With overnight inventory 100% short below the previous close, an open-drive lower at the start of Thursday’s pit session left a string of excess single prints in the opening period. Selling accelerated in B period with price breaking below the low of the current 6 day balance at 2255.
Split view market profile chart:
With no early acceptance back into the previous day’s range and no immediate correction to the short overnight inventory, the ES one timeframed lower for the first four periods, but the early decline did not appear to bring in heavier selling volume and the point of control widened to 5 TPO’s wide at 2254, preventing downside continuation. NYSE daily volume was just 3.46 billion.
Price reentered the previous range and six day balance when the F period bar accelerated though the high of the less than three point inside bar in E period, short covering back through the earlier A/B period single prints. The market one timeframed higher for seven consecutive periods off the D period low.
The point of control migrated higher throughout the day, value finished the session overlapping to lower.
Depending on Friday’s open, the late pullback low at 2262.25 could provide short term support.
Although value was overlapping to higher for Wednesday’s U.S. pit session, the ES broke lower in I period after a failed breakout attempt higher from H period’s small balanced inside bar and one timeframed lower for the final 4 periods into the close. The ES closed two ticks above the previous day’s low.
Wednesday’s profile ended with a weak and poor low at 2112.00, weak because it is only one tick below the previous day’s pit session low, and poor because of just one tick of excess in the final periods. Weak and poor lows are usually repaired in future trading sessions.
There is the possibility of a gap lower opening on Thursday, but if price opens within Wednesday’s range and can’t find acceptance above the point of control at 2125.50, the low at 2112 has good odds of at least being tested. Acceleration below Wednesday’s low could bring in more selling, first testing Monday’s low at 2110.50. Acceptance below that low could see price repairing more of the poor profile structure from July 8th and testing the previous June relief rally high at 2103.50. There is also an unfilled gap at 2095.00 from July 7th.
If price repairs Wednesday’s poor low and returns back into its range, monitor price for acceptance or rejection, and one timeframing for continuation or balance.
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