Tag Archives: short covering

Short covering into the close



With long overnight inventory coming into the regular trading session, price opened above the base of the spike from the prior session but failed remain above it, trading back into the spike in the second half hour period. In times of high volatility, standard market profile trading references are not often as in reliable “normal” trading environments.

short covering negates prior spike

The high of the third period (30 minute) bar could not get back above the spike, reversing at it exactly before selling lower into Friday’s lower distribution in the fourth period.

Split view profile 3-26-18
Split view profile 3-26-18

Price one timeframed higher off the D period low, eventually rallying into the close, to trade as high as 2662.75, one tick below the top of the spike from the 3/22 profile.

Some of Monday’s rally appeared to be very mechanical, for example, bouncing near the current session midpoint at the G & H bar lows, and rallying when the K period low failed to trade back below the opening (A) period high. NYSE daily volume was also considerably light compared to the size of the market rally, at only 2.4 billion shares.

Value for the session was overlapping to lower, despite the apparent strong rally into the close.

Monday’s stretched out profile repaired the anomalies from the prior session’s profile, but left more anomalies of its own. Anomalies are often repaired soon after they are formed. If price opens within range the odds could favor their repair, at least partially, on Tuesday considering the “mechanical” nature of Monday’s rally.

If the rally continues, price could target the point of control from 3/22 at 2672.50 and the un-repaired anomalies from that profile. The next potential targets would be the high from that session at 2698.25, the bottom of the unfilled gap above, and 2712.50, the top of the unfilled gap from 3/21.

With a light news week ahead and the futures market closed on Good Friday, the odds could favor more balance the remainder of the pre-Holiday week.

The longer and intermediate term trends are balancing, trading in a range from the February correction low at 2535.25 and, arguably, the recovery high at 2807.50. The short term trend, on the daily bar chart, is down with a two day balance.

Currently, March is an inside month.



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Short covering following gap open lower



The market rallied following an overnight selloff on the news that Trump’s top economic adviser, Gary Cohn, had announced his resignation.

Overnight inventory was 100% short leading to a gap opening lower on Wednesday.

short covering from overnight inventory

Thursday’s rally was not particularly on high volume. NYSE daily volume was also relatively light at 3.35 billion.

Wednesday’s profile was balanced. Notable Market Profile references for Thursday ahead of contract rollover:

market profile trading references

Balance trading scenarios could apply regarding Wednesday’s balance high or low; Look above or below the range and accelerate/find acceptance, http://es-traders.com/short-covering-following-gap-open-lower/?preview=truelook above or below and fail, or remain in balance (probably lowest of odds).



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Multible Distributions



The market appeared to be in short covering mode ater the weekend. Often, when there are multiple anomalies in the profile it is a sign of shorter time frame, momentum based trading, leaving decent odds of at least some of the poor structure being repaired in a future session, if not the next day.

Short covering rally, poor high in market profile chart

Monday’s pullback low at 2708.50 could be an early reference on Tuesday’s regular session, depending on where price opens.

Acceptance above 2708.50 potentially targets Monday’s point of control, the prior close and potentially the high, which also a poor high with no TPO excess, at 2727.75 and the high from 3/1 at 2731.00.

Other potential targets above could include the single print at 2737.25 from 2/28 and the point of control from that profile at 2747.50 and the high of that day at 2762.00, which is also another poor high.

Split view market profile chart 3-5-18

Price acceptance back below the upper distribution targets the single prints and the anomaly below that balance, and potentially the high of the lower distribution from Monday at 2684.50.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)



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