Tag Archives: market profile spike

Selling in ES Challenges Monthly Higher One Timeframing

The ES opened near the low of the prior regular session range and four day balance on Thursday, breaking out below the poor three TPO wide low from June 30th at 2418.50. But with no early follow through below the second period low at 2410.25 the market reversed, trading above and below the previous low before following a sharp selloff in crude oil later in the day.

anomalies in market profile chart

The late selling left multiple anomalies in the profile chart. Anomalies are often a sign of more emotionally driven, shorter term traders and have good odds of being at least partially repaired, or revisited, in the next or future trading session.

One Timeframing

The ES weekly chart had stopped one timeframing higher on June 29th:

ES weekly one timeframing higher ended

The ES monthly chart is still one timeframing higher, with price trading near the low of June:

ES monthly one timeframing higher

Friday, July 7th is the release of the monthly jobs report and should produce early volatility in the markets. If price in the ES trades below Thursday’s low at 2405.25, it will likely test the June low. Trading below 2402.25 will end the higher monthly one timeframing.

An end to the monthly one timeframing could mean a change is occurring in the market. Trading with acceptance below the psychological 2400 level could lead to a more significant change.

An early Market Profile trading reference, depending on where price opens on Friday, is the late day spike at 2410.25. Opening within or below the spike is negative as it would imply the late lower prices were accepted. Opening above the spike could be positive, leaving Thursday’s lower single prints as an excess buying tail.

 split view market profile chart with spike

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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ES Matches its All Time High, Leaves Late Day Market Profile Spike

Price rallied late on Friday, leaving a late day spike on the Market Profile chart at 2392.75, trading to the prior all time high from March 1st at 2398.00. The high can be considered a weak high, matching exactly to the prior all time high (June contract), and no excess on the larger timeframe charts either as both the weekly and monthly highs now also match exactly.

matching S&P 500 emini all time high

To begin the new week, acceptance above the late day spike at 2392.75 could easily challenge Friday’s matching all time high. The psychological 2400 level, and all time pre-adjusted contract high from the March S&P 500 emini futures contract at 2401.00, are potential targets above Friday’s high.

Price traded above the prior monthly high (April) at 2394.75 on Friday, which was an inside month. At the time of this posting before the U.S. market open, the Globex futures had opened and already traded through Friday’s high and the prior old June contract high at 2401.00.

If price gaps open or trades above 2398.00 after the open of the U.S. pit session, putting in a new all time high and repairing the week high at 2398.00, but can not find acceptance and re-enters Friday’s range – trading with acceptance back below the prior monthly high at 2394.75 could bring in sellers, as the potential for a “look above and fail” would exist. Generally, the base of a spike is support. Trading back below the Friday’s spike bast at 2392.75 could imply there is a change in sentiment from Friday’s late rally.

Acceptance below Friday’s late day spike base at 2392.75 potentially targets Friday’s low at 2385.00 and the very prominent point of control from May 4th at 2383.50. Acceptance below that level potentially targets the lower end of the nine day trading range at 1275.50, and gap fill from April 24th at 2374.00.

However, to date, any new all time high that was made in an overnight Globex session has always been traded through during regular trading hours. By the market open on Monday, a new all time high will have already been made in the Globex session. Therefore, depending on where the pit session opens, the overnight high could be an early trading reference for the regular session.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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ES Mechanically One Timeframes Higher on Light Volume, Post Holiday Trade

The ES opened at 2330.75 on the Monday after the Easter Weekend Holiday, above the base of the late day spike from Friday’s Market Profile chart at 2329.50. Briefly trading below that level in the opening period, there was no price acceptance back into the spike inferring the late, lower prices were being rejected.

market profile chart with late day spike

The market rallied higher in B period, trading through Friday’s J/K period’s weak, mechanical highs exactly at Friday’s open.

Split view profile with spike, one timeframing:

Mechanical Buying
The C period pullback low traded exactly to the half back level and first period high at 2333.25, filling the A/B single print before grinding and one timeframing higher for the remainder of the session (although the K period low traded a tick below J, it did not stop the onetimeframing – two or more ticks above or below a previous bar is required to stop one timeframing).

The buying from almost exactly at the previous bar lows in most of the periods suggests this day was completely dominated by short term and day time frame traders. NYSE daily volume was also very light at just 2.81 billion shares.

Monday’s profile left a late day spike above the K period high at 2340.75, repairing the poor high at 2345.00 from Friday.

Opening above the top of the spike and high of day at 2346.00 on Tuesday (gap opening higher) suggests acceptance of the late higher prices, and that the late day price probe did not extend high enough to cut off the buying. The auction might not be not over.

If the rally is sustained on Tuesday, potential targets above are the highs from 4/12 at 2349.50, the poor high (one TPO of excess) at 2351.75 from 4/11 and potentially the prior weekly high at 2363.25

Opening within the spike shows price acceptance, the market found a place where two sided trade could occur. The base of the spike at 2341.00 could be short term support. CAUTION – because of the very mechanical nature of Monday’s trade and light volume, the “support” might not be very strong at all, and all levels created by weaker hands are easily breached if longer timeframes enter the market.

Opening below the spike base at 2340.75, or trading with acceptance below it, shows rejection of the late day higher price probe. If price fails to find acceptance above the 10 TPO wide point of control at 2337.75, the near matching consecutive bar lows below that level could trigger the “firecracker effect“, triggering stops below. The matching selling ledge D/E/F lows at 2335.50 would then also have good odds of being tested, along with Monday’s very mechanical C period low at 2333.25.

To the downside, if selling gains momentum and the two prior daily lows fail to hold (Friday’s 2324.00 low was also the prior weekly low), the March 2318.00 low comes back into focus. Trading below 2318.00 would stop the one timeframing higher on the monthly chart and could potentially bring in longer timeframe selling.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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