Tag Archives: continuation

Value ended overlapping to higher but closed with weak, poor low

Although value was overlapping to higher for Wednesday’s U.S. pit session, the ES broke lower in I period after a failed breakout attempt higher from H period’s small balanced inside bar and one timeframed lower for the final 4 periods into the close. The ES closed two ticks above the previous day’s low.

weak-and-poor-low

Wednesday’s profile ended with a weak and poor low at 2112.00, weak because it is only one tick below the previous day’s pit session low, and poor because of just one tick of excess in the final periods. Weak and poor lows are usually repaired in future trading sessions.

There is the possibility of a gap lower opening on Thursday, but if price opens within Wednesday’s range and can’t find acceptance above the point of control at 2125.50, the low at 2112 has good odds of at least being tested. Acceleration below Wednesday’s low could bring in more selling, first testing Monday’s low at 2110.50. Acceptance below that low could see price repairing more of the poor profile structure from July 8th and testing the previous June relief rally high at 2103.50. There is also an unfilled gap at 2095.00 from July 7th.

If price repairs Wednesday’s poor low and returns back into its range, monitor price for acceptance or rejection, and one timeframing for continuation or balance.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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ES Stalled at Midpoint of Range

Price rallied off the open of Monday’s ES pit session, stalling at and later pulling back to the approximate midpoint of the prior multi day trading range and leaving a three TPO wide selling ledge at 2178.25 in L, M and N periods.

short-covering-back-into-trading-range

Value ended the day overlapping to higher, with the point of control also migrating higher intraday from an earlier 5 TPO wide at 2177.25 to 8 wide at 2179.25 by the close, but NYSE volume was very low at just 2.65 billion suggesting shorter term traders in control with no continuation of the earlier apparent short covering move.

2178.25 could be a go/no-go level. Monday’s market profile chart left a poor high at 2182.25. Any downside break should probably be looked at more cautiously if the high isn’t repaired first, monitoring one timeframing for potential continuation lower.

Accelerating through Monday’s high could target the prominent point of control (2187.75) and all time high (2191.50) from Aug. 23rd.

ES Daily Chart
multi-day-trading-range

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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A Very Mechanical Day Trading in the ES

The market opened at the lower end of the previous day’s range on Thursday, looking briefly below Wednesday’s low then rallying back into its range, trading to and pulling back from very visual references and suggesting early that this day was being controlled by short and day time frame traders:

mechanical-trading-ES

– In A period, price traded higher exactly to the combined, visual references of the overnight session half back/single print from Wednesday at 2172.75, and pulled back exactly to the opening price before rallying again.

– In B period, price traded higher exactly to the wide point of control from the overnight session at 2174.75 (2 ticks shy of unchanged), then pulled back to just one tick above the current session’s half back level at 2171.50.

D period rallied higher but failed to gain acceptance above Wednesday’s late rally high and overnight high at 2176.00.

– E and F periods sold lower, but F bounced exactly off the floating half back level at 2172.50, more mechanical trading.

There are often good odds that very visual, mechanically traded levels like the F and earlier B period lows could be revisited, either during the same trading session or soon after. After balancing in G and H periods and forming an 8 wide point of control at 2173.75 the market broke lower, trading through the B & F references in I period but bounced from just one tick above the opening print. The mechanical trading continued.

The wide developing point of control at 2173.75 lowered the odds of price trading too far away from it. J,K and L periods all traded within just one tick of the A period low, making it a poor low on Thursday’s market profile chart, but could not get continuation below the earlier low.

For any meaningful continuation lower a second, lower distribution would probably have to develop and the developing point of control should migrate lower. Neither happened. Price balanced through M period, and the point of control failed to migrate lower. The market apparently short covered back to its POC at the end of the regular session.

Thursday ended as a balanced day, with a poor low and lower value. The market is now one timeframing lower for three consecutive days. Trading with acceptance above Thursday’s unchanged/POC level could target Thursday’s high. Failure to trade above 2177.25 keeps the one timeframing lower on the daily chart intact.

Acceptance below Thursday’s poor low could easily target the previous weekly low at 2165.25 and the bottom of the unfilled gap on the daily chart at 2163.50. There is also a very prominent naked point of control left from Aug. 4 at 2159.00.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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