Tag Archives: market profile poor low

ES – Lower Value Areas Developing Below All Time High

ES lower value areas off all time high
ES lower value areas developing below all time high

After a breakout from the previous inside week’s balance to new all time highs on Monday, price reentered the prior week’s range on Tuesday and Wednesday, one timeframing lower on the daily chart from the recent new all time high at 2351.50, although still one timeframing higher on the weekly.

Price would have to trade below 2416.25 to stop the weekly onetimeframing higher. The long term trend is still up, as price has not stopped one timeframing higher on the monthly chart.

split view profile with mechanical selling at bar highs
Split view Market Profile chart with mechanical selling at bar highs

Wednesday’s regular hour trading session closed the gap from June 16th, as price traded down to 2428.00, leaving questionable price levels in the profile – clusters of 30 minute bar highs in D,E,F and G periods, and another cluster at the K,L,M,N highs, all trading very mechanically within 1 tick of one another leaving no excess. Mechanical trading suggest that the selling was done by shorter time frame traders, leaving good odds of those price levels being revisited, potentially to run the stops above.

The point of control has migrated lower intra-day the previous two sessions, along with developing lower value.

Wednesday’s profile also left a poor low at 2428.00 with only one tick of excess. Poor highs and lows also have high odds of being revisited, or repaired.

Wednesday’s 12 point session was balanced, therefore, depending on where price opens on Thursday, balance trading scenarios could apply on Thursday:

– Look above Wednesday’s high at 2440.00, stopping the daily one timeframing higher, finding acceptance and testing the prior weekly high at 2442.00 and prior all time high at 2443.50.

– Look above Wednesday’s high at 2440.00, stopping the one timeframing higher to let inventory rebalance, but failing to find acceptance and return back into Wednesday’s range. Price acceptance back inside Wednesday’s balance could target the opposite, lower end and poor low at 2428.00

– Look below Wednesday’s low at 2428.00, repairing the poor low and accelerating/finding acceptance at lower prices

– Look below Wednesday’s low at 2428.00, repairing the poor low and returning back into balance, repairing the weak references and potentially targeting the opposite end of Wednesday’s range.

– Remain in balance

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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ES Price Contained in Prior Day’s Upper Distribution, Leaving Both a Poor High and Poor Low

Thursday’s ES pit session opened inside of the upper distribution from the the prior pit session, and after chopping around in a small three point range in the first period, the second (B) period high matched the first (A) period high to the tick, making it a poor high, just below the prior late M period excess single prints.

poor high and poor low on market profile chart

Before breaking lower in B period, price breached Wednesday’s late pullback low at 2378.50 by three ticks. The overnight Globex low, 2378.25, was also just a tick below the pullback low.

The C bar low tested the B period low, trading to within one tick of it, making it a poor low before mechanically bouncing back to one tick below half back.

Split view Market Profile chart:
market profile chart split view s&p 500 emini futures contract

Price had breached the late pullback low, challenging the previous day’s uptrend, opening the door to potentially more downside continuation.

Although the A/B period high is poor, it is just a single data point. D period made a new low, accelerating lower to the low of Wednesday’s upper distribution at 2374.50 (to the tick) and quickly bounced. E period traded below the D bar low but was quickly rejected, with no acceptance back into the lower distribution, and a wide point of control began to develop at 2378. A later break in K/L periods was again rejected at the low, making another poor low, and price returned back to the wide point of control. The POC ended the session twelve TPO’s wide POC at 2378.25.

If price reenters a prior balance, in this case Wednesday’s lower distribution, the potential exists for price to trade to the opposite end of the balance (Wednesday’s low). Price never found acceptance back into Wednesday’s lower distribution on Thursday.

The current profile features both a poor high and a poor low, along with a wide point of control at 2378.25. With both short and intermediate time frames now balancing, Thursdays point of control at 2378.25 could provide either support or resistance on Friday, depending on which side of it the market opens. Price acceptance above the POC could easily see price retest and repair Thursdays poor high at 2384.50. Acceptance below the POC could pressure recent FOMC longs and retest Thursday’s poor low.

Acceptance back below Thursday’s low puts price back into Wednesdays lower distribution. When price reenters a prior balance the potential destination trade is the opposite end of the balance (Wednesday’s low at 2365.75). There is an unrepaired naked point of control from March 13th at 2361.25 that could act as a price magnet should the market get legs to the downside.

If price does break out of the one day balance to either side, the odds of continuation of the breakout should be greater if price first visits the very prominent point of control (fairest price) first.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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Inside Day

The ES is in a two day balance following six consecutive days one timeframing lower, which stopped on Friday. The intermediate term uptrend is weakening as price has stopped one timeframing higher on the weekly chart. Trends rarely turn from bull market to bear, there will often be a balancing period before a trend reversal, if there is going to be one.

With volume still split between the March and June contracts, Monday’s pit session opened inside the previous day’s range with price mechanically bouncing and reversing off obvious levels – the previous close, half-back, open print, point of control, overnight half-back – all very visual references signifying short term traders in control early.

No momentum and a very sluggish pace, Monday closed as an inside day, leaving both a poor high and a poor low in the profile along with a very wide point of control at 2368.25 (June contract).

The inside day could be key to whether or not the ES will resume its short term down trend on Tuesday. Depending on where price opens balance rules could apply – look either above or below the balance and accelerate higher or lower, look above or below and fail and trade back into the range targeting the opposite end and potentially beyond, or continue to balance ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting Announcement and Forecasts.

Monday’s wide point of control could have a gravitational pull if price trades too far away from it without first checking in. One scenario could see price repair either the poor high or poor low, fail, and return to the balance and target the opposite end’s poor structure.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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