Calm before the storm, or balance before potentiality assaulting the psychological 2500 level? Will Tuesday’s small 7 point, one day balance a potential island reversal off the new all time high, or just a pause as the market continues higher?
More weaker, mechanical buying at the low of the day from a tick below the overnight half back, and more buying close to the open in E, F, K & L periods:
Late buying at the close ended the regular trading session left only one tick of excess on the daily Market Profile TPO chart, but there is substantial excess again at the high on the weekly and monthly bar charts.
Balance trading scenarios that potentially could play out Wednesday are:
– Look above the new all time high at 2494.75, find acceptance on its way to 2500
– Look above 2494.75 and fail, return back into the balance targeting the wide POC and low from Tuesday and the 2487 gap fill.
– Look below Tuesday’s low and fail, returning back into the small range, targeting the POC and potentially challenge Tuesday’s all time high and the 2500 level.
– Look below Tuesday’s low and accelerate lower.
Trading with acceptance back into Monday’s range should test Monday’s late pullback low at 2483.75, acceleration/acceptance below that level targets the excess single prints and low from Monday, and potentially the gap fill at 2474.00.
Acceptance back below 2474 and into the previous three day balance targets the two very prominent POCS at 2461.25 and the low of the balance at 2456.00, which is a poor low with no excess.
Note: To date, all new all time highs that have been made in an overnight session have all been revisited during a regular trading session. However, they could could remain for a very long time. At the time of this posting a new overnight high, and new all time Globex high, was put it at 2495.50. Early acceptance above or below that level could be key on Wednesday. Failing to find acceptance above the new high puts price into Tuesday’s balance, where the balance scenarios above could play out.
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