Marker Profile spike
Market Profile late day downward spike, causing an outside day.

After reaching another new all time high on March 21, 2024 at 5322.75, there is significant excess on the daily chart, but only two ticks of excess on the Market Profile chart. There is also a poor high on the TPO chart (no excess at the high) from 3/22 at 5306.00.

Entering trade on Wednesday, March 24, 2024, there are good odds that price will trade below the late day downward spike from Tuesday at 5282.75 to “repair” the poor structure in the Market Profile chart below the spike.

Three potential trade ideas for March 27, 2024:

1. Opening within the upper balance from Tuesday above the spike, but not taking out Tuesday’s high. In this scenario, look for price to test the base of the spike, and potentially accelerating below it to repair the poor structure. Price acceptance below 5263 could target the naked point of control from 3/20 at 5242, and potentially target the previous all time high at 5257.00 (previous all time highs can act as short term support).

2. Open below the late spike. Above price targets apply.

3. Open above the late day spike and find acceptance at higher prices, targeting the prior day’s high and potentially the 5306 poor high.

Given the outside day from Tuesday, finding acceptance below the late day spike should have higher odds.

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