Tag Archives: value area

Gap Lower, Selloff Following China Trade Tariffs

market profile spike

Opening within the late spike could confirm the short term down trend with good odds of retesting Thursday’s low. Opening below the spike and Thursday’s low is a sign of weakness confirming price did not travel far enough on Thursday to cut off the selling. Further liquidation could eventually lead to a retest of the February 9th correction low.

Opening above the spike would be more positive, targeting Thursday’s value and possibly the POC. If short covering occurs price could target the value area high and the B period excess single prints from Thursday’s profile. However, large gaps are not usually filled the day after they are created, so the odds would probably favor more of a rotational balancing day.



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Inside, Balancing Day Within 5 Day Trading Range




5 day balance, inside day
Inside day inside of a five day trading range

Value developed as overlapping to lower Thursday after price sold off from exactly at the prior day’s very wide point of control, trading into Wednesday’s late lower excess.

Split-view Market Profile Chart 7-22-18:

overlapping to lower value areas
Overlapping to lower value area

Developing value could be an indication of attempted price direction on Friday. Thursday’s upper value area is just above the midpoint of the 5 day range.

With the inside day, possible balance trading scenarios could see price:

  • Remain in balance (which could include slightly extending Thursday’s range on either side)
  • Look above or below the one day balance and accelerate / find acceptance at higher or lower prices, potentially targeting the 5 day range high or low
  • Look above or below Thursday’s range and fail to find acceptance, returning back into the balance. The potential would still exist to test the opposite extreme of the 5 day range.

Depending on where price opens, especially if a gap opening on Friday (good oods with recent overnight volatility) the same scenarios could apply regarding the 5 day balance: Look above or below the range and accelerate/find acceptance, look above or below and fail (returning back into range), or remain within the 5 day balance.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)



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ES Balances After New All Time High

Tuesday’s Market Profile chart featured an opening period high that exactly matched the overnight Globex and newest all time high at 2593.50, and the low of the day in F period exactly matched the single print from the 11/3 profile at 2580.75.

ES balance after new all time high
ES traded lower after tagging the overnight and new all time high to the tick, balances above upper distribution from the November 3rd profile.

The D period high was a single tick (very mechanical) below the open print of the day session. With short sellers not getting much more for their efforts, the market rallied back to half back at the close, but not too far above the 8 TPO wide point of control at 2485.50.

split view profile chart 11-7-2017
Split view market profile chart 11-7-2017

Tuesday’s earlier I period rally high was also just a single tick below the half back level on the day, signaling that the market was probably being controlled by mainly shorter and day time frame traders, and most likely not longer term selling involved. NYSE daily market volume was also moderate at 3.6 billion. The value area had developed as overlapping to lower for the session.

Thursday, November 9th could bring the release of Trump’s new tax reform bill, with it should bring notable volatility.

The balance between the Tuesdays rally high at 2587.50 and low at 2580.75 could warrant some early attention on Wednesday. Price acceptance with developing value below Tuesdays low could lead to further liquidation ahead of the tax plan, potentially testing the lower anomalies and low of day from 11/3.

Acceptance or short covering above 2587.50 could first target the potentially weak D period high at Tuesday’s open, and possibly test the new all time high or the 3 ticks of excess below it.

The 2600.00 psychological level could be on the radar for short/intermediate traders, who apparently are still in control of the current market.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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