Tag Archives: anomaly

ES – Balanced inside day following selloff from all time high

Monday’s regular trading session opened within the previous day’s elongated range but below the prior close, and below the late rally high from Friday at 2429.25.

The ES sold lower in the opening period to two ticks above Friday’s single print buying tail, mechanically selling at halfback intra-bar in A period and leaving a long line of single prints (over 8 points) – early clues that the early move lower was probably just a liquidation break rather than from larger time frame money continuing the selloff from Friday.

ES Market Profile chart- Balanced inside day following selloff from all time high
ES Market Profile chart- Balanced inside day following selloff from all time high

Although early ES volume was higher, and first half hour NYSE market volume was substantially higher at over 535,000 shares, price did not find acceptance into Friday’s single print buying tail.

The market balanced in less than an eleven point trading range on Monday, leaving a poor high at 2427.50 (no excess) and a very prominent point of control at 2422.00.

An early reference on Tuesday could be on the prominent point of control, as acceptance above that level has good odds of repairing the poor high. If price can also find acceptance above Monday’s high, odds suggest price would attempt to repair some of the anomalies from Friday’s range.

Split view Market Profile chart 6-12-17
Split view Market Profile chart 6-12-17

Balance trading rules could also apply on Tuesday, depending on where price opens: Look either above or below the high or low and either accelerate, or fail. A failure of an attempted breakout from the inside day could target the opposite end of the balance. Another potential scenario would see price remain balanced around Monday’s range ahead of Wednesday’s 2:00 PM ET FOMC Meeting Announcement.

Potential destination trades to the downside, if price breaks out lower, could include Friday’s low at 2412.20, the June 1st low at
2410.50 and the unrepaired prominent point of control from May 31st at 2405.25 (September contract).

There is now substantial excess at the all time high on the short, intermediate and longer term time frames, although the profile from the June 9th record high is a poor high, with only one tick of excess.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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ES Rallies, Repairs Poor Highs




Going into Thursday’s U.S. pit session, overnight inventory was 100% long as the Globex low was exactly at the 4:15 ET close of the previous pit session. The market opened near the middle of the previous day’s range, two ticks below the overnight high.

Short term traders were evident early as selling came from half back levels intra-bar in A period, but buyers were waiting below as price bounced from a tick above the overnight half back level at the top of the Globex lower distribution, a very visual short term traders reference.

rally from overnight halfback

Price rallied to Wednesday’s point of control in B period, formed a small, balancing inside bar in C, before accelerating higher in E an F repairing the anomalies and the weak, mechanical high at 2349.25 from Wednesday’s profile (weak because it was one tick shy of the April 12th high), also repairing the poor high (one tick of excess) from April 11th at 2352.75.

break out of balance

The market one timeframed higher from the opening period until K period, developing an anomaly between 2348.25/2349.00, and a larger distribution above 2351.00.

Looking at each distribution as a separate balance, balance trading rules could apply to each on Friday: look either above or below a balance and accelerate or fail – on failures the opposite end of the balance becomes the potential target, or remain in balance.

Thursday’s pullback low at 2351.25, two ticks below the close, could also be an important early reference on Friday depending on where price opens. Not finding acceptance back below that level should technically keep Thursday’s uptrend in tact.

While Thursday’s rally appeared to be strong, NYSE daily volume still did not suggest strong market participation from the longer timeframe. The first half hour NYSE volume was under 300k. End of day NYSE volume was higher than the previous day at 3.64 billion, with a late spike near the close.

Carrying forward Thursday’s mechanical low, just one tick above the overnight half back level, and the D period low within a tick of the opening price and overnight high, what potentially occurred on Thursday were well capitalized short term traders putting the squeeze on the shorts.

With the upcoming French Presidential elections beginning on Sunday, and remembering the unpredictable reactions the markets had to the U.S. election and Brexit, the coming days will probably bring a lot of uncertainty and volatility to world markets.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Look Above Balance and Fail, ES One Timeframes Back Into Range

Monday’s ES pit session gapped open two ticks above the prior day’s high. After trading back into the prior range by only one tick, price traded higher in the opening period to one tick below the April 12th daily high at 2349.50. Wednesday’s pit session high can be considered a weak high because it was almost exactly at such an exact reference used by short term traders.

one-timeframe-back-into-balance

By the gap higher opening, price did not first trade back to the prominent back to back points of control and previous pit session close at 2337.75, probably lowering the odds for continuation of the attempted breakout of the balance.

After the low confidence opening and attempted breakout higher stalled (NYSE first half hour volume very light at only 266k) sellers appeared at the opening of F period after a tight D/E bar balance that traded in and out of the prior range (E looked above the inside bar of D, failed, and traded through its low). The market one timeframed lower back through the prior day’s range to within one point of the previous low.

The developing point of control, which began to widen to 5 TPO’s at 2346.00, lowered to 2344.25 in F period and had a chance of lowering again late in the day but ran out of time. Were traders getting short in the hole late? Wednesday’s profile left many anomalies, which always have good odds of being at least partially repaired in the next session or one soon after. Carry that information forward, along with the weak high at the 2349.25/.50 level.

anomalies in market profile chart

Value, which was higher for a good part of the session, finished the day as overlapping to higher.

Depending on where price is at Thursday’s open, the focus could be on the now three close together daily lows at 2331 25, 2330.25 and 2328.75, potentially setting up another “firecracker effect”, where hitting one set of stops below one level will trigger more stops from nearby price levels. Acceleration below those lows should easily see price test the prior weekly low at 2324.00, and potentially targeting the March monthly low at 2318.00, followed the by the psychological 2300 level. There also remains an unfilled gap from February 10th at 2312.75.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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