Tag Archives: NPOC

Balanced Day, Poor High at Latest New All Time High

After making yet another new all time high in the overnight Globex session at 2370.00, the S&P 500 E-mini U.S. pit session opened the week near the high of the previous week’s four day trading balance, and inside Friday’s late day spike above 2360.50. Generally, opening inside a spike shows acceptance of the higher prices from the prior day’s late price surge.

After trading through the top of the balance multiple times in B, C and D period, but short of the new all time Globex session high, price mechanically bounced off the open price at 2363.75 in the sixth (F) period before grinding higher to take out the new high by a few ticks, putting in a new all time pit session high at 2370.75. The new all time high can be considered a poor high on the market profile chart, since it has only one tick of excess at the L/M bar highs.

Monday’s point of control at 2366.00, just below the four day balance high, could be an early trading reference for Tuesday’s pit session. Although value had developed higher on Monday, the point of control did not migrate higher with the breakout from the four day balance.

If price does not make another new all time high during Monday’s overnight session, and opens inside Monday’s range, the POC could be early support or resistance. If the market opens below the POC and ignores Monday’s poor high, price should easily test Monday’s weak F period pullback low to the open and possibly retest Friday’s spike base at 2360.50. Below that level is a very prominent NPOC at 2358.00 that could act as a price magnet, pulling price back towards it.

If price does reenter and is accepted back inside the four day balance the lower extreme at 2351.00 (of the balance) has the potential to be a destination trade. If profit taking ensues and price sells off further, lower potential price targets are noted in this recent market profile recap.

Acceptance above Monday’s pit session point of control and close could easily see price test and repair the new all time high.

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ES Rally Off Overnight Low Leads to Outside Day

After a volatile premarket session following the U.S. Presidential Debate, the ES pit session opened within two ticks above its previous low, quickly accelerated lower to two ticks below the overnight low, and reversed back into and through the previous day’s trading range. Price was not accepted below Monday’s low.

The low at 2132.75 added another potential weak layer to the grouping of the similar lows from 9/19 – 9/21.

rally-off-overnight-low-leads-to-outside-day

After a volatile first three periods the ES rallied in D period, one timeframing higher through I period before stopping exactly at the overnight session high at 2154.00.

Tuesday’s point of control migrated higher throughout the session with value developing overlapping to higher from the previous day.

Price was accepted above Monday’s high, briefly dipping back into the previous range in M period but reversed and rallied back to the high into the close.

The M period pullback low at 2148.75 could be an important short term trading reference on Wednesday. Acceptance below the single print at 2148.50 could see price rotate back through Tuesday’s lower distribution.

Acceptance above the 2148.75 late pullback low could easily test Tuesday’s high, which could be considered a weak high because it was also exactly at the overnight high. Acceleration and/or acceptance above 2154.00 could easily test the prior trading range high at 2158.00. There are also two naked points of control at 2162.50 and 2169.25.

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A Very Mechanical Day Trading in the ES

The market opened at the lower end of the previous day’s range on Thursday, looking briefly below Wednesday’s low then rallying back into its range, trading to and pulling back from very visual references and suggesting early that this day was being controlled by short and day time frame traders:

mechanical-trading-ES

– In A period, price traded higher exactly to the combined, visual references of the overnight session half back/single print from Wednesday at 2172.75, and pulled back exactly to the opening price before rallying again.

– In B period, price traded higher exactly to the wide point of control from the overnight session at 2174.75 (2 ticks shy of unchanged), then pulled back to just one tick above the current session’s half back level at 2171.50.

D period rallied higher but failed to gain acceptance above Wednesday’s late rally high and overnight high at 2176.00.

– E and F periods sold lower, but F bounced exactly off the floating half back level at 2172.50, more mechanical trading.

There are often good odds that very visual, mechanically traded levels like the F and earlier B period lows could be revisited, either during the same trading session or soon after. After balancing in G and H periods and forming an 8 wide point of control at 2173.75 the market broke lower, trading through the B & F references in I period but bounced from just one tick above the opening print. The mechanical trading continued.

The wide developing point of control at 2173.75 lowered the odds of price trading too far away from it. J,K and L periods all traded within just one tick of the A period low, making it a poor low on Thursday’s market profile chart, but could not get continuation below the earlier low.

For any meaningful continuation lower a second, lower distribution would probably have to develop and the developing point of control should migrate lower. Neither happened. Price balanced through M period, and the point of control failed to migrate lower. The market apparently short covered back to its POC at the end of the regular session.

Thursday ended as a balanced day, with a poor low and lower value. The market is now one timeframing lower for three consecutive days. Trading with acceptance above Thursday’s unchanged/POC level could target Thursday’s high. Failure to trade above 2177.25 keeps the one timeframing lower on the daily chart intact.

Acceptance below Thursday’s poor low could easily target the previous weekly low at 2165.25 and the bottom of the unfilled gap on the daily chart at 2163.50. There is also a very prominent naked point of control left from Aug. 4 at 2159.00.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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