Category Archives: S&P 500 E-mini Market Profile Review

Double Distribution, Wide POC

market profile double distribution

If price opens within this range early focus could be on acceptance or rejection of the separate distributions.

Price acceptance below Friday’s low could target the prior weekly low, as Friday’s liquidation break could equate to a failed break out of balance to the upside.

If price reenters a prior distribution the potential exists to reach the opposite end of that balance. If price does re-enter the upper distribution the excess single prints could be tested. Acceptance back above 2694.75 could target the 4/19 high at 2703.50, which could be considered a weak reference, as price traded to just a single tick below the 4/18 low following a small gap opening lower.



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Balance Within Overnight Range

Large gaps are rarely filled the day after they are created. This held true on Wednesday after price opened near the top of Tuesday’s range, which had gapped open 11+ points above Monday’s range. Price was contained completely inside the overnight range, with the day’s low exactly at the overnight low and the high of the day just two ticks below the overnight session high.

S&P 500 emini overnight range
Overnight range

For the third consecutive day overnight inventory was close to 100% long going into the start of the regular session, setting up the possibility of a larger liquidation break in the near future. The overnight inventory is considered long if the majority of trade had occurred above the prior day session’s settle.

day session contained within overnight range
ES day session contained within overnight range

During the recent rally and breakout above the prior three week range, price rallied often from very visual price references, a sign of shorter timeframe traders in control, who can often easily give up their positions in the event of more serious liquidation.

Thursday’s balanced profile featured a very wide point of control at 2714.00, where all but one 30 minute market profile period had traded through. Depending on where price opens, that level could act as early support or resistance on Thursday.

Wednesday’s settle at 2709.75 was just above at the half-way mark between the January all time high and the February correction low at the 2708.00 level. Acceptance below Wednesday’s close could pressure recent longs and test the weak reference at Wednesday’s low, and potentially target the 2700 level and the top of the unfilled gap at 2692.50.

If the rally continues, visual references within striking distance to the upside include the botttom and top of the unfilled gap from 3/16 at 2745.25 and 2752.75, respectively.



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Poor High, Late Pullback to Half-back in Profile Chart

Poor high market profile chart
Poor high in the market profile chart

The market attempted a breakout higher of the previous three week high above 2680.50. The move higher was on lower futures volume than Friday, while Monday’s NYSE volume was also relatively light.

The late pullback low at 2676.25 in L period on the chart below was very suspect, as it was at just one tick below the session’s half back level and exactly at the point of control.

split view profile chart displays mechanical pullback to half-back level
split view profile chart displays mechanical pullback to half-back level

Value was higher throughout the day.

Monday’s profile left a poor high (no TPO’s of excess) at 2687.00. If the poor high is repaired and price finds acceptance above that level, potential targets are the high from 3/22 at 2698.25 (the bottom of the unfilled gap) and gap fill from 3/21 at 2712.50.

The mechanical nature of the late pullback low to half back leaves good of of being revisited. Price acceptance below that level could target Monday’s low at 2666.00, further liquidation could see a test of Friday’s point of control at 2658.25. The next downside reference would be the low from Friday at 2644.75.



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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