Tag Archives: point of control

ES Remains in Range After TrumpCare Bill Pulled

After a no-vote on the repeal of ObamaCare in the US House of Representatives on Friday the ES stayed in its 2 1/2 day trading range, just briefly looking below it late before short covering into the close

Split-view Market Profile charts on March 23rd and 24th:

The ES opened near the center of the recent trading range and traded at a sluggish pace early as traders still waited for the House to vote on the repeal of ObamaCare and replacement with TrumpCare. Price grinded higher exactly to Thursday’s rally high at 2352.00 in C period, trading a few ticks above it in D period to the level the market broke down from on Thursday.

A sharp spike lower in F period ran the stops below the near matching C/D/E lows, but with no continuation the market bounced back to the developing 6 TPO wide point of control at 2348.50, widening to 8 TPO’s by H period.

After trading lower in I and J, the market broke sharply again in K and L periods, looking below the prior day’s low at 2338.25. But with the combination of low volume (NYSE daily volume was under 2.98 billion), slowing pace, a weak L period high and a wide point of control above price failed to break out of the range and continue lower, and quickly short covered in the final 30 minute trading period almost all the way back to the magnetic point of control.

Depending on where price opens on Monday, Friday’s late rally high at 2347.25 could be an important early trading reference. Opening below and not violating the rally high could infer the late rally was just short covering and Friday’s prevailing down trend is still in tact, increasing the odds of a retest of the weekly low at 2331.75. If a breakout to the downside occurs potential lower targets are the unfilled gap from February 10 at 2312.75 and the emotional 2300.00 price level.

Price acceptance above the rally high and wide point of control from Friday could easily see price test Friday’s high at 2352.75 and attempt to repair the poor high from Wednesday at 2356.00, and Tuesday’s lower distribution high at 2357.25. Higher references include the single print at 2361.75 and the long string of excess single prints above the anomaly at 2364.50.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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Near Back to Back Points of Control on Market Profile Chart

Market Profile Chart Week Ending March 17, 2017

market-profile-chart-march-19-2017

Short term traders were predominant in the market on Friday, leaving a poor low on the Market Profile chart at 2372.75. Price failed to close below the previous pit session low. Value was unchanged.

Depending on where price is at the open of Monday’s pit session, early focus could be on the near back to back points of control from March 16/17 at 2377.50/2378.25. Failure to find acceptance above that level tests Friday’s close and could easily see price repair the poor low, acceleration below that level could target the FOMC day low at 2365.75 and potentially the very prominent naked point of control from March 14 at 2361.25.

While the short and intermediate trends are balancing, the long term trend remains up. Price acceptance above 2377.50 has good odds of at least testing Friday’s high at 2382.25. Trading above that level would stop price from one timeframing lower on the daily chart and could then easily repair the poor high from March 16 at 2384.50, trading back into the excess single prints from the FOMC rally. Whenever price takes out prior excess the potential for change exists, if price rallies it opens the door to a possible retest of the latest all time high at 2398.50 on the March contract.

Looking at the profiles from Thursday and Friday as a two day balance, balance trading rules could apply:

– look above or below balance and accelerate
– look above or below balance and fail, and return into balance targeting the opposite end
– remain in balance

Another possible trade scenario could see price repair either the poor high or poor low from the two day balance and fail, returning back into the balance, targeting the opposing poor structure.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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