Tag Archives: buying tail

Breakout of Balance




After the market’s failed breakout attempt of the five day balance to the downside on Tuesday, one scenario was for the market to break out and find acceptance above the five day balance high at 2454.00 on Wednesday. Potential targets were the upper distribution high from the 8/17 selloff profile at 2459.50, and the single prints above to the high from that day at 2464.00. Wednesday’s high was at 2459.75, a poor high with no excess.

breakout of balance
After a failed breakout of the 5 day balance to the downside a day before, the market broke out to the upside the next.

If price opens above 2454.00 on Thursday (the prior 5 day balance high) the higher price levels noted in Tuesday’s market profile report could still be relevant.

Acceptance above 2459.75 and back into the excess single prints from the 8/17 selling tail could first target the high from 8/17 at 2464.00, and the wide point of control at 2467.75 and remaining unrepaired anomalies from the 8/16 profile. The matching highs from 8/9 and 8/16 at 2474.00 are within striking distance if the market finds acceptance above 2464.00.

Wednesday’s late pullback low at 2453.00 could be an important early reference on Thursday, depending on where price opens. Generally, the prior balance high (2454.00) should be support if the market broke out higher on strength. If Wednesday’s pullback low at 2453.00 fails to hold and price is accepted below that level, it puts price back into the five day balance, questioning the last two day, low volume rally (NYSE daily volume was very light at 2.51 billion).

split view profile breakout of balance

Potential lower targets are the single print at 2449.50, previous resistance, acceptance below that level probably tests Wednesday’s excess buying tail. Tuesday’s lower distribution high at 2436.00 comes into focus below Wednesday’s low.

End of month options expiration should bring volatility.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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ES Balanced Near Midpoint of July 27th Selloff Range

The ES balanced near the midpoint of the July 27th selloff range on Monday, in between the single print and upper distribution from that day at 2475.70 and the excess single prints above the prior week’s low at 2457.00.

ES balanced near midpoint of selloff range
ES balanced near midpoint of selloff range

The bulk of Monday’s trade took place in just about a 5 point range, with excess on both the top and the bottom of Monday’s profile leaving both a selling and a buying tail.

Looking at the entire 9 3/4 total point trading range as a balanced day, early acceptance above or below Monday’s very wide point of control at 2470.00 could give clues as to attempted market direction. When excess, which occurs in all time frames, is removed, the potential for change exists.

Trading above Monday’s high at 2475.00 retests the upper distribution from July 27th, acceptance back into that balance could easily test the all time high at 2480.50. While there is substantial excess on the weekly and monthly bars, there is only three ticks of excess at the all time high on the daily TPO chart.

Acceleration and/or acceptance with developing value below Monday’s low at 2465.25 brings Friday’s low at 2461.50 and the excess single prints from July 27th into focus, taking out that excess could also signal potential change.

A breakout from either side of Monday’s balance could have better odds of continuation if price first revisits the wide POC. Another possible scenario would see price remain in or around Monday’s balance on Tuesday, although probably unlikely because of the small range.

The July close at 2470.00 was well above its low at 2505.25, one timeframing higher for 8 consecutive months. With the daily bar balancing, the weekly bar is in it’s 5th consecutive week of one timeframing higher. Trading below 2457.00 would stop the weekly one timeframing higher, another potential sign of change.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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ES – Balanced inside day following selloff from all time high

Monday’s regular trading session opened within the previous day’s elongated range but below the prior close, and below the late rally high from Friday at 2429.25.

The ES sold lower in the opening period to two ticks above Friday’s single print buying tail, mechanically selling at halfback intra-bar in A period and leaving a long line of single prints (over 8 points) – early clues that the early move lower was probably just a liquidation break rather than from larger time frame money continuing the selloff from Friday.

ES Market Profile chart- Balanced inside day following selloff from all time high
ES Market Profile chart- Balanced inside day following selloff from all time high

Although early ES volume was higher, and first half hour NYSE market volume was substantially higher at over 535,000 shares, price did not find acceptance into Friday’s single print buying tail.

The market balanced in less than an eleven point trading range on Monday, leaving a poor high at 2427.50 (no excess) and a very prominent point of control at 2422.00.

An early reference on Tuesday could be on the prominent point of control, as acceptance above that level has good odds of repairing the poor high. If price can also find acceptance above Monday’s high, odds suggest price would attempt to repair some of the anomalies from Friday’s range.

Split view Market Profile chart 6-12-17
Split view Market Profile chart 6-12-17

Balance trading rules could also apply on Tuesday, depending on where price opens: Look either above or below the high or low and either accelerate, or fail. A failure of an attempted breakout from the inside day could target the opposite end of the balance. Another potential scenario would see price remain balanced around Monday’s range ahead of Wednesday’s 2:00 PM ET FOMC Meeting Announcement.

Potential destination trades to the downside, if price breaks out lower, could include Friday’s low at 2412.20, the June 1st low at
2410.50 and the unrepaired prominent point of control from May 31st at 2405.25 (September contract).

There is now substantial excess at the all time high on the short, intermediate and longer term time frames, although the profile from the June 9th record high is a poor high, with only one tick of excess.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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