Tag Archives: point of control

ES Sells Off, Monthly One Time Framing Higher Ends

The ES gapped open lower on Friday and sold off more than 55 points from its previous close, one time framing lower in every 30 minute period but one.

september-9th-es-selloff

Will this wide price range now become a new trading range where two-sided trade can take place, or will the eminis continue lower in search of balance? While ES futures volume was split between the back and front month contracts in rollover, NYSE volume was moderately higher at 4.2 billion compared to the size of the downward price move.

Usually there is no point of control on trend days where the market is one time framing lower for most of the session, but the market tried to find balance late on Friday in I through M periods, forming a five TPO wide POC at 2138.50 but broke lower in M period. If the ES pit session opens Monday morning within Friday’s large trading range, the late day spike base at 2134.00 could be an important trading reference.

Opening and trading above 2134.00 would suggest the spike was rejected, leaving a buying tail, while opening below the spike base would suggest price has not auctioned low enough to cut off the selling, and price is still looking for two-sided trade. Opening within the spike suggests price is accepted and the downward break remains intact, and two-sided trade can take place.

On the larger timeframe charts, the ES has now stopped one timeframing higher on the monthly chart, and the weekly bar printed as an outside week. Both very negative.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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A Very Mechanical Day Trading in the ES

The market opened at the lower end of the previous day’s range on Thursday, looking briefly below Wednesday’s low then rallying back into its range, trading to and pulling back from very visual references and suggesting early that this day was being controlled by short and day time frame traders:

mechanical-trading-ES

– In A period, price traded higher exactly to the combined, visual references of the overnight session half back/single print from Wednesday at 2172.75, and pulled back exactly to the opening price before rallying again.

– In B period, price traded higher exactly to the wide point of control from the overnight session at 2174.75 (2 ticks shy of unchanged), then pulled back to just one tick above the current session’s half back level at 2171.50.

D period rallied higher but failed to gain acceptance above Wednesday’s late rally high and overnight high at 2176.00.

– E and F periods sold lower, but F bounced exactly off the floating half back level at 2172.50, more mechanical trading.

There are often good odds that very visual, mechanically traded levels like the F and earlier B period lows could be revisited, either during the same trading session or soon after. After balancing in G and H periods and forming an 8 wide point of control at 2173.75 the market broke lower, trading through the B & F references in I period but bounced from just one tick above the opening print. The mechanical trading continued.

The wide developing point of control at 2173.75 lowered the odds of price trading too far away from it. J,K and L periods all traded within just one tick of the A period low, making it a poor low on Thursday’s market profile chart, but could not get continuation below the earlier low.

For any meaningful continuation lower a second, lower distribution would probably have to develop and the developing point of control should migrate lower. Neither happened. Price balanced through M period, and the point of control failed to migrate lower. The market apparently short covered back to its POC at the end of the regular session.

Thursday ended as a balanced day, with a poor low and lower value. The market is now one timeframing lower for three consecutive days. Trading with acceptance above Thursday’s unchanged/POC level could target Thursday’s high. Failure to trade above 2177.25 keeps the one timeframing lower on the daily chart intact.

Acceptance below Thursday’s poor low could easily target the previous weekly low at 2165.25 and the bottom of the unfilled gap on the daily chart at 2163.50. There is also a very prominent naked point of control left from Aug. 4 at 2159.00.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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More New S&P Emini All Time Highs

After ending the previous week as an outside week – the weekly bar trading below but closing above the prior week’s range – the ES pit session gapped open higher on Monday seeing another new all time S&P emini pit session high put in at 2181.25, 7 ticks shy of the new all time high at 2183.00 it made in the overnight Globex session.

Monday was a no confidence, slow pace trading session with value beginning the day higher but settling almost unchanged, and ending with back to back prominent points of control at 2176.50

Back-to-Back-Wide-POCS

The market traded mainly between the previous day’s high and pullback low off of the prior multi day trading range high at 2172.75

If Tuesday’s open is within Monday’s range, failure to trade with acceptance above the wide POC could easily target Monday’s poor low and possibly see price return back into the previous trading range below 2173, and filling in some of the excess single prints from August 5 and the unfilled gap from August 4th at 2163.50.

But the selling from the matching D/E period highs on Monday came from the exact halfback level at the time and was also just a tick below the previous day’s high, a very visual trading reference. If price trades above Monday’s wide POC on Tuesday that level could easily be revisited. Trading with acceptance above the POC could target Tuesday’s high and the new Globex all time high at 2183.

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