Tag Archives: FOMC

Two day Balance – Near Matching (Weak) High and Low Ahead of FOMC

two day balance in ES ahead of FOMC, poor highs and lows
Two day balance with near matching highs and lows in market profile charts. September ES futures contract.
no excess  lows market profile charts
Multiple no excess lows in recent market profile charts beg to be repaired



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Rally Following FOMC Minutes

market profile references

After a gap open lower and balance developing below the previous day’s range, the market rallied exactly to the base of the late day spike from the prior day’s profile into the close. Value and the point of control remained lower.

The market traded higher off of very visual references suggesting shorter term traders were in control, with price bouncing exactly off the 5/18 daily low in the 3rd period, off the opening print in both D and F periods, and at the prior day’s low and 2nd period high in K period. All these levels could have good odds of being revisited.

In addition there is a 10 TPO wide point of control at 2716.50 that could draw price back towards it.

The rally stopped exactly at the spike base from Tuesday and the prior day’s close, and the profile chart also left a poor high at the close, that level could also be considered weak.

Market rallies after FOMC



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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FOMC Brings Little Volatility, New Record High

After putting in another new record high at 2507.25 early Wednesday, price balanced in just a 5 point trading range before the release of the 2pm (ET) FOMC minutes, which brought a little volatility and a sharp drop and reversal.

new all time high FOMC day

The 10 point drop in J (10th 30 minute) period reversed at a tick above the unfilled single print from the 9/15 profile at 2493.75, and rallied higher to close the session near unchanged at just a few ticks above the previous close where price traded in just a 5.5 point trading range.

Focusing on the CME settle from Wednesday at 2505.25:
If price opens within Wednesday’s range above the settle the early focus could be on the two ticks of excess at the new all time high. Removing the excess and finding acceptance above 2507.25 puts price in un-charted territory and on to another record high. All trends remain up, and the market is in its 10th consecutive month of one timeframing higher.

If price trades above Wednesday’s new all time high, adding excess to the TPO chart, but fails to find continuation higher and returns back into Wednesday’s range (a “look above and fail” scenario) – or if price opens within Wednesday’s range below the settle, which could be early resistance – the focus would shift back to the 2500 level and the prior weekly high at 2498.00.

Acceptance below 2498.00 targets Wednesday’s low at 2494.00, acceleration/acceptance back into the lower distribution from 9/15 targets the closely grouped together prior daily lows lows, setting up a potential “firecracker effect” if potential stops are triggered below. The nearest gap below from 9/11 at 2487.00 remains unfilled, and the profile from that day was poor with multiple anomalies that could be in need of repair if volatility ever returns to the market.

Another potential scenario, which is probably more likely in the absence of any lasting volatility, would see the market continue to balance within or near Wednesday’s range. But be on the lookout for increasing volume, a liquidation break could be overdue because of the mechanical nature of the recent rally and the poor structure below current price.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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