Tag Archives: TPO

Balanced, Inside Day on Last Trading Day of Month, Quarter

Balanced, inside day on the last trading day in the month and quarter on Friday. Price failed to trade below the previous day’s excess single prints at 2358.50 until the final half hour period.

Friday’s high at 2366.75, also the weekly high, was exactly at the prior day’s poor high (no excess TPO’s).

poor and weak high on market profile chart

Depending on where price opens on Monday, balance trading rules could apply: look above or below the one day balance and accelerate or fail, or remain balancing.

One potential “look above and fail” day trading scenario could see price repair the back to back poor/weak highs at 2366.75 and fail, returning back into the two day balance to test Friday’s low at 2357.75. Acceptance below that level would stop the one timeframing higher on the daily chart and would probably test Thursday’s 2354.00 low.

Lower potential price targets, should selling intensify, are the March 29th low at 2348.75, March 28th single print at 2342.75 and single print and prior trading range low at 2131.50.

If/when the market finds acceptance below the 2332 prior support level and if there is more serious selling pressure, more extreme levels could include the March 28th low at 2318.00 and unfilled gap (eventually) from February at 2312.75.

To the upside, acceptance above Friday’s poor high keeps the short term uptrend intact and would stop the one timeframing lower on the weekly chart, potentially targeting the remaining single prints and 2378.75 high from March the 21st selloff, and 3 daily highs above that level, including the March 16th poor high at 2384.50, which was mechanically at the upper excess level from the March 15th recovery high.

The all time S&P 500 Emini high on the March contract is at 2398.50. It is also a “poor” high.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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ES Remains in Range After TrumpCare Bill Pulled

After a no-vote on the repeal of ObamaCare in the US House of Representatives on Friday the ES stayed in its 2 1/2 day trading range, just briefly looking below it late before short covering into the close

Split-view Market Profile charts on March 23rd and 24th:

The ES opened near the center of the recent trading range and traded at a sluggish pace early as traders still waited for the House to vote on the repeal of ObamaCare and replacement with TrumpCare. Price grinded higher exactly to Thursday’s rally high at 2352.00 in C period, trading a few ticks above it in D period to the level the market broke down from on Thursday.

A sharp spike lower in F period ran the stops below the near matching C/D/E lows, but with no continuation the market bounced back to the developing 6 TPO wide point of control at 2348.50, widening to 8 TPO’s by H period.

After trading lower in I and J, the market broke sharply again in K and L periods, looking below the prior day’s low at 2338.25. But with the combination of low volume (NYSE daily volume was under 2.98 billion), slowing pace, a weak L period high and a wide point of control above price failed to break out of the range and continue lower, and quickly short covered in the final 30 minute trading period almost all the way back to the magnetic point of control.

Depending on where price opens on Monday, Friday’s late rally high at 2347.25 could be an important early trading reference. Opening below and not violating the rally high could infer the late rally was just short covering and Friday’s prevailing down trend is still in tact, increasing the odds of a retest of the weekly low at 2331.75. If a breakout to the downside occurs potential lower targets are the unfilled gap from February 10 at 2312.75 and the emotional 2300.00 price level.

Price acceptance above the rally high and wide point of control from Friday could easily see price test Friday’s high at 2352.75 and attempt to repair the poor high from Wednesday at 2356.00, and Tuesday’s lower distribution high at 2357.25. Higher references include the single print at 2361.75 and the long string of excess single prints above the anomaly at 2364.50.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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ES Daily Chart – One Timeframing Lower Off All Time High

The S&P 500 E-mini has been one timeframing lower on the daily chart from the March 1st all time high. One timeframing occurs, in this case one timeframing lower, when price fails to make a new high by more than a tick or two, but makes a new low.

The ES will have to trade at least more than two ticks above Wednesday’s high on Thursday to stop the onetimeframing lower on the daily chart.

But while in a short term down trend, the market is still trending higher on the intermediate and longer term time frames, and one timeframing higher on both the weekly and monthly charts. Price would have to trade below 2357.25 to stop the one timeframing lower on the weekly.

Wednesday’s U.S. pit session opened inside of the previous day’s range, just above the very prominent (twelve TPO wide) point of control, at 2370.00 and traded within a narrow six point range for the first four periods.

A late break to the downside in J period from the small inside bar in I period accelerated price lower, taking out the previous day’s low. The K period bar low matched the low of J to the tick, making it a poor low. Price bounced off the poor J/K low exactly to the half back level at 2368.25 in L period before the selling resumed, taking out the poor low. The market closed at the low of Tuesday, not getting the outside day.

Wednesdays wide point of control is a tick below Tuesday’s very prominent point of control, twelve TPO’s wide, at 2369.25. The back to back POC’s could be a key reference for Thursday, acceptance below that level keeps the short term down trend in tact.

Wednesday’s break in J period put price back into the previous four day trading range from February 21st-24th. If price finds acceptance below Wednesday’s low at 2360.75, the previous week’s low at 2357.50 and low of the prior balance at 2351.50 could come into play. Further potential downside targets are the February 17th gap fill at 2348.75 and prominent naked point of control from that day at 2341.50.

If price can shrug off the downward pressure and find acceptance back above Wednesday’s Point of control price could easily test Wednesday’s high at 2373.00 and stop the daily one timeframing lower. The succession of daily highs above Wednesday’s high – 2374.75, 2378.25, 2383.25 -are potential higher short term price targets if price can rally.

Thursday is the beginning of rollover to the June contract, so there also exists the possibility of it being a low volume, range bound trading day ahead of Friday’s monthly jobs data, barring any major news events that could rattle the markets.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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