Tag Archives: point of control

Market Sells Off From Inside Day, Short Covers Into Close

The ES opened near the lower end of Friday’s small range, inside day on the first trading day in April, immediately testing Friday’s low to within a tick at 2358. But after a low confidence, less than 4 point opening period price accelerated lower through the low.

Monday’s early selloff appeared to be a liquidation break from shorter term traders rather than from longer term money selling, evident by the short covering rally into the close.

Short term traders in control

An early bounce in B period off its low at 2352.75 up to 2357.75 went back exactly to Friday’s low, and the selling resumed from the C period high at 2358.00, just one tick above that level, a very obvious short term traders’reference.

Although price sold off sharply, accelerating through two consecutive daily lows and into the March 28th lower distribution, Monday’s low at 2340.00 was not re-tested, and a wide point of control began to develop at 2348.00, turning 8 wide by K period.

Depending on where price opens on Tuesday, Monday’s rally high at 2357.70 could be an important early reference. Opening and finding acceptance above 2357.50 nullifies Monday’s early downtrend, and price could gravitate back to the prominent back-to-back points of control at 2362.25/.50 and on its way to repairing the back-to-back poor daily highs at 2366.75, also the prior weekly high. Opening and finding acceptance below 2357.50 keeps Monday’s early downtrend intact.

The market has stopped one timeframing higher on the daily chart, and is still one timeframing lower on the weekly. Monday’s point of control at 2348.00 did not migrate higher with the late rally. If price opens below Monday’s close, early focus could be on price acceptance either above or below the point of control, and developing value.

Failure for price to find acceptance above Monday’s POC should see a test Monday’s excess single print buying tail at the low. A breach of 2340.00 could re-test the March 28th lower distribution/balance low at 2338.50 and the prior support level at 2332. If there is more serious selling below prior support, more extreme levels price levels could come into play including last week’s low at 2318.00 and the unfilled gap from February at 2312.75.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer




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ES Remains in Range After TrumpCare Bill Pulled

After a no-vote on the repeal of ObamaCare in the US House of Representatives on Friday the ES stayed in its 2 1/2 day trading range, just briefly looking below it late before short covering into the close

Split-view Market Profile charts on March 23rd and 24th:

The ES opened near the center of the recent trading range and traded at a sluggish pace early as traders still waited for the House to vote on the repeal of ObamaCare and replacement with TrumpCare. Price grinded higher exactly to Thursday’s rally high at 2352.00 in C period, trading a few ticks above it in D period to the level the market broke down from on Thursday.

A sharp spike lower in F period ran the stops below the near matching C/D/E lows, but with no continuation the market bounced back to the developing 6 TPO wide point of control at 2348.50, widening to 8 TPO’s by H period.

After trading lower in I and J, the market broke sharply again in K and L periods, looking below the prior day’s low at 2338.25. But with the combination of low volume (NYSE daily volume was under 2.98 billion), slowing pace, a weak L period high and a wide point of control above price failed to break out of the range and continue lower, and quickly short covered in the final 30 minute trading period almost all the way back to the magnetic point of control.

Depending on where price opens on Monday, Friday’s late rally high at 2347.25 could be an important early trading reference. Opening below and not violating the rally high could infer the late rally was just short covering and Friday’s prevailing down trend is still in tact, increasing the odds of a retest of the weekly low at 2331.75. If a breakout to the downside occurs potential lower targets are the unfilled gap from February 10 at 2312.75 and the emotional 2300.00 price level.

Price acceptance above the rally high and wide point of control from Friday could easily see price test Friday’s high at 2352.75 and attempt to repair the poor high from Wednesday at 2356.00, and Tuesday’s lower distribution high at 2357.25. Higher references include the single print at 2361.75 and the long string of excess single prints above the anomaly at 2364.50.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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