Tag Archives: pullback low

Gap and Go




The market rallied higher after a gap opening above the prior day’s range, leaving a stretched out profile with multiple anomalies.

gap open higher and rally

Anomalies in the profile generally have high odds of being revisited or “repaired” in a nearby future trading session, as they’re often caused by more emotionally news driven, shorter time frame and day traders.

The rally to one tick below the point of control from 11/8 was four points short of the latest regular session all time high at 2593.50. The all time Globex high, made in an overnight session, is at 2594.50.

split view profile defines late pullback low

Price had one timeframed higher from the open until J period, where the point of control had widened at 2586.75

A key early market profile reference, depending on where price opens on Friday, could be the late pullback low. Acceptance above 2583.25 could keep Thursday’s bullish momentum intact, potentially challenging Thursday’s high at 2589.50, the 11/8 high at 2592.50, and the all time regular and overnight highs (2593.50/2594.50).

Taking out the all time high would bring the psychological 2600.00 level into focus. It could also result in a “look above and fail” scenario.

Failure to find acceptance back above 2583.25 could pressure recent longs and reverse or pause the bullish sentiment from Thursday’s rally, repairing at least some of the anomalies in the profile.

Looking at each distribution from Thursday’s profile as a separate balance, or auction, balance trading scenarios could play out in regards to each: look above or below a balance and accelerate higher or lower, look above or below a balance and fail – targeting the opposite end, or remain in balance.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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“P” Formation Market Profile Chart

Opening two ticks below the previous regular session’s small range, price reentered and rallied through the balanced, inside day repairing the poor high in the profile.

"P" Formation Market Profile Chart
“P” formation in the Market Profile chart. Can be typical of short covering.

When C period opened at the B period high, leaving almost ten points of single prints in the first two periods below, the odds should have been good that many of those would be filled in.

The reversal in C period traded lower, mechanically, to the A/B single print at 2578.25 before bouncing and retesting the early high, but did not trade back into the 5+ points of excess from the opening period.

split view profile 11/13/17
Split view profile chart for 11/13/17: 2580.75 late pullback low exactly at prior 3 day balance low. Price acceptance below that level could test ‘A’ period’s lower excess in profile. Acceptance above it could keep pressure on shorts, retest highs.

Value was developing as overlapping to higher, with a point of control widening to four TPO’s at 2580.25 in the fourth period that climbed to 2581.50 by the close, as the market balanced in a narrow range at the prior day’s high.

The market was also one timeframing higher from the open, not stopping until H period, lowering the odds for any significant retracement before coming off the high in the final hour of trade.

Early focus on Tuesday, depending on where the market opens, could be on the late M period pullback low at 2580.75. Acceptance below that level could test the C period low at 2578.25 and potentially trade back into and “fill in” some of the excess single prints below.

Acceptance above the pullback low and the wide point of control and settle at 2181.50/2582.00 targets Mondays high and could bring the all time high back into play.

Technically, the session closed as an outside day as price opened below the prior day’s range but closed above it, although only by one tick.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Breakout of Balance




After the market’s failed breakout attempt of the five day balance to the downside on Tuesday, one scenario was for the market to break out and find acceptance above the five day balance high at 2454.00 on Wednesday. Potential targets were the upper distribution high from the 8/17 selloff profile at 2459.50, and the single prints above to the high from that day at 2464.00. Wednesday’s high was at 2459.75, a poor high with no excess.

breakout of balance
After a failed breakout of the 5 day balance to the downside a day before, the market broke out to the upside the next.

If price opens above 2454.00 on Thursday (the prior 5 day balance high) the higher price levels noted in Tuesday’s market profile report could still be relevant.

Acceptance above 2459.75 and back into the excess single prints from the 8/17 selling tail could first target the high from 8/17 at 2464.00, and the wide point of control at 2467.75 and remaining unrepaired anomalies from the 8/16 profile. The matching highs from 8/9 and 8/16 at 2474.00 are within striking distance if the market finds acceptance above 2464.00.

Wednesday’s late pullback low at 2453.00 could be an important early reference on Thursday, depending on where price opens. Generally, the prior balance high (2454.00) should be support if the market broke out higher on strength. If Wednesday’s pullback low at 2453.00 fails to hold and price is accepted below that level, it puts price back into the five day balance, questioning the last two day, low volume rally (NYSE daily volume was very light at 2.51 billion).

split view profile breakout of balance

Potential lower targets are the single print at 2449.50, previous resistance, acceptance below that level probably tests Wednesday’s excess buying tail. Tuesday’s lower distribution high at 2436.00 comes into focus below Wednesday’s low.

End of month options expiration should bring volatility.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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