Tag Archives: failed breakout

Look Above Balance and Fail, ES One Timeframes Back Into Range

Monday’s ES pit session gapped open two ticks above the prior day’s high. After trading back into the prior range by only one tick, price traded higher in the opening period to one tick below the April 12th daily high at 2349.50. Wednesday’s pit session high can be considered a weak high because it was almost exactly at such an exact reference used by short term traders.

one-timeframe-back-into-balance

By the gap higher opening, price did not first trade back to the prominent back to back points of control and previous pit session close at 2337.75, probably lowering the odds for continuation of the attempted breakout of the balance.

After the low confidence opening and attempted breakout higher stalled (NYSE first half hour volume very light at only 266k) sellers appeared at the opening of F period after a tight D/E bar balance that traded in and out of the prior range (E looked above the inside bar of D, failed, and traded through its low). The market one timeframed lower back through the prior day’s range to within one point of the previous low.

The developing point of control, which began to widen to 5 TPO’s at 2346.00, lowered to 2344.25 in F period and had a chance of lowering again late in the day but ran out of time. Were traders getting short in the hole late? Wednesday’s profile left many anomalies, which always have good odds of being at least partially repaired in the next session or one soon after. Carry that information forward, along with the weak high at the 2349.25/.50 level.

anomalies in market profile chart

Value, which was higher for a good part of the session, finished the day as overlapping to higher.

Depending on where price is at Thursday’s open, the focus could be on the now three close together daily lows at 2331 25, 2330.25 and 2328.75, potentially setting up another “firecracker effect”, where hitting one set of stops below one level will trigger more stops from nearby price levels. Acceleration below those lows should easily see price test the prior weekly low at 2324.00, and potentially targeting the March monthly low at 2318.00, followed the by the psychological 2300 level. There also remains an unfilled gap from February 10th at 2312.75.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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Four Day Balance Ahead Of Monthly Jobs Data

The S&P E-mini is trading in a four day balance area heading into Friday’s monthly job report. Market Profile balance trading rules could apply:

1) Remain within balance
2) Look above or below balance and fail; on a failure the opposite extreme becomes the destination trade.
3) Look above or below balance and accelerate; these events could target directional reference levels.

Acceptance on either side of the back to back, very prominent points of control at 2272.50/75 could provide early directional clues. Trading at the point of control (fairest price) before attempting a breakout of balance should increase the odds of continuation from a breakout, failure to first trade to the prominent POC might result in a failed breakout attempt.

While there is now significant excess at the all time pit session high at 2296.50 on both the weekly and monthly bar charts, there is only four ticks of excess on the daily profile chart on the day it was created, it is also a poor high, at two TPO’s wide.

Additionally the all time 24 hour high, made in an overnight session, is at 2298.50, two ticks shy of the psychological 2300 level. To date, all time highs created in the Globex sessions have always been revisited during regular U.S. pit session hours.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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