Friday’s new all time high in the ES saw price spike higher during the last hour of trade in the regular trading hour (RTH) session, leaving excess single prints in the market profile chart before retreating back to the point of control at the close.
If price does not take out this latest all time high on Tuesday and fills the gap from January 16th the odds increase that Friday’s high could be lasting. Gaps are a form of excess, if Tuesday’s RTH session opens with a large gap lower this also increases the odds of liquidation if unfilled, and could lead to a more powerful move down in price.
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The latest overnight session all time high in the S&P 500 emini was made on 12/26/19 at 3254.50. The regular session high at 3251.00 was made on 12/27/19. Both levels were traded through late on Thursday afternoon, 1/2/20, leaving significant excess at the new all time high at 3259.75.
Due to the New years 2020 holiday, the FOMC meeting minutes (usually released midweek) from the December 2019 rate decision will be released at 2 PM ET/1900 GMT on Friday, 1/3/20, and could usher in some volatility.
If another new all time high is made in the Thursday evening overnight session, that price level could also be challenged in Friday’s regular trading session leading up to the Fed minutes.
The base of the late day spike on Thursday at 3251.25 is potential support. Trading through that price level with acceptance could bring in more profit taking, and signal potential change to the current market rally, with the chance this latest all time high could be lasting for at least a little while.
The Fed members kept rates unchanged in December and did not forecast another rate hike in 2020, but can see one hike in 2021 and 2022.
Youll never look at the markets the same way again