Almost a Holiday type of trade as volume is still split between the December and March futures contracts.
Notable Market Profile references for Tuesday on the March 2018 contract are the L/M period matching lows at the point of control, two ticks above half back at 2659.00, and Monday’s late high, which corresponds to the excess single prints above 2665.00 from the 12/4 profile, when the market made it’s latest all time high at 2668.00
Potential trade scenarios could include 1) look above or below balance and fail 2) look above/below balance and find acceptance at higher or lower prices 3) remain balanced.
Failure to take out the excess and and the all time high from 12/4 could see price rotate back into Monday’s balance, retesting the L/M low and potentially the low of day. Price acceptance below 2654.50 could target the prominent point of control from 12/8 at 2650.50. Further liquidation targets the high and low of the gap from 12/7.
One day balance in the ES ahead of the March 2018 contract rollover. Potential balance trading scenarios could include:
– Look above Wednesday’s range high/balance and find acceptance, potentially targeting the single print from the low of the 12/5 upper distribution at 2638.00.
– Look above the balance and fail, with good odds of retesting Wednesday’s prominent point of control and potentially the opposite end of the range, and potentially lower.
– Look below the one day balance and find acceptance and build value at lower prices, potentially testing the 2605.00 low from 12/1 and the prior weekly low at 2597.75.
– Look below Balance and fail, returning back into the range and test the wide POC, and potentially retesting Wendesday’s high.
The odds, ahead of contract rollover, could probably favor another balanced type of session on Thursday in the absense of any major news events.
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