Tag Archives: market profile poor high

Volatility, Late Selling, Market Still One Timeframing Higher on Daily Chart

market-profile-chart-April-25-26-2017

The ES opened a tick below the previous pit session close on Wednesday, traded two ticks lower to one tick below the overnight session half back and wide point of control at 2384.50, bounced, then tested the low again before slowly grinding higher in another low confidence, slow paced start to the U.S. pit session.

split view market profile charts April 25.26

After grinding higher through D period, volatility entered the market with price selling off sharply in E period and re-entering the prior day’s range, but with no follow through price rallied back to the high, leaving a poor high at 2394.75 with only one tick of excess. Price sold off in the final hour of the day on higher volume, driving price lower to Tuesday’s G period low.

The point of control widened from 5 TPO’s at 2388.50 in G period to 10 wide at 2389.00 by the end of the day. Value was higher.

Wednesday’s low at 2382.00 could be a potential go/no go price level on Thursday – acceptance below the low would stop the one timeframing higher on the daily chart and pressure recent longs, potentially driving price down through the excess single prints and attempt to fill the gap from Monday. If price can reenter a prior balance, Monday’s squat profile, there is the potential of trading to the opposite side of the balance.

Failure for price to find acceptance below the now congested 2382.00 level would keep the week’s bullish tone in tact, but price would have to find acceptance above Wednesday’s wide POC and late breakdown point at 2389.00 to repair the poor high at 2394.75 and make a run at the all time high.

The all time high on the ES futures June contract is at 2398.00. The all time high from the March contract was 2401.00. The psychological 2400 level was not reached in the June contract after rollover.

ES daily chart through April 26

ES-daily-chart

(the above post, and all posts on , es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)

Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: 

Balanced, Inside Day on Last Trading Day of Month, Quarter

Balanced, inside day on the last trading day in the month and quarter on Friday. Price failed to trade below the previous day’s excess single prints at 2358.50 until the final half hour period.

Friday’s high at 2366.75, also the weekly high, was exactly at the prior day’s poor high (no excess TPO’s).

poor and weak high on market profile chart

Depending on where price opens on Monday, balance trading rules could apply: look above or below the one day balance and accelerate or fail, or remain balancing.

One potential “look above and fail” day trading scenario could see price repair the back to back poor/weak highs at 2366.75 and fail, returning back into the two day balance to test Friday’s low at 2357.75. Acceptance below that level would stop the one timeframing higher on the daily chart and would probably test Thursday’s 2354.00 low.

Lower potential price targets, should selling intensify, are the March 29th low at 2348.75, March 28th single print at 2342.75 and single print and prior trading range low at 2131.50.

If/when the market finds acceptance below the 2332 prior support level and if there is more serious selling pressure, more extreme levels could include the March 28th low at 2318.00 and unfilled gap (eventually) from February at 2312.75.

To the upside, acceptance above Friday’s poor high keeps the short term uptrend intact and would stop the one timeframing lower on the weekly chart, potentially targeting the remaining single prints and 2378.75 high from March the 21st selloff, and 3 daily highs above that level, including the March 16th poor high at 2384.50, which was mechanically at the upper excess level from the March 15th recovery high.

The all time S&P 500 Emini high on the March contract is at 2398.50. It is also a “poor” high.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: 

ES Price Contained in Prior Day’s Upper Distribution, Leaving Both a Poor High and Poor Low

Thursday’s ES pit session opened inside of the upper distribution from the the prior pit session, and after chopping around in a small three point range in the first period, the second (B) period high matched the first (A) period high to the tick, making it a poor high, just below the prior late M period excess single prints.

poor high and poor low on market profile chart

Before breaking lower in B period, price breached Wednesday’s late pullback low at 2378.50 by three ticks. The overnight Globex low, 2378.25, was also just a tick below the pullback low.

The C bar low tested the B period low, trading to within one tick of it, making it a poor low before mechanically bouncing back to one tick below half back.

Split view Market Profile chart:
market profile chart split view s&p 500 emini futures contract

Price had breached the late pullback low, challenging the previous day’s uptrend, opening the door to potentially more downside continuation.

Although the A/B period high is poor, it is just a single data point. D period made a new low, accelerating lower to the low of Wednesday’s upper distribution at 2374.50 (to the tick) and quickly bounced. E period traded below the D bar low but was quickly rejected, with no acceptance back into the lower distribution, and a wide point of control began to develop at 2378. A later break in K/L periods was again rejected at the low, making another poor low, and price returned back to the wide point of control. The POC ended the session twelve TPO’s wide POC at 2378.25.

If price reenters a prior balance, in this case Wednesday’s lower distribution, the potential exists for price to trade to the opposite end of the balance (Wednesday’s low). Price never found acceptance back into Wednesday’s lower distribution on Thursday.

The current profile features both a poor high and a poor low, along with a wide point of control at 2378.25. With both short and intermediate time frames now balancing, Thursdays point of control at 2378.25 could provide either support or resistance on Friday, depending on which side of it the market opens. Price acceptance above the POC could easily see price retest and repair Thursdays poor high at 2384.50. Acceptance below the POC could pressure recent FOMC longs and retest Thursday’s poor low.

Acceptance back below Thursday’s low puts price back into Wednesdays lower distribution. When price reenters a prior balance the potential destination trade is the opposite end of the balance (Wednesday’s low at 2365.75). There is an unrepaired naked point of control from March 13th at 2361.25 that could act as a price magnet should the market get legs to the downside.

If price does break out of the one day balance to either side, the odds of continuation of the breakout should be greater if price first visits the very prominent point of control (fairest price) first.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: