Tag Archives: excess

Early selling tests prior weekly low, reverses.




early selling tests prior weekly lows
Early selling tests prior weekly lows, setting up a potential later “firecracker effect”?

With overnight inventory basically 100% net short, price opened within the lower excess single prints from the prior day’s profile. Very choppy trade followed as price dipped below the prior low and traded through the opening print multiple times in the opening 30 minute period before accelerating lower at the open of the second (B) period, to 4 ticks short of the prior weekly low.

About 11 points of A/B single prints were retraced in the third (C) period as price reversed off the lows, balancing in the upper half of the profile the remainder of the session, leaving a poor high in the profile at 2578.25.

split view market profile chart 11-14-17

Value was clearly established lower early for the day, although price closed back within the previous range.

Using the wide point of control at 2575.75 as an early reference, acceptance above that level targets the poor high at 2578.25 and potentially the naked point of control at 2581.50 from 11/13. Price acceptance above 2581.50 targets the 11/13 high at 2585.50 and potentially challenges the all time high at 2593.50.

Acceptance below the POC could lead to another test of Tuesday’s low. There are now 3 weekly lows tightly grouped together, setting up the possibility of a future ‘firecracker effect’ where trading below one significant price level triggers stops below, which in turn sets off more stops below it, which could lead to more significant liquidation at least in the short/intermediate time frames.

It is still early but there’s a possibility that the current week can end as an inside week, leaving excess at the all time high on the intermediate time frame.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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“P” Formation Market Profile Chart

Opening two ticks below the previous regular session’s small range, price reentered and rallied through the balanced, inside day repairing the poor high in the profile.

"P" Formation Market Profile Chart
“P” formation in the Market Profile chart. Can be typical of short covering.

When C period opened at the B period high, leaving almost ten points of single prints in the first two periods below, the odds should have been good that many of those would be filled in.

The reversal in C period traded lower, mechanically, to the A/B single print at 2578.25 before bouncing and retesting the early high, but did not trade back into the 5+ points of excess from the opening period.

split view profile 11/13/17
Split view profile chart for 11/13/17: 2580.75 late pullback low exactly at prior 3 day balance low. Price acceptance below that level could test ‘A’ period’s lower excess in profile. Acceptance above it could keep pressure on shorts, retest highs.

Value was developing as overlapping to higher, with a point of control widening to four TPO’s at 2580.25 in the fourth period that climbed to 2581.50 by the close, as the market balanced in a narrow range at the prior day’s high.

The market was also one timeframing higher from the open, not stopping until H period, lowering the odds for any significant retracement before coming off the high in the final hour of trade.

Early focus on Tuesday, depending on where the market opens, could be on the late M period pullback low at 2580.75. Acceptance below that level could test the C period low at 2578.25 and potentially trade back into and “fill in” some of the excess single prints below.

Acceptance above the pullback low and the wide point of control and settle at 2181.50/2582.00 targets Mondays high and could bring the all time high back into play.

Technically, the session closed as an outside day as price opened below the prior day’s range but closed above it, although only by one tick.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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