ES Market Profile chart 6/15/17
After a gap lower opening (100% short overnight inventory) and a volatile first hour opening range, the market grinded higher off the overnight low, trading in and out of the previous range for most of the session before short covering into the close. Price settled back inside the prior range, but did not reach the close or very prominent point of control from Wednesday. Value remained lower on the day.
The point of control rose slightly higher intra-day on Thursday from an earlier 5 TPO wide at 2423.50, to 6 and 7 wide at 2425.50 as price gained acceptance – although very mechanically – back above the prior low (mechanically because the H and J bar lows were just one tick below Wednesday’s low, a very visual short term trader’s reference).
Thursday’s profile left multiple anomalies and a questionably weak low – just a tick below the overnight low and two ticks below the June 12th low.
The ES is balancing below its recent record high at 2443.50, inside the elongated trading range from the June 9th selloff. If price opens within this range on Friday, notable Market Profile references include the June 14th very wide point of control at 2436.25, the poor “no excess” all time high at 2443.50, and the many anomalies and weak low from Thursday: wide POC’s often act as a magnet drawing price back to it, and poor highs/lows and anomalies beg to be revisited/repaired.
Depending on the open, Thursday’s high/close at 2432.50/.25 could also be significant. Failing to trade above the high would keep the market in a one timeframing lower mode on the daily chart.
Other potential scenarios, if price trades near the outside edges of the balance on Friday, would be monitoring price for acceptance or rejection either above the range high/all time high at 2443.50, or below the low of the range and prior weekly low at 2412.50. Trading below 2412.50 stops the one timeframing higher on the weekly chart.
Acceptance below 2412.50 probably targets the prominent naked point of control from May 31st at 2405.25 and the psychological 2400 level. Price acceptance above the all time high puts price in more uncharted territory.
In a look above or below balance and fail scenario, the potential always exists for price to trade to the opposite extreme of the balance. This scenario probably has the lowest of odds because of the wide range, but the potential exists.
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