Rally Following FOMC Minutes

market profile references

After a gap open lower and balance developing below the previous day’s range, the market rallied exactly to the base of the late day spike from the prior day’s profile into the close. Value and the point of control remained lower.

The market traded higher off of very visual references suggesting shorter term traders were in control, with price bouncing exactly off the 5/18 daily low in the 3rd period, off the opening print in both D and F periods, and at the prior day’s low and 2nd period high in K period. All these levels could have good odds of being revisited.

In addition there is a 10 TPO wide point of control at 2716.50 that could draw price back towards it.

The rally stopped exactly at the spike base from Tuesday and the prior day’s close, and the profile chart also left a poor high at the close, that level could also be considered weak.

Market rallies after FOMC



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Gap Higher, Balance

balance after gap opening higher
One day balance after gap opening higher

The ES is trading in an eight day balance between 2700.50 and 2741.25. If price opens within Monday’s range potential balance trading scenarios could include: look above or below Monday’s balanced range and accelerate/find acceptance at higher or lower prices, look above/below the range and fail and potentially target the opposite end, or remain balanced within Monday’s range (including slightly above and/or below ). Wednesday brings the release of the FOMC Minutes so remaining in balance would not be unusual ahead of that announcement, barring any major news events.

A break below Monday’s low could target the gap from Friday at 2719.75, although large gaps are rarely filled the day after they are created. There is also an un-visited very wide point of control from the 5/18 profile at 2714.50.

8 day balance
8 day balance

Price acceptance above Monday’s high targets the prior weekly high at 2741.25, and potentially the gap fill from 3/16 at 2752.75.

Monday’s wide point of control could act as either early support or resistance, or a price magnet, on Tuesday.

multi-day trading   range
multi-day trading
range



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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