Tag Archives: overnight inventory

ES Still Trading Inside June 9th Selloff Range

ES Market Profile chart 6/15/17

ES short covering rally off prior and overnight low

After a gap lower opening (100% short overnight inventory) and a volatile first hour opening range, the market grinded higher off the overnight low, trading in and out of the previous range for most of the session before short covering into the close. Price settled back inside the prior range, but did not reach the close or very prominent point of control from Wednesday. Value remained lower on the day.

The point of control rose slightly higher intra-day on Thursday from an earlier 5 TPO wide at 2423.50, to 6 and 7 wide at 2425.50 as price gained acceptance – although very mechanically – back above the prior low (mechanically because the H and J bar lows were just one tick below Wednesday’s low, a very visual short term trader’s reference).

ES split view market profile chart 6-15-17
ES split view market profile chart 6-15-17

Thursday’s profile left multiple anomalies and a questionably weak low – just a tick below the overnight low and two ticks below the June 12th low.

The ES is balancing below its recent record high at 2443.50, inside the elongated trading range from the June 9th selloff. If price opens within this range on Friday, notable Market Profile references include the June 14th very wide point of control at 2436.25, the poor “no excess” all time high at 2443.50, and the many anomalies and weak low from Thursday: wide POC’s often act as a magnet drawing price back to it, and poor highs/lows and anomalies beg to be revisited/repaired.

Depending on the open, Thursday’s high/close at 2432.50/.25 could also be significant. Failing to trade above the high would keep the market in a one timeframing lower mode on the daily chart.

Other potential scenarios, if price trades near the outside edges of the balance on Friday, would be monitoring price for acceptance or rejection either above the range high/all time high at 2443.50, or below the low of the range and prior weekly low at 2412.50. Trading below 2412.50 stops the one timeframing higher on the weekly chart.

Acceptance below 2412.50 probably targets the prominent naked point of control from May 31st at 2405.25 and the psychological 2400 level. Price acceptance above the all time high puts price in more uncharted territory.

In a look above or below balance and fail scenario, the potential always exists for price to trade to the opposite extreme of the balance. This scenario probably has the lowest of odds because of the wide range, but the potential exists.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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ES Tests 2367.00 Prior Range High, Leaves Poor Low

With overnight inventory 100% short from the previous pit session’s close, the market opened at 2372.00 on Monday, inside the gap between the prior pit session low at 2374.25 and February 28th high at 2367.00.

There was no attempt early to correct the short overnight inventory, but short term and day time frame traders continued to dominate the market, driving price lower from the overnight Globex session point of control at 2373.25 to just one tick above the Globex low at 2368.50 in the opening half hour period.

Bouncing mechanically from the overnight low, the B period high traded to just one tick above the A period high, making it an early poor high, before reversing again and grinding its way lower again in C/D periods to fill the gap from February 28th (and top of prior four day trading range) to the tick at 2367.00.

Monday’s regular trading hours market profile chart left a poor C/D period low, with only one TPO of excess, at 2367.00.

With no trade below 2367.00 the market looked like it found a place where two sided trade could take place, developing a six TPO wide point of control at 2370.00. But the combination of the short overnight inventory, early short pit session inventory and the lack of price continuation lower probably all led to what appeared to be a short covering rally, sparked by a breakout above the small range, inside bar of E period. The market one timeframed higher off the low, accelerating through the earlier A/B poor high, filling the gap and finding acceptance back inside the previous range.

The low from Friday at 2374.25 very mechanically offered support for the I, J and K bar lows, but an attempted breakout in L period above the two consecutive J/K inside bars fizzled, with price failing to reach Friday’s wide point of control and falling back to Friday’s low.

Price breached that support low and tested the lower distribution high at 2373.50 in the final minutes of the session, before settling to close at 2375.50, two ticks above the point of control which had migrated higher in the final period. Value finished the session as mainly lower.

The market is one timeframing lower on the daily chart, and would have to trade below 2357.25 to stop the onetimeframing lower on the weekly. Depending on where price is at Tuesday’s pit session open, Monday’s late pullback low at 2373.50 could be an important trading reference. Price acceptance below that level, and into the lower distribution, could easily lead to a test of Monday’s poor low at 2367.00. Acceptance below 2367.00 and back into the prior trading range has the potential to see price test the opposite end of that range at 2351.50.

If price can find acceptance and remain above 2373.50 on Tuesday, and more importantly above Monday’s POC and close at 2375.00/.50, the high at 2378.25 is the next visual resistance level, as trading above Monday’s high would stop the one timeframing lower on the daily.

The next higher market profile trading references, and potential targets, if price can rally above Monday’s high are last Friday’s wide point of control at 2380.00 and high at 2383.25, followed by the wide point of control from March 2nd at 2386.00.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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