Tag Archives: point of control

Choppy, Low Confidence Trading in ES After GAP Open Lower

The ES is one timeframing lower now for three consecutive days. If the market tries to rebound on Tuesday and trades above Monday’s high at 2149.50 the daily one timeframing lower will stop. Acceptance above the high could target Friday’s gap fill at 2156.00, near the 2158.00 September 9th prior trading range high.

indecison-in-es

Monday’s developing point of control quietly crept lower during the 13 point gap open lower chop session. Opening within range, or looking above Monday’s high and reentering the range, could see price gravitate back to the POC and test the close at 2140.00 and possibly Monday’s low. If price can gain acceptance below Monday’s low at 2136.75, the closely grouped lows from September 19/21st and potential “firecracker effect” could come into focus.

gap-lower

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ES Selloff GAP Filled – Potential Island Reversal, or Continuation of One Time Framing Higher to New All Time Highs?

Short term traders dominate the market

es-daily-chart-december-contract

Just an 8 1/2 point trading range in the ES Thursday after a gap opening higher from the prior day’s range created from the September 9th selloff. Price grinded higher to reach just two ticks from the unrepaired very prominent point of control from September 8th and closed the gap, trading through 2169.25

possible-island-reversal-es

Balance trading rules could apply on Friday, depending on where the market opens:

– Look above or below balance and accelerate
– Look above or below balance and fail, returning back into the balance, initially targeting the opposite end of the balance
– Remain within balance

Although very mechanical, the market is still one timeframing higher on the daily chart. Potential targets above Thursday’s high include the poor high at 2179.75 from September 7th and the August 23rd all time ES high on the December contract at 2184.50, which was also a poor high with only one tick of excess.

Potential destination trades below Thursday’s poor low at 2164.25 could include the high from Wednesday, September 21st and close at 2157.50/2156.25, followed by the 2152.50 anomaly/single print, and 2147.75 single print.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Value ended overlapping to higher but closed with weak, poor low

Although value was overlapping to higher for Wednesday’s U.S. pit session, the ES broke lower in I period after a failed breakout attempt higher from H period’s small balanced inside bar and one timeframed lower for the final 4 periods into the close. The ES closed two ticks above the previous day’s low.

weak-and-poor-low

Wednesday’s profile ended with a weak and poor low at 2112.00, weak because it is only one tick below the previous day’s pit session low, and poor because of just one tick of excess in the final periods. Weak and poor lows are usually repaired in future trading sessions.

There is the possibility of a gap lower opening on Thursday, but if price opens within Wednesday’s range and can’t find acceptance above the point of control at 2125.50, the low at 2112 has good odds of at least being tested. Acceleration below Wednesday’s low could bring in more selling, first testing Monday’s low at 2110.50. Acceptance below that low could see price repairing more of the poor profile structure from July 8th and testing the previous June relief rally high at 2103.50. There is also an unfilled gap at 2095.00 from July 7th.

If price repairs Wednesday’s poor low and returns back into its range, monitor price for acceptance or rejection, and one timeframing for continuation or balance.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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