Tag Archives: single print

ES Balances After New All Time High

Tuesday’s Market Profile chart featured an opening period high that exactly matched the overnight Globex and newest all time high at 2593.50, and the low of the day in F period exactly matched the single print from the 11/3 profile at 2580.75.

ES balance after new all time high
ES traded lower after tagging the overnight and new all time high to the tick, balances above upper distribution from the November 3rd profile.

The D period high was a single tick (very mechanical) below the open print of the day session. With short sellers not getting much more for their efforts, the market rallied back to half back at the close, but not too far above the 8 TPO wide point of control at 2485.50.

split view profile chart 11-7-2017
Split view market profile chart 11-7-2017

Tuesday’s earlier I period rally high was also just a single tick below the half back level on the day, signaling that the market was probably being controlled by mainly shorter and day time frame traders, and most likely not longer term selling involved. NYSE daily market volume was also moderate at 3.6 billion. The value area had developed as overlapping to lower for the session.

Thursday, November 9th could bring the release of Trump’s new tax reform bill, with it should bring notable volatility.

The balance between the Tuesdays rally high at 2587.50 and low at 2580.75 could warrant some early attention on Wednesday. Price acceptance with developing value below Tuesdays low could lead to further liquidation ahead of the tax plan, potentially testing the lower anomalies and low of day from 11/3.

Acceptance or short covering above 2587.50 could first target the potentially weak D period high at Tuesday’s open, and possibly test the new all time high or the 3 ticks of excess below it.

The 2600.00 psychological level could be on the radar for short/intermediate traders, who apparently are still in control of the current market.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Three Day Balance

The ES has yet to find acceptance back above the 2449.25 single print and into the upper distributions from the 8/17 and 8/22 market profile daily charts.

three day balance in ES

Opening near the high of the prior day’s small 9 point, balanced inside day, a classic “look above balance and fail” scenario quickly played out early Thursday, as price traded 5 ticks above the prior high but a tick short of the single print below the upper distribution from Tuesday’s triple distribution profile.

The opening 30 minute period selling left a long string of unfilled single prints (10 points) and traded through Wednesdays entire 9 point range, but first half hour NYSE volume was relatively low at only 283,515, suggesting the early selling would not be lasting.

End of day NYSE volume under 2.7 billion. There was also no “outside day”, where price trades above or below the prior day’s range but closes outside of the opposite end. Not a sign of strength by the bears.

Value developed lower Thursday with a widening point of control hovering around 2440.75 where it closed, matching the CME settlement..

Although 2454.00 is the actual high of the three day balance, the single print below Tuesdays upper distribution at 2449.25 could be important early on Friday if price opens within Thursday’s range.

Price acceptance back above 2449.50 could target Tuesday’s high at 2454.00, and potentially tests the upper distribution high from 8/17 and excess single prints above 2459.75. Acceptance above 2460.00 brings the weak matching highs from 8/9, 8/16 at 2474.00 into focus.

Failure to trade above 2449.00 keeps the short term downtrend in tact and should draw price, minimally, back to Thursday’s wide part of Thursday’s profile, targeting Thursday’s settle and point of control at 2440.75.

If price opens below 2440.75 that level could be resistance, with high odds of price testing the previous two daily lows at 2434.50 and 2432.75 (top of gap), and potentially the unfilled gap from 8/21 at 2429.50.

On Friday the Jackson Hole summit continues in Wyoming with Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaking at 10am EST (1400GMT) and Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, at 3pm EST (1900GMT), among other Fed speakers. Volatility is likely.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Three Distributions, Anomalies in Profile Chart




Friday’s ES regular trading hour session ended the light volume holiday week closing with three separate distributions/anomalies in the profile.

If price opens inside Friday’s upper distribution on Monday, balance rules could apply:

– Look either above or below the poor high at 2425.00 or late pullback low at 2421.50 and accelerate/find acceptance
– Look above or below balance and fail, returning into and targeting the opposite end of the distribution
– Remain balanced (lowest of odds because of the small range).

If a gap open higher, monitor price for acceptance back into the upper distribution.

Price acceptance below Friday’s late pullback low and low of the upper distribution at 2421.25/.50 targets the middle and lower distributions from Friday. Acceptance back into the lower distribution below 2418.00 potentially targets Friday’s low at 2412.00 and the current low of the month at 2405.25. Acceptance below 2405.25 targets the June low at 2402.25, challenging the monthly higher one timeframing.

Potential targets (carrying forward) if price finds acceptance above Friday’s high:

– July 5th’s prominent point of control at 2428.50
– July 5th high at 2423.25
– Poor high from 7/3 at 2436.50
– Poor/matching highs from 6/28, 6/29 at 2440.50
– Poor high from 6/26 at 2447.50
– All time high at 2451.50, only two ticks of TPO chart excess

Three poor highs above Friday’s poor high:

three poor highs above market

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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