs.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Inside Day Below All Time High

Inside day to begin the week following the latest all time high last Friday. It is the third inside day in the last five regular trading sessions, emphasizing the current low confidence trading environment. Monday’s profile repaired the anomalies in the previous regular session’s profile.

inside day below all time high

There are six ticks of excess above 2579.25 on the market profile chart below the all time high at 2580.75. Acceptance above Monday’s high at 2577.50 could test that excess and the possibility of another new all time high. Acceleration/acceptance below Monday’s low at 2565.50 targets last Friday’s low at 2563.25, with the prominent naked point of control from 10/26 at 2560.25 and the low at 2555.50 within striking distance.

The prior week closed as an outside week to the upside, trading below the previous week’s low and closing above its high,
which could be construed as positive for higher prices. However, Monday’s price action did not test the weekly and latest all time high, and with value and the point of control developing lower, instead left excess at the high.

President Trump is expected to announce his choice for new Federal Reserve Chairman on Thursday, November 2nd, which could bring severe volatility to world markets. The odds might favor more of a balancing market until then, barring of course any other new major news events before that, including any unexpected surprises about President Trump’s alleged collusion with Russia or his tax reform plan, or North Korea’s nuclear missile program.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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