Tag Archives: half back

Early Liquidation Break Ends Weekly One Time-Framing Higher, Short Covering Late

early liquidation break, short covering late

Early selling at the open intensified as price repaired previous multiple poor lows on the daily Market Profile charts, but falling short of repairing the the poor lows from 10/9, 10/3.

Apparent short covering off the G period two-tick excess low rallied price back 17 points to one tick below the A period single print.

The selloff gained momentum after price broke through the prior three day balance low and bounced back exactly to that level and halfback from A period, suggesting the move lower was initiated by shorter time frame momentum traders.

The late rally high at 2558.75 could be an early important trading reference on Thursday, acceptance back above that price level and into the upper distribution probably targets Wednesday’s high and potentially the very prominent point of control from 10/24 at 2567.50, and the poor high from that profile at 2570.25.

Failure to find acceptance back above 2558.75 could keep the downward tone from Wednesday in tact. Price had stopped one timeframing higher on the weekly chart on Wednesday. For more potential serious change price would have to trade below a prior weekly low at 2539.25 and test the current October low.

Price has been one timeframing higher on the monthly chart since the November 2016 Presidential election, if it can close near the October low at 2517.50 by the end of the month the odds could be good that the monthly one timeframing would be challenged in November.

The current all time high was made in the overnight electronic session at 2577.25, something to carry forward as to date, any all time high made in the Globex market has always been traded through during a regular US hour trading session. Although, however, it can remain untested for quite some time.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Value and POC Still Trending Higher, Another New Record High

Traders were still buying pulllbacks as the ES traded to another new all time high in the regular trading hour session. After the second straight gap higher opening, the new record high was set in the opening minutes, but fell short of testing the new Globex all time high at 2476.25, made prior to the opening bell.

Choppy trade in and out of the prior day’s range followed after a sharp break in C period repaired the remaining anomalies from the previous session’s profile.

value and point of control still trending higher to new all time high
value and point of control still trending higher to new all time high

Thursday’s profile left an 11 TPO wide point of control at 2472.75. Value was higher on the day, and all trends remain up.

The all time ES 24 hour high is now at 2476.25, created in Wednesday’s Globex session. Although they can last for some time, all time highs made in an overnight session have always eventually been revisited during a regular trading hours session. If price opens above Thursday’s POC on Friday and offers early support, the Globex all time high could be the destination. If developing value remains higher nothing would probably have changed in regards to the current market condition, all trends are up.

If, during the session, price trades through the all time high and value is not migrating higher, there is the possibility of a “look above and fail” scenario if sellers are waiting at the all time high.

If price opens below the POC, and value develops as overlapping to lower from the prior session’s small value area, odds probably suggest price trading within a three day balance.

Thursday’s late K period pullback to 2470.50 was exactly at halfback, another sign that shorter term traders were apparently in control. The market closed two ticks above that level. Acceptance below the prior close could easily target the C period single print buying tail, and possibly Thursday’s low. There are two gaps below the market, from July 18th at 2458.50 and July 11th 2427.25. Acceleration below Thursday’s low targets Wednesday’s low at 2461.25, the prior all time high, and potentially the first gap fill at 2458.50.

split view profile shows half back level.

July 21st is the third Friday of the month, there could be added volatility due to monthly options expirations.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Mechanical, Slow Paced Trading Session in ES

With overnight inventory virtually 100% short going into Friday’s pit session, the ES opened with a small gap lower (1 1/2 points), quickly filled the gap at the previous day’s low and pulled back to the Oct. 17th pit close at 2123.25 – which was also just one tick below the the overnight low and two ticks above the Oct. 17th prominent point of control, a very visual, mechanical short term trading level.

es-look-below-of-bbalance-and-fail

Very prominent, unrepaired points of control in the market profile often act as magnets for future trading sessions.

Friday’s pit trading session was a grinding, slow paced, low confidence session that traded off of very visual short term trader references, including:

  • The low of the day was just one tick off a previous close/point of control
  • The B period low was just one tick above the session open
  • C period initially stalled at the 2131 overnight halfback level
  • The I period pullback was from the then-current half back level
  • The L period high of day stopped just one tick short of the previous day’s pit close

Because it was at such a mechanical level, Friday’s high at 2136.75 has good odds of being tested on Monday. Acceptance above that level could see price test the Oct. 20 high at 2141.25, the Oct. 19th 2142.50 poor high and the Oct. 14th 2143.25 high. Hitting stops above those similar price levels could potentially see price fill in some of the single prints left from the October 11th selloff, and even possibly fill the Columbus Day gap at 2156.25.

The ES is one timeframing lower on the daily chart for three consecutive day sessions. Failure to trade above 2136.75 keeps the one timeframing in tact.

Friday’s profile also left multiple anomalies. That information can be carried forward as anomalies are structural weaknesses often created by emotionally driven traders, such as short covering, and have good odds of being repaired in the next or future trading session after they were created.

To the downside, the B period low – one tick above Friday’s open – also has decent odds of being retested.

The unrepaired poor low still remains at 2117.75.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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