Tag Archives: point of control

ES Selloff GAP Filled – Potential Island Reversal, or Continuation of One Time Framing Higher to New All Time Highs?

Short term traders dominate the market

es-daily-chart-december-contract

Just an 8 1/2 point trading range in the ES Thursday after a gap opening higher from the prior day’s range created from the September 9th selloff. Price grinded higher to reach just two ticks from the unrepaired very prominent point of control from September 8th and closed the gap, trading through 2169.25

possible-island-reversal-es

Balance trading rules could apply on Friday, depending on where the market opens:

– Look above or below balance and accelerate
– Look above or below balance and fail, returning back into the balance, initially targeting the opposite end of the balance
– Remain within balance

Although very mechanical, the market is still one timeframing higher on the daily chart. Potential targets above Thursday’s high include the poor high at 2179.75 from September 7th and the August 23rd all time ES high on the December contract at 2184.50, which was also a poor high with only one tick of excess.

Potential destination trades below Thursday’s poor low at 2164.25 could include the high from Wednesday, September 21st and close at 2157.50/2156.25, followed by the 2152.50 anomaly/single print, and 2147.75 single print.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Value ended overlapping to higher but closed with weak, poor low

Although value was overlapping to higher for Wednesday’s U.S. pit session, the ES broke lower in I period after a failed breakout attempt higher from H period’s small balanced inside bar and one timeframed lower for the final 4 periods into the close. The ES closed two ticks above the previous day’s low.

weak-and-poor-low

Wednesday’s profile ended with a weak and poor low at 2112.00, weak because it is only one tick below the previous day’s pit session low, and poor because of just one tick of excess in the final periods. Weak and poor lows are usually repaired in future trading sessions.

There is the possibility of a gap lower opening on Thursday, but if price opens within Wednesday’s range and can’t find acceptance above the point of control at 2125.50, the low at 2112 has good odds of at least being tested. Acceleration below Wednesday’s low could bring in more selling, first testing Monday’s low at 2110.50. Acceptance below that low could see price repairing more of the poor profile structure from July 8th and testing the previous June relief rally high at 2103.50. There is also an unfilled gap at 2095.00 from July 7th.

If price repairs Wednesday’s poor low and returns back into its range, monitor price for acceptance or rejection, and one timeframing for continuation or balance.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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ES Sells Off, Monthly One Time Framing Higher Ends

The ES gapped open lower on Friday and sold off more than 55 points from its previous close, one time framing lower in every 30 minute period but one.

september-9th-es-selloff

Will this wide price range now become a new trading range where two-sided trade can take place, or will the eminis continue lower in search of balance? While ES futures volume was split between the back and front month contracts in rollover, NYSE volume was moderately higher at 4.2 billion compared to the size of the downward price move.

Usually there is no point of control on trend days where the market is one time framing lower for most of the session, but the market tried to find balance late on Friday in I through M periods, forming a five TPO wide POC at 2138.50 but broke lower in M period. If the ES pit session opens Monday morning within Friday’s large trading range, the late day spike base at 2134.00 could be an important trading reference.

Opening and trading above 2134.00 would suggest the spike was rejected, leaving a buying tail, while opening below the spike base would suggest price has not auctioned low enough to cut off the selling, and price is still looking for two-sided trade. Opening within the spike suggests price is accepted and the downward break remains intact, and two-sided trade can take place.

On the larger timeframe charts, the ES has now stopped one timeframing higher on the monthly chart, and the weekly bar printed as an outside week. Both very negative.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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