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Three Distributions, Anomalies in Profile Chart




Friday’s ES regular trading hour session ended the light volume holiday week closing with three separate distributions/anomalies in the profile.

If price opens inside Friday’s upper distribution on Monday, balance rules could apply:

– Look either above or below the poor high at 2425.00 or late pullback low at 2421.50 and accelerate/find acceptance
– Look above or below balance and fail, returning into and targeting the opposite end of the distribution
– Remain balanced (lowest of odds because of the small range).

If a gap open higher, monitor price for acceptance back into the upper distribution.

Price acceptance below Friday’s late pullback low and low of the upper distribution at 2421.25/.50 targets the middle and lower distributions from Friday. Acceptance back into the lower distribution below 2418.00 potentially targets Friday’s low at 2412.00 and the current low of the month at 2405.25. Acceptance below 2405.25 targets the June low at 2402.25, challenging the monthly higher one timeframing.

Potential targets (carrying forward) if price finds acceptance above Friday’s high:

– July 5th’s prominent point of control at 2428.50
– July 5th high at 2423.25
– Poor high from 7/3 at 2436.50
– Poor/matching highs from 6/28, 6/29 at 2440.50
– Poor high from 6/26 at 2447.50
– All time high at 2451.50, only two ticks of TPO chart excess

Three poor highs above Friday’s poor high:

three poor highs above market

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




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ES Price Contained in Prior Day’s Upper Distribution, Leaving Both a Poor High and Poor Low

Thursday’s ES pit session opened inside of the upper distribution from the the prior pit session, and after chopping around in a small three point range in the first period, the second (B) period high matched the first (A) period high to the tick, making it a poor high, just below the prior late M period excess single prints.

poor high and poor low on market profile chart

Before breaking lower in B period, price breached Wednesday’s late pullback low at 2378.50 by three ticks. The overnight Globex low, 2378.25, was also just a tick below the pullback low.

The C bar low tested the B period low, trading to within one tick of it, making it a poor low before mechanically bouncing back to one tick below half back.

Split view Market Profile chart:
market profile chart split view s&p 500 emini futures contract

Price had breached the late pullback low, challenging the previous day’s uptrend, opening the door to potentially more downside continuation.

Although the A/B period high is poor, it is just a single data point. D period made a new low, accelerating lower to the low of Wednesday’s upper distribution at 2374.50 (to the tick) and quickly bounced. E period traded below the D bar low but was quickly rejected, with no acceptance back into the lower distribution, and a wide point of control began to develop at 2378. A later break in K/L periods was again rejected at the low, making another poor low, and price returned back to the wide point of control. The POC ended the session twelve TPO’s wide POC at 2378.25.

If price reenters a prior balance, in this case Wednesday’s lower distribution, the potential exists for price to trade to the opposite end of the balance (Wednesday’s low). Price never found acceptance back into Wednesday’s lower distribution on Thursday.

The current profile features both a poor high and a poor low, along with a wide point of control at 2378.25. With both short and intermediate time frames now balancing, Thursdays point of control at 2378.25 could provide either support or resistance on Friday, depending on which side of it the market opens. Price acceptance above the POC could easily see price retest and repair Thursdays poor high at 2384.50. Acceptance below the POC could pressure recent FOMC longs and retest Thursday’s poor low.

Acceptance back below Thursday’s low puts price back into Wednesdays lower distribution. When price reenters a prior balance the potential destination trade is the opposite end of the balance (Wednesday’s low at 2365.75). There is an unrepaired naked point of control from March 13th at 2361.25 that could act as a price magnet should the market get legs to the downside.

If price does break out of the one day balance to either side, the odds of continuation of the breakout should be greater if price first visits the very prominent point of control (fairest price) first.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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