Tag Archives: double distribution

Double Distribution, Wide POC

market profile double distribution

If price opens within this range early focus could be on acceptance or rejection of the separate distributions.

Price acceptance below Friday’s low could target the prior weekly low, as Friday’s liquidation break could equate to a failed break out of balance to the upside.

If price reenters a prior distribution the potential exists to reach the opposite end of that balance. If price does re-enter the upper distribution the excess single prints could be tested. Acceptance back above 2694.75 could target the 4/19 high at 2703.50, which could be considered a weak reference, as price traded to just a single tick below the 4/18 low following a small gap opening lower.



(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Double Distribution, Inside Day



Double Distribution, Inside Day
Double Distribution, Inside Day.

Wednesday morning is the release of the US CPI data, which could bring more volatility. A higher number could pressure stocks, a lower number could boost stocks.

Early focus could be on price acceptance in regards to each distribution from Tuesday’s profile, with potential balance trading scenarios applying:

Look above or below a distribution and either find acceptance and developing value at the higher or lower prices, or look above or below a distribution and fail, returning back into that balance and targeting the opposite end.

With the recent market volatility, eemaining within a distribution for a considerable period probably has the lowest odds. Tuesday was also an inside day, a large move away from either side of the range is possible.

From ForexLive.com:

Tomorrow at 8:30 AM ET/1330, the US CPI will be released. With all the focus on inflation since the US employment report, this will be a key release for rates, stocks and the dollar as well. If it moderates, it could go a long way toward easing fears about the inflation scare, 3 or 4 tightenings in 2018 and the stock market concerns. Conversely, if it surprises to the upside, the higher yields, lower stocks and 4 tightenings will be back in play.

The expectations are the following:
CPI MoM 0.3% vs 0.2% last month
Core CPI MoM 0.2% vs 0.2% last month
YoY for CPI is expected to decline to 1.9% from 2.1% last month
YoY core is also expected to decline to 1.7% from 1.8% last month.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Inflation may be under new scrutiny but one place it has been hard to find is in consumer prices. And not much price traction is expected to appear in January’s report with the core rate (less food & energy) seen up a modest 0.2 percent with the year-on-year expected to fall 1 tenth to 1.7 percent. The consensus for the headline CPI is a gain of 0.3 percent for a yearly rate that is also down 1 tenth, at 2.0 percent. ~
econoday.com



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Double distribution at new all time high

double distribution at new all time high

After setting another new record high in the overnight trading session at 2747.75, Monday’s regular session opened inside the prior day’s range, above the late spike in the profile at 2735.00. Overnight highs and lows are always references for the following day trading session.

Price one timeframed higher from the opening period until reaching the overnight high, to the tick, in J period, and formed a double distribution in the profile chart above 2745.00 before setting another new regular session all time high at 2748.50 in the final 30 minute period.

With two unfilled daily gaps from the prior week the risk for longs appears to be high, which increases the odds for at least a short term liquidation break. But the market is still one timeframing higher on the monthly chart, 13 consecutive months, and all trends remain up.

Looking at each of Monday’s distribution as a separate balance, depending n where price opens, balance trading scenarios could apply: look either above or below a distribution and find acceptance higher/lower, look above or below a distribution and fail – targeting the opposite end, or remain in balance (probably lowest of odds).

There are only two ticks of excess at the new all time high, but depending on where price opens on Tuesday, there could be significant excess on the daily bar chart. Something to carry forward if a liquidation break does occur.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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