Tag Archives: POC

Two day Balance – Near Matching (Weak) High and Low Ahead of FOMC

two day balance in ES ahead of FOMC, poor highs and lows
Two day balance with near matching highs and lows in market profile charts. September ES futures contract.
no excess  lows market profile charts
Multiple no excess lows in recent market profile charts beg to be repaired



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Gap Open Higher Repairs Two Poor Highs, Leaves A New One

A gap higher opening on the ES repaired the poor high from the July 3rd and poor/matching highs from June 28/29, but also left a new poor high in the current profile at 2443.75.

ES gap open higher repairs two prior poor highs, leaves one
ES gap open higher repairs two prior poor highs, leaves one

The bulk of the move higher happened in the pre-market, as price was contained to just a 9 point range in the regular trading hour session with mechanical buying from just above the prior weekly high at 2436.50 in the D and F periods.

short term traders buying near prior weekly high
short term traders buying near prior weekly high

Large gaps are rarely filled on the day or day after they’re created, and often during gap days if the gap is not filled and value does not become at least partially unchanged, the odds favor a late day rally in the direction of the gap. A late rally did not occur as price settled at 2439.75, two ticks above the half back level of the session after one timeframing higher in price in F through K periods.

Notable references for Thursday are the prior weekly high (an inside week) at 2436.50, on the downside, and Thursday’s poor high at 2443.75 on the upside.

Wednesday’s profile was balanced. Acceptance and continuation above the poor high targets the last remaining unrepaired poor high above from 6/26 at 2447.50, and potentially the all time high at 2351.50.

Acceptance below last week’s high at 2336.50 first potentially targets Thursday’s low at 2434.75, followed by the top of the gap at 2427.25.

Wednesday’s point of control was very wide, if a breakout occurs from Thursday’s balanced range there should be better odds of continuation if price first revisits the POC.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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ES Price Contained in Prior Day’s Upper Distribution, Leaving Both a Poor High and Poor Low

Thursday’s ES pit session opened inside of the upper distribution from the the prior pit session, and after chopping around in a small three point range in the first period, the second (B) period high matched the first (A) period high to the tick, making it a poor high, just below the prior late M period excess single prints.

poor high and poor low on market profile chart

Before breaking lower in B period, price breached Wednesday’s late pullback low at 2378.50 by three ticks. The overnight Globex low, 2378.25, was also just a tick below the pullback low.

The C bar low tested the B period low, trading to within one tick of it, making it a poor low before mechanically bouncing back to one tick below half back.

Split view Market Profile chart:
market profile chart split view s&p 500 emini futures contract

Price had breached the late pullback low, challenging the previous day’s uptrend, opening the door to potentially more downside continuation.

Although the A/B period high is poor, it is just a single data point. D period made a new low, accelerating lower to the low of Wednesday’s upper distribution at 2374.50 (to the tick) and quickly bounced. E period traded below the D bar low but was quickly rejected, with no acceptance back into the lower distribution, and a wide point of control began to develop at 2378. A later break in K/L periods was again rejected at the low, making another poor low, and price returned back to the wide point of control. The POC ended the session twelve TPO’s wide POC at 2378.25.

If price reenters a prior balance, in this case Wednesday’s lower distribution, the potential exists for price to trade to the opposite end of the balance (Wednesday’s low). Price never found acceptance back into Wednesday’s lower distribution on Thursday.

The current profile features both a poor high and a poor low, along with a wide point of control at 2378.25. With both short and intermediate time frames now balancing, Thursdays point of control at 2378.25 could provide either support or resistance on Friday, depending on which side of it the market opens. Price acceptance above the POC could easily see price retest and repair Thursdays poor high at 2384.50. Acceptance below the POC could pressure recent FOMC longs and retest Thursday’s poor low.

Acceptance back below Thursday’s low puts price back into Wednesdays lower distribution. When price reenters a prior balance the potential destination trade is the opposite end of the balance (Wednesday’s low at 2365.75). There is an unrepaired naked point of control from March 13th at 2361.25 that could act as a price magnet should the market get legs to the downside.

If price does break out of the one day balance to either side, the odds of continuation of the breakout should be greater if price first visits the very prominent point of control (fairest price) first.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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