Following the rollover from the September ES futures contract (U) into December (Z), the market formed a two day balance leaving a poor, no excess high and weak, near matching lows in the prior two market profile daily charts. The gap at 2900 remains unfilled.
No fireworks following the release of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday, with the market seemingly ignoring another round of detrimental news regarding the President from his former attorney, Michael Cohen. Price corrected the very short overnight inventory (the Globex session low was at 2846.25), trading in a lackluster 12 point balanced range during the regular hours trading session.
Wednesday’s regular session low was exactly at the the prior day’s half back level, a very visual short term trading reference, and probably has good odds of being revisited.
Price acceptance above Wednesday’s one day balance and poor high targets the no excess high from 8/21 at 2874.00, and potentially the all time high.
Acceptance below the 8/22 range could target the single print from the 8/17 double distribution at 2848.50, and potentially the near matching lows from 8/16 and 8/17 at 2834.75/2835.00.
Other potential scenarios regarding Wednesday’s balance could see either a “look above or below balance and fail”, with price targeting the wide point of control and possibly the opposite end of the balance, or remain in balance in or around the prior range.
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