Tag Archives: gap

Small Range, Balanced Day at New All Time High

Calm before the storm, or balance before potentiality assaulting the psychological 2500 level? Will Tuesday’s small 7 point, one day balance a potential island reversal off the new all time high, or just a pause as the market continues higher?

7 point range at new all time high
Small 7 point range at new all time high

More weaker, mechanical buying at the low of the day from a tick below the overnight half back, and more buying close to the open in E, F, K & L periods:

split view market profile chart shows mechanical buying around open
Split view market profile chart shows mechanical buying around open price

Late buying at the close ended the regular trading session left only one tick of excess on the daily Market Profile TPO chart, but there is substantial excess again at the high on the weekly and monthly bar charts.

Balance trading scenarios that potentially could play out Wednesday are:

– Look above the new all time high at 2494.75, find acceptance on its way to 2500
– Look above 2494.75 and fail, return back into the balance targeting the wide POC and low from Tuesday and the 2487 gap fill.
– Look below Tuesday’s low and fail, returning back into the small range, targeting the POC and potentially challenge Tuesday’s all time high and the 2500 level.
– Look below Tuesday’s low and accelerate lower.

Trading with acceptance back into Monday’s range should test Monday’s late pullback low at 2483.75, acceleration/acceptance below that level targets the excess single prints and low from Monday, and potentially the gap fill at 2474.00.

Acceptance back below 2474 and into the previous three day balance targets the two very prominent POCS at 2461.25 and the low of the balance at 2456.00, which is a poor low with no excess.

Note: To date, all new all time highs that have been made in an overnight session have all been revisited during a regular trading session. However, they could could remain for a very long time. At the time of this posting a new overnight high, and new all time Globex high, was put it at 2495.50. Early acceptance above or below that level could be key on Wednesday. Failing to find acceptance above the new high puts price into Tuesday’s balance, where the balance scenarios above could play out.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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ES – Gap and Go Higher to New Record Highs

Large gaps are very rarely filled on the day they are formed, that statement holding true on Monday as price rallied higher following a 13.5 point gap opening from above the prior settle. The rally off the open repaired the remaining poor highs in the profiles from 9/5 (2469.00) and 9/1 (2477.50), and led to another new contract adjusted record high (December) at 2487.00.

ES gap and go rally to new all time high
Gap open higher to begin the week often is the beginning of a new short term trading range

Early focus Tuesday could be on the late (M period) pullback low at 2483.75. Acceptance above that level could maintain Monday’s bullish tone and easily test Monday’s point of control (migrated higher during the session) and close at 2485.25/.00 (the actual CME’s settle was 2485.75), and probably challenge the new contract adjusted record high at 2487.00. Anything above 2487.00 will be another new all time ES high.

ES split view profile showing late pullback low
ES split view profile

Often, large gaps higher that begin a new week can be the start of a new short term balance. If this occurs, a new balance area could begin to form from above or around the 2474.00 low, assuming Monday’s gap holds beyond one day, to the 2487.00 high or higher – including any new Globex high if one is made during the overnight session. Overnight highs and lows are always short term references.

But the 2500 psychological level is now in the sights of the bulls, and that could be what they’re shooting for. Monday’s NYSE daily volume at 3.06 billion was somewhat low for the price move higher, and the profile structure in the ES was relatively weak, with a few anomalies in need of repair, suggesting Monday’s action was predominantly controlled by short term and day time frame trades.

Depending on where price is at open, monitoring developing value could give a clue as to which way the market wants to go: continuation higher (monitoring price for potential one timeframing) and targeting the psychological 2500.00 number, acceptance back into Monday’s range and into a possible short term balance, or even a possible reversal off the new all time highs.

Late Pullback Low
Price acceptance or opening below the 2483.75 pullback low on Tuesday could imply a change in regards to Monday’s rally, and would probably have decent odds of at least testing the excess single prints below 2478.75, possibly Monday’s low. Acceptance below 2474.00 brings the three day balance high, and the unfilled gap at 2467.00, into play. If price can find acceptance back into the three day balance, obvious potential targets are the very prominent, back to back matching points of control at 2461.25, and possibly the three day balance low at 2456.00, which is also was a poor low.

Monday’s gap and go higher did not allow price to first test the back to back wide points of control, or “fairest price” from last Thursday/Friday. That could be negative for price continuation higher until revisited. However, Monday’s gap and go higher removed the significant excess that was at the all time high on all time frames. There is now just three ticks of excess, lessening the odds of it being a lasting all time high.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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