Tag Archives: value area

Value Lower, Poor Low

lower value area
No acceptance above prior day’s lower distribtuion

The market dipped below the psychological 2800 level, leaving a poor low at 2798.25. Failure to find acceptance back above the late rally high and value area high from Monday could lead to a retest of the 2800 level and the poor low. A short covering rally above 2812 could target the excess at Monday’s high, potentially the excess single prints and upper distribution low from Friday’s selloff.

Tuesday is the last trading day of the month and the beginning of the two day FOMC meeting. The volatility events for the week will probably be on Wednesday at the release of the FOMC minutes and the release of the monthly jobs data on Friday. The prior weekly low is at 2796.00. The market has been one timeframing higher on the weekly chart for the past 4 consecutive weeks.

lower value after selloff
lower value after selloff



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Gap Lower, Selloff Following China Trade Tariffs

market profile spike

Opening within the late spike could confirm the short term down trend with good odds of retesting Thursday’s low. Opening below the spike and Thursday’s low is a sign of weakness confirming price did not travel far enough on Thursday to cut off the selling. Further liquidation could eventually lead to a retest of the February 9th correction low.

Opening above the spike would be more positive, targeting Thursday’s value and possibly the POC. If short covering occurs price could target the value area high and the B period excess single prints from Thursday’s profile. However, large gaps are not usually filled the day after they are created, so the odds would probably favor more of a rotational balancing day.



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Inside, Balancing Day Within 5 Day Trading Range




5 day balance, inside day
Inside day inside of a five day trading range

Value developed as overlapping to lower Thursday after price sold off from exactly at the prior day’s very wide point of control, trading into Wednesday’s late lower excess.

Split-view Market Profile Chart 7-22-18:

overlapping to lower value areas
Overlapping to lower value area

Developing value could be an indication of attempted price direction on Friday. Thursday’s upper value area is just above the midpoint of the 5 day range.

With the inside day, possible balance trading scenarios could see price:

  • Remain in balance (which could include slightly extending Thursday’s range on either side)
  • Look above or below the one day balance and accelerate / find acceptance at higher or lower prices, potentially targeting the 5 day range high or low
  • Look above or below Thursday’s range and fail to find acceptance, returning back into the balance. The potential would still exist to test the opposite extreme of the 5 day range.

Depending on where price opens, especially if a gap opening on Friday (good oods with recent overnight volatility) the same scenarios could apply regarding the 5 day balance: Look above or below the range and accelerate/find acceptance, look above or below and fail (returning back into range), or remain within the 5 day balance.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)



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