Tag Archives: selloff

Inside Month Breakout?

breakout from March inside month
Breakout below March low, an inside month

March ended as an inside month. Monday’s selloff was on relatively light NYSE market volume of 3.43 billion shares

Price mechanically traded 6 points higher at the open to just above the prior close before selling off, one timeframing lower for the first six half hour periods, breaking out below the March low at 2586.00 in the fifth period.

The market rallied off the 2552.00 session low to 2585.00 in ‘M’ period, but could not trade back into the March range. Continued acceptance below that level (and the March low at 2686.00) could target the February low at 1535.25. Monday’s point of control at 2574.25 could draw price back to it on Tuesday, and could act as either early support or resistance.

Aceptance back above the 2586.00 level could target at least some of the multiple anomalies from Monday’s stretched out profile and numerous single prints.



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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ES Selloff Fills Two Gaps, Reverses Back to Near Unchanged

The ES made yet another new all time Globex session high at 2480.25 prior to Thursday’s regular trading session open, but sold off at the open after quickly trading one tick higher, setting the newest RTH record high at 2480.50. How long will this one last?

Selloff in ES fills two gaps
Selloff in ES fills two gaps

Price quickly reentered the prior two day balance, stalling at the very prominent point of control from Wednesday, and leaving an early poor A/B period low. First half hour NYSE trading volume was much higher at 506,245.

After revisiting the very prominent point of control from Wednesday at 2475.50, price traded above and below the two day balance high in 6 of the first 7 half hour periods, mechanically trading to a single tick below the open print in C, E and F periods before the sharp selloff in G accelerated through the two day balance low, and filled the gap from 7/24.

ES split view profile selloff from all time high
split view profile

When price reenters a prior balance area, the odds are good that it could trade to the opposite end of that balance. Selling continued in H and I periods, trading through the previous two day balance from 7/21 and 7/24, filling the gap from 7/18 at 2458.50 before finding a bottom at 2457.00.

New Money Selling?

The selloff in G period, following a sharp selloff in Nasdaq after a slew of earnings reports, occurred after price failed to trade back through the open price a tick above the matching C, E and F period highs. Very mechanical.

The selling also did not result in an outside day, as price closed back within Wednesday’s narrow range, and the 16 point bounce off the excess low suggests the move was short covering following liquidation from shorter term, emotional trading money, and probably not new longer term money. And although volume was higher, NYSE daily volume ended the day at 3.8 billion, not terribly high considering the distance price traded compared to prior sessions. Also, the DOW ended the day positive.

All that said, Friday morning before the bell is the release of the second-quarter GDP, which is expected to bring significant volatility.

Generally, after a large selloff, the odds are good that a new balance could develop within the selloff range. On Friday, depending on where price opens, early focus could be on the double distributions.

Thursday’s late rally high at 2473.00 is questionable, as it was exactly at the prior day’s close. It is also the high of the lower distribution. Because of the mechanical nature of the rally high, price could retest that level, trading back into the single prints between the two distributions. If price finds acceptance above the single print at 2475.70 and into the upper distribution, the target would potentially be a test of the all time high at 2480.50.

If the market fails to trade above 2475.75, or fails to find acceptance back into the upper distribution, Thursday’s lower excess single prints and the low at 2457.00 are the potential targets.

If the market doesn’t like the GDP numbers and sells off, multiple daily lows below 2457.00 could become potential targets, including the prior weekly low at 2448.00. The remaining unfilled gap from July (7/11) is at 2427.25.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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ES Undecided, Mechanical Buying off Prior Close as it Digests Latest POTUS News After Selloff

Split view Market Profile chart

ES mechanical buying off prior session low and current session open
split view profiles

Price repaired all of the anomalies in the prior session profile, value ended as overlapping to lower with price rallying off the prior close in I period.

Thursday’s POC/close at 2363.50 could be an important reference on Friday, acceptance below that level could see price test the mechanical G/H/I level (one tick below the prior close). The B period low was also very mechanical, at just one tick below the opening price. Both levels probably have good odds of being revised.

The short and intermediate term trends are now pointing down, with the monthly longer time frame chart balancing as price is trading back inside of April’s range. Price would have to trade below 2324.00 to stop the one timeframing higher on the monthly chart, which could be a more significant sign of change.

Acceptance above 2363.50 could see price attempt to fill in the excess single prints near the previous two session’s highs, short covering is always a possibility in an emotional news drives trading environment.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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