Tag Archives: one time framing

Gap and Go




The market rallied higher after a gap opening above the prior day’s range, leaving a stretched out profile with multiple anomalies.

gap open higher and rally

Anomalies in the profile generally have high odds of being revisited or “repaired” in a nearby future trading session, as they’re often caused by more emotionally news driven, shorter time frame and day traders.

The rally to one tick below the point of control from 11/8 was four points short of the latest regular session all time high at 2593.50. The all time Globex high, made in an overnight session, is at 2594.50.

split view profile defines late pullback low

Price had one timeframed higher from the open until J period, where the point of control had widened at 2586.75

A key early market profile reference, depending on where price opens on Friday, could be the late pullback low. Acceptance above 2583.25 could keep Thursday’s bullish momentum intact, potentially challenging Thursday’s high at 2589.50, the 11/8 high at 2592.50, and the all time regular and overnight highs (2593.50/2594.50).

Taking out the all time high would bring the psychological 2600.00 level into focus. It could also result in a “look above and fail” scenario.

Failure to find acceptance back above 2583.25 could pressure recent longs and reverse or pause the bullish sentiment from Thursday’s rally, repairing at least some of the anomalies in the profile.

Looking at each distribution from Thursday’s profile as a separate balance, or auction, balance trading scenarios could play out in regards to each: look above or below a balance and accelerate higher or lower, look above or below a balance and fail – targeting the opposite end, or remain in balance.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: 

Trump Tax Plan, New FOMC Chair Brings Little Volatility

Thursday’s profile featured an overlapping to lower value area but a point of control that migrated higher following early selling.

 split view market profile chart
Market Profile daily chart. Split view market profile chart for 11/2/17, within a five day balance

The market stopped one timeframing higher on the weekly chart last week, although it still closed as an outside week. Price has stopped one time one timeframing higher on the daily chart on Thursday, after five consecutive regular hour trading sessions of one time framing higher.

For any potential meaningful change to the downside, price would have to find acceptance back below the base of the late day spike above the near matching F/G/H/J/K/L bar highs that were all within one tick of one another. The wide point of control at 2573.00 would be the next downside reference.

The matching K/L period lows at 2571.00 were very mechanical and probably have decent odds of being revisited. Price rallied from there to spike above the L bar high in M period, possibly just as a stop run by shorter timer frame traders.

Generally, acceptance or rejection of a late day spike on the next trading day either confirms or rejects the direction of the late day price probe – opening and remaining above it is positive, opening below it is negative, and opening within it shows possible acceptance and a place where two sided trade can take place.

Acceptance above Thursday’s POC and base of the late spike probe higher targets Thursday’s poor high at 2578.25 and potentially the excess above the prior week’s high at 2580.75. Removing that excess challenges the latest all time high from 11/1 at 2585.50. The very psychological 2600 level could next be on the radar in the event of a rally to new all time highs.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: 

Low Volume Breakout of Balance

After a low volume breakout of the previous inside day the ES left another poor high on the Market Profile chart, trading back into the excess single print selling tail from March 21st.

another-poor-high

Price acceptance above Thursday’s high will continue to fill in the March 21st selloff excess, retracing the downward move and possibly challenge the previous weekly high made on that day at 2378.75, ending the month on a bullish note.

The market is one timeframing higher on the daily chart going into the last trading day of the month. Price would have to trade above 2378.75 to stop the one timeframing lower on the weekly.

If Thursday’s poor high is repaired, monitor price for continuation above Thursday’s balance, or for a potential “look above and fail” scenario.

value-area-higher

If price finds acceptance below 2358.50 and into the A period buying tail excess single prints, Thursday’s low at 2354.00 should have good odds of being tested, which would put price back into the prior balance.

During Tuesday’s rally, the late pullback low at 2351.00 (also the March 9th pullback low from the all time high) was an important trading reference. After being tested on Wednesday price rallied, although very mechanically and on declining volume, from that level. Trading below 2351.00 could bring more downside pressure.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: