Tag Archives: rally high

Early Liquidation Break Ends Weekly One Time-Framing Higher, Short Covering Late

early liquidation break, short covering late

Early selling at the open intensified as price repaired previous multiple poor lows on the daily Market Profile charts, but falling short of repairing the the poor lows from 10/9, 10/3.

Apparent short covering off the G period two-tick excess low rallied price back 17 points to one tick below the A period single print.

The selloff gained momentum after price broke through the prior three day balance low and bounced back exactly to that level and halfback from A period, suggesting the move lower was initiated by shorter time frame momentum traders.

The late rally high at 2558.75 could be an early important trading reference on Thursday, acceptance back above that price level and into the upper distribution probably targets Wednesday’s high and potentially the very prominent point of control from 10/24 at 2567.50, and the poor high from that profile at 2570.25.

Failure to find acceptance back above 2558.75 could keep the downward tone from Wednesday in tact. Price had stopped one timeframing higher on the weekly chart on Wednesday. For more potential serious change price would have to trade below a prior weekly low at 2539.25 and test the current October low.

Price has been one timeframing higher on the monthly chart since the November 2016 Presidential election, if it can close near the October low at 2517.50 by the end of the month the odds could be good that the monthly one timeframing would be challenged in November.

The current all time high was made in the overnight electronic session at 2577.25, something to carry forward as to date, any all time high made in the Globex market has always been traded through during a regular US hour trading session. Although, however, it can remain untested for quite some time.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Break Out Of Balance to the Downside

After a look above and fail of the extended trading range on Tuesday, price broke out to the downside on Thursday, trading through the excess lows of the range to take out two more prior weekly lows, before finally closing 23.5 points below Wednesday’s low.

ES market profile chart 8-10-17

With overnight inventory 100% short heading into the Thursday’s regular trading session, price opened at the lower end of Wednesday’s range, well below the very wide POC. Price failed to trade back above the prior week’s low at 2463.50 (the weekly onetimeframing higher ended the prior day).

Thursday’s emotionally driven selloff, following more severe Trump/Korea rhetoric, left multiple anomalies in the stretched out profile. Other notable market profile references on the chart are the K (11th) period rally high at 2453.50, and the late day spike base at 2442.75.

ES split view market profile chart 8-10-17
ES split view market profile chart 8-10-17

Failure to find price acceptance above 2442.75 on Friday could keep the current downtrend in tact, as nothing would have changed relating to Thursday’s downward trend.

Acceptance back above the base of the spike on Friday could see price attempt to repair at least some of the anomalies from Thursday’s profile, with potential resistance at the 9 TPO wide POC at 2449.50, and the rally high at 2453.50, below the 2457.00 prior trading range low.

ES daily chart after August 10 selloff

If price opens within Thursday spike, below 2442.75, it would imply that price did not go low enough on Thursday to cut off the selling, and could have good odds of testing Thursday’s low. Acceptance below 2435.75 could bring in more liquidation, first targeting the top of the unfilled gap from July 11/12 at 2434.75, then potentially the gap fill at 2427.25.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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ES Balancing Within July 27th Range




ES balancing in trading range
ES four day balance inside July 27th trading range

The ES is still balancing inside the wide range from the July 27th profile. After trading through and repairing the prior two day’s matching highs at 2475.00 at the open, an early attempted selloff Wednesday failed to find continuation below the C (third) period low, allowing two sided trade to occur around the around the prior RTH session low. Another session apparently dominated by short term traders – liquidation followed by short covering.

split view profile 8/2/17
split view profile 8/2/17

Price rallied exactly back to the open price at 2474.75 in the final period, a very visual, mechanical short term trader’s reference.

Wednesday’s late pullback low at 2471.00 could be an important short term trading reference for Thursday. Acceptance above that level re-targets the upper distribution balance above 2475.50 from the July 27th profile, and could challenge the all time high.

Acceptance below 2471.00 at a minimum keeps the market in short term balance, with good odds of retesting Wednesday’s poor low at 2463.25. Acceptance below Wednesday’s low could target the July 28th low at 2461.50 and the single print buying tail from 7/28, potentially challenging the prior weeekly low (and the weekly one timeframing higher) at 2457.00.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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