Tag Archives: single print

ES Price Contained in Prior Day’s Upper Distribution, Leaving Both a Poor High and Poor Low

Thursday’s ES pit session opened inside of the upper distribution from the the prior pit session, and after chopping around in a small three point range in the first period, the second (B) period high matched the first (A) period high to the tick, making it a poor high, just below the prior late M period excess single prints.

poor high and poor low on market profile chart

Before breaking lower in B period, price breached Wednesday’s late pullback low at 2378.50 by three ticks. The overnight Globex low, 2378.25, was also just a tick below the pullback low.

The C bar low tested the B period low, trading to within one tick of it, making it a poor low before mechanically bouncing back to one tick below half back.

Split view Market Profile chart:
market profile chart split view s&p 500 emini futures contract

Price had breached the late pullback low, challenging the previous day’s uptrend, opening the door to potentially more downside continuation.

Although the A/B period high is poor, it is just a single data point. D period made a new low, accelerating lower to the low of Wednesday’s upper distribution at 2374.50 (to the tick) and quickly bounced. E period traded below the D bar low but was quickly rejected, with no acceptance back into the lower distribution, and a wide point of control began to develop at 2378. A later break in K/L periods was again rejected at the low, making another poor low, and price returned back to the wide point of control. The POC ended the session twelve TPO’s wide POC at 2378.25.

If price reenters a prior balance, in this case Wednesday’s lower distribution, the potential exists for price to trade to the opposite end of the balance (Wednesday’s low). Price never found acceptance back into Wednesday’s lower distribution on Thursday.

The current profile features both a poor high and a poor low, along with a wide point of control at 2378.25. With both short and intermediate time frames now balancing, Thursdays point of control at 2378.25 could provide either support or resistance on Friday, depending on which side of it the market opens. Price acceptance above the POC could easily see price retest and repair Thursdays poor high at 2384.50. Acceptance below the POC could pressure recent FOMC longs and retest Thursday’s poor low.

Acceptance back below Thursday’s low puts price back into Wednesdays lower distribution. When price reenters a prior balance the potential destination trade is the opposite end of the balance (Wednesday’s low at 2365.75). There is an unrepaired naked point of control from March 13th at 2361.25 that could act as a price magnet should the market get legs to the downside.

If price does break out of the one day balance to either side, the odds of continuation of the breakout should be greater if price first visits the very prominent point of control (fairest price) first.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: 

Market Rallies After FOMC Rate Decision

The ES gapped open above Tuesday’s pit session high on Wednesday, and very mechanically bounced from one tick above it at 2365.75, which was also (very mechanically) Monday’s low.

Trading ahead of Wednesday’s anticipated FOMC decision the market one timeframed higher in narrow range 30 minute bars for the first 7 periods, repairing the back to back poor daily highs from March 10th and 13th.

The market rallied after the release of 2pm EST FOMC rate decision, where the FED voted to raise its benchmark fed-funds rate by a quarter percentage point, to a range of 0.75% to 1%, and said it still expects to raise short-term interest rates two more times in 2017. The market was not surprised as this move was widely anticipated.

Wednesday’s market profile chart closed the session as a double distribution. Depending on where price opens on Thursday, the late pullback low at 2378.50, and single print separating the upper and lower distributions at 2374.75, could be important early market profile trading references.

Generally, If a late pullback low is not violated, there is no meaningful change in the opposite direction of the prior day’s upward trend. Acceptance above 2378.50 keeps the late upward rally from Wednesday intact. A breach of that level could easily see price test the upper distribution low at 2375.25.

Price acceptance back inside the lower distribution could see price test the opposite end of the balance, the very mechanical low from Wednesday at 2365.75, which was also very mechanically just a tick above the prior day’s high. Tuesday’s very prominent point of control at 2362.25 should also be carried forward.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: 

ES – One Day Balance, Inside Day Near All Time High

Short term traders controlled Thursday’s pit session, mechanically trading off very visual references:

– 2349.75 A period high of day is just one tick below previous close
– 2347.75 C period high one is tick below open price
– 2336.75 D period low of day is exactly at Wednesday’s single print

A new Globex high was not created before the U.S. pit session opened, 2351.00 is still the all time S&P emini high. Thursday’s market profile is balanced.

Although the market appears to be dangerously long, it is still trending higher in the short, intermediate and longer time frames. It is also one timeframing higher on the daily, weekly and monthly time frames. Price would have to take out 2336.75 on Friday to stop one timeframing higher on the daily, and all the way down to 2318.50 to stop the weekly one timeframing.

Both Thursday’s high and low are at exacting references – the high at 2349.75 is one tick from the previous close, the 2336.75 low exactly at Wednesday’s single print – both have good odds of being revisited. Thursday’s wide point of control at 2342.25 could be of significance early, if price first trades to the POC before attempting any breakout, the breakout could have better odds of continuation.

If the market opens within range, balance trading rules could apply to the inside day: Look above or below either side of the balance and accelerate, look above or below either side of the balance and fail -with the opposite end of the range becoming the potential detestation trade, or remain in balance.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: