Tag Archives: FOMC

FOMC Brings Little Volatility, New Record High

After putting in another new record high at 2507.25 early Wednesday, price balanced in just a 5 point trading range before the release of the 2pm (ET) FOMC minutes, which brought a little volatility and a sharp drop and reversal.

new all time high FOMC day

The 10 point drop in J (10th 30 minute) period reversed at a tick above the unfilled single print from the 9/15 profile at 2493.75, and rallied higher to close the session near unchanged at just a few ticks above the previous close where price traded in just a 5.5 point trading range.

Focusing on the CME settle from Wednesday at 2505.25:
If price opens within Wednesday’s range above the settle the early focus could be on the two ticks of excess at the new all time high. Removing the excess and finding acceptance above 2507.25 puts price in un-charted territory and on to another record high. All trends remain up, and the market is in its 10th consecutive month of one timeframing higher.

If price trades above Wednesday’s new all time high, adding excess to the TPO chart, but fails to find continuation higher and returns back into Wednesday’s range (a “look above and fail” scenario) – or if price opens within Wednesday’s range below the settle, which could be early resistance – the focus would shift back to the 2500 level and the prior weekly high at 2498.00.

Acceptance below 2498.00 targets Wednesday’s low at 2494.00, acceleration/acceptance back into the lower distribution from 9/15 targets the closely grouped together prior daily lows lows, setting up a potential “firecracker effect” if potential stops are triggered below. The nearest gap below from 9/11 at 2487.00 remains unfilled, and the profile from that day was poor with multiple anomalies that could be in need of repair if volatility ever returns to the market.

Another potential scenario, which is probably more likely in the absence of any lasting volatility, would see the market continue to balance within or near Wednesday’s range. But be on the lookout for increasing volume, a liquidation break could be overdue because of the mechanical nature of the recent rally and the poor structure below current price.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Little volatility after Fed raises rates, selling and short covering back to wide POC

With the market still balancing near all time highs, the ES traded in a tight 10 point range waiting for the Fed minutes on Wednesday, developing a very prominent 11 TPO wide point of control at 2436.50 by K period.

Fed day selloff and short covering back to wide point of control
Fed day selloff and short covering back to wide POC – split view Market Profile chart

A sharp break lower in K period following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments failed to result in a double distribution, as price short covered back through the earlier C period low and back to the earlier prominent point of control, after filling the gap from June 12th. Price could not trade as low as 2422.00, the very wide prominent point of control from June 12th. The selling also failed to close as an outside day, as price settled near the center of the prior range. Value and the wide POC did not migrate lower with price.

Depending on where price opens on Thursday, Wednesday’s wide POC could provide early support or resistance, depending on which side it opens if price opens with Wednesday’s range. Acceptance above the POC could target Wednesday’s high at 2442.00 and potentially test the latest all time high at 2443.50, a poor high because there is only one tick of excess on the Market Profile chart. There is still excess at the all time high on the monthly, weekly and daily charts.

Price acceptance below Wednesday’s wide POC on Thursday could target the top of the excess single print buying tail from Wednesday at 2428.50, and potentially Wednesday’s low at 2425.75. Acceptance below the low puts price back into the June 12th narrow range balanced profile, targeting the very wide naked point of control at 2422.00. If and when price reenters an established balance, the potential exists for price to test the opposite end of the balance. If price can find acceptance back into the June 12th range, there could be good odds of testing the low from that day at 2416.75.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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FOMC Selloff, Double Disribution

The market gapped opened higher from Tuesday’s small range, inside day but sold off late after the release of the FOMC minutes where many Federal Reserve policymakers said it might be appropriate to raise interest rates again “fairly soon”, if inflation and jobs data comes in line with expectations.

FOMC selloff

Tuesday’s Market Profile chart featured a double distribution. Failing to find acceptance back above the high of the lower distribution at 2354.25 would imply that nothing has changed in regards to the late selloff down trend.

If price is accepted above the lower distribution and trades back into the L period single prints, potential resistance is at the single print at 2360.75 at the lower end of the upper distribution. Acceptance back into the upper balance could target the wide point of control at 2370.75 and poor high at 2375.00.

If the selling pressure continues into Thursday’s pit session and price finds acceptance below Tuesday’s low at 2344.25, potential targets to the down side are the April 3rd low at 2340.00 and March 28 low at 2333.50. If the previous support area at the prior multi-day trading range lows and March 27th single print below 2332.00 is breached, the all important 2318.00 March low comes into focus. Trading below 2318.00 would stop the one timeframing higher on the monthly chart, a more significant sign of change.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer




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