Tag Archives: spike base

Balanced Day, Poor High at Latest New All Time High

After making yet another new all time high in the overnight Globex session at 2370.00, the S&P 500 E-mini U.S. pit session opened the week near the high of the previous week’s four day trading balance, and inside Friday’s late day spike above 2360.50. Generally, opening inside a spike shows acceptance of the higher prices from the prior day’s late price surge.

After trading through the top of the balance multiple times in B, C and D period, but short of the new all time Globex session high, price mechanically bounced off the open price at 2363.75 in the sixth (F) period before grinding higher to take out the new high by a few ticks, putting in a new all time pit session high at 2370.75. The new all time high can be considered a poor high on the market profile chart, since it has only one tick of excess at the L/M bar highs.

Monday’s point of control at 2366.00, just below the four day balance high, could be an early trading reference for Tuesday’s pit session. Although value had developed higher on Monday, the point of control did not migrate higher with the breakout from the four day balance.

If price does not make another new all time high during Monday’s overnight session, and opens inside Monday’s range, the POC could be early support or resistance. If the market opens below the POC and ignores Monday’s poor high, price should easily test Monday’s weak F period pullback low to the open and possibly retest Friday’s spike base at 2360.50. Below that level is a very prominent NPOC at 2358.00 that could act as a price magnet, pulling price back towards it.

If price does reenter and is accepted back inside the four day balance the lower extreme at 2351.00 (of the balance) has the potential to be a destination trade. If profit taking ensues and price sells off further, lower potential price targets are noted in this recent market profile recap.

Acceptance above Monday’s pit session point of control and close could easily see price test and repair the new all time high.

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ES Sells Off, Monthly One Time Framing Higher Ends

The ES gapped open lower on Friday and sold off more than 55 points from its previous close, one time framing lower in every 30 minute period but one.


Will this wide price range now become a new trading range where two-sided trade can take place, or will the eminis continue lower in search of balance? While ES futures volume was split between the back and front month contracts in rollover, NYSE volume was moderately higher at 4.2 billion compared to the size of the downward price move.

Usually there is no point of control on trend days where the market is one time framing lower for most of the session, but the market tried to find balance late on Friday in I through M periods, forming a five TPO wide POC at 2138.50 but broke lower in M period. If the ES pit session opens Monday morning within Friday’s large trading range, the late day spike base at 2134.00 could be an important trading reference.

Opening and trading above 2134.00 would suggest the spike was rejected, leaving a buying tail, while opening below the spike base would suggest price has not auctioned low enough to cut off the selling, and price is still looking for two-sided trade. Opening within the spike suggests price is accepted and the downward break remains intact, and two-sided trade can take place.

On the larger timeframe charts, the ES has now stopped one timeframing higher on the monthly chart, and the weekly bar printed as an outside week. Both very negative.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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