Tag Archives: excess

Gap Lower, Selloff Following China Trade Tariffs

market profile spike

Opening within the late spike could confirm the short term down trend with good odds of retesting Thursday’s low. Opening below the spike and Thursday’s low is a sign of weakness confirming price did not travel far enough on Thursday to cut off the selling. Further liquidation could eventually lead to a retest of the February 9th correction low.

Opening above the spike would be more positive, targeting Thursday’s value and possibly the POC. If short covering occurs price could target the value area high and the B period excess single prints from Thursday’s profile. However, large gaps are not usually filled the day after they are created, so the odds would probably favor more of a rotational balancing day.



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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ES Market Profile Report: Wide Point of Control, Four Ticks of Excess at New All Time High




balance at new all time high leaves prominent point of control

Another new record high was made in the overnight session before Tuesdays open at 2842.00. Price opened within the upper end of Monday’s range and late day spike (showing that the prior day’s late price probe was being accepted), and initially failed to take out the overnight high in the opening drive. A new all time regular session high was put in at 2844.75 after price rallied off the prior day’s high in C/D period.

Split view market profile chart
Mechanical buying was the theme early, with buying at dips off mechanical price levels, most notably at the C/G/J bar lows at just one and two ticks above the prior day session high.

Notable Market Profile References

The D period excess above the C period high held throughout Tuesday’s balancing session, making 2843.75 potentially an important reference on Wednesday. If that excess holds, the odds probably favor at least a retest of 2836.75, and could increase the odds of a potential downside liquidation break and potentially lower prices.

The next downside references below 2836.76 are Monday’s low at 2832.00, and the base of Monday’s late spike at 2828.25. Price acceptance below that level targets at least some of the multiple anomalies in Monday’s profile. Anomalies are a sign of more emotional, momentum based trading and have high odds of being revisited in the very near future.

But all trends remain up. The very wide point of control at 2840.00 limited downside contnuation on Tuesday. That level could provide early support or resistance on Wednesday, depending on which side of it the market opens.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Double distribution at new all time high

double distribution at new all time high

After setting another new record high in the overnight trading session at 2747.75, Monday’s regular session opened inside the prior day’s range, above the late spike in the profile at 2735.00. Overnight highs and lows are always references for the following day trading session.

Price one timeframed higher from the opening period until reaching the overnight high, to the tick, in J period, and formed a double distribution in the profile chart above 2745.00 before setting another new regular session all time high at 2748.50 in the final 30 minute period.

With two unfilled daily gaps from the prior week the risk for longs appears to be high, which increases the odds for at least a short term liquidation break. But the market is still one timeframing higher on the monthly chart, 13 consecutive months, and all trends remain up.

Looking at each of Monday’s distribution as a separate balance, depending n where price opens, balance trading scenarios could apply: look either above or below a distribution and find acceptance higher/lower, look above or below a distribution and fail – targeting the opposite end, or remain in balance (probably lowest of odds).

There are only two ticks of excess at the new all time high, but depending on where price opens on Tuesday, there could be significant excess on the daily bar chart. Something to carry forward if a liquidation break does occur.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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