Tag Archives: poor low

Value Lower, Poor Low

lower value area
No acceptance above prior day’s lower distribtuion

The market dipped below the psychological 2800 level, leaving a poor low at 2798.25. Failure to find acceptance back above the late rally high and value area high from Monday could lead to a retest of the 2800 level and the poor low. A short covering rally above 2812 could target the excess at Monday’s high, potentially the excess single prints and upper distribution low from Friday’s selloff.

Tuesday is the last trading day of the month and the beginning of the two day FOMC meeting. The volatility events for the week will probably be on Wednesday at the release of the FOMC minutes and the release of the monthly jobs data on Friday. The prior weekly low is at 2796.00. The market has been one timeframing higher on the weekly chart for the past 4 consecutive weeks.

lower value after selloff
lower value after selloff



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Gap and Grind Higher

A gap open higher to begin the week left an early poor, no excess low in the Market Profile chart.

ES gap open and grind higher,
Gap open higher, mechanical buying exactly at half back level in ‘H’ period on this Market Profile chart.

Mechanical buying exactly at half back level in H period (2779.25) suggests that shorter term buyers were in control, and that level could have good odds of being retested.

The point of control is only somewhat prominent at 8 TPO’s wide, but could be an early trading reference on Tuesday. Acceptance above the POC could target Monday’s high at 2787.75, above that level is the prior monthly (June) high at 2796.00. (Price had already traded to 2797.75 at the time of this posting. The overnight high and low are always valid short term trading references going into the regular day trading session).

Price acceptance below 2779.00 could target the no excess low at 2772.75, and potentially the unfilled gap from 7/6. Friday’s breakout was on low volume, if liquidation occurs price could target the bottom of the upper distribution from Friday’s profile and late pullback low at 2756.75, and potentially try to test of the top of the prior short term trading range at 2748.00.

 no excess low on Market Profile chart
Gap higher with poor, no excess low on Market Profile chart

Large gaps are seldom filled the day after they are created. However, there exists the possibility of an island reversal if Friday’s breakout of balance fails.




Therefore, looking at Monday’s range as a one day balance, potential balance trading scenarios could be: look above or below the balance and either trade (with acceptance) higher or lower, look above or below the one day balance and fail – returning back into the range and possibly retesting the opposite end, or remain in balance (which could include a slight extension of the range).

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer

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