Tag Archives: poor high

Early selling tests prior weekly low, reverses.




early selling tests prior weekly lows
Early selling tests prior weekly lows, setting up a potential later “firecracker effect”?

With overnight inventory basically 100% net short, price opened within the lower excess single prints from the prior day’s profile. Very choppy trade followed as price dipped below the prior low and traded through the opening print multiple times in the opening 30 minute period before accelerating lower at the open of the second (B) period, to 4 ticks short of the prior weekly low.

About 11 points of A/B single prints were retraced in the third (C) period as price reversed off the lows, balancing in the upper half of the profile the remainder of the session, leaving a poor high in the profile at 2578.25.

split view market profile chart 11-14-17

Value was clearly established lower early for the day, although price closed back within the previous range.

Using the wide point of control at 2575.75 as an early reference, acceptance above that level targets the poor high at 2578.25 and potentially the naked point of control at 2581.50 from 11/13. Price acceptance above 2581.50 targets the 11/13 high at 2585.50 and potentially challenges the all time high at 2593.50.

Acceptance below the POC could lead to another test of Tuesday’s low. There are now 3 weekly lows tightly grouped together, setting up the possibility of a future ‘firecracker effect’ where trading below one significant price level triggers stops below, which in turn sets off more stops below it, which could lead to more significant liquidation at least in the short/intermediate time frames.

It is still early but there’s a possibility that the current week can end as an inside week, leaving excess at the all time high on the intermediate time frame.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Poor structure at all time high, Market Profile

Multi day trading range in the ES with three consecutive near matching highs, poor lows.

The ES is trading in a multi day range with three near matching highs and consecutive poor or weak daily lows, suggesting a market that is dominated by short term and day time frame traders.

The all time high is not secure. If a “look above and fail” scenario occurs, the obvious potential destination trade would be to repair those poor lows.

Acceptance above the latest all time high could also lead to another break out of balance to the upside, but long risk appears to be very high with the poor profile structure below.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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Balanced Day, Poor High, Questionable Low

Balanced day Tuesday with overlapping to mostly higher value. Price traded to a tick above the prior day’s high at 2501.25, leaving a poor high in the profile. The low at 2492.25 is questionably weak as it was just a single tick below the prior day session’s half back level and two ticks below the overnight session low. A poor high and weak low suggest day time frame and short term traders were in control. Both levels have good odds of being revisited in a future trading session.

balanced day poor high above prior half back level
Market Profile chart showing poor high, wide point of control and questionable low at prior day’s half back area. The high is also a “weak” high, because it was only a single tick above the daily high from 9/22.

If price opens within this range, early references are the CME settle at 2495.50 and the 10 TPO wide point of control at 2497.25. A breakout from either side of the balance could have better odds of continuation if price first trades back to or near the wide point of control.

Potential trade scenarios could also see a look above or below the balance and fail, targeting the opposite end, or remain in balance (probably the lesser odds).

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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