Monday’s regular hour trading session opened within the upper distribution of Friday’s rally to a new all time high. Early chop and no acceptance back below Friday’s late pullback low at 2455.00 contained price there, ending the session as a balanced, inside day.
Short term, mechanical buyers were waiting to buy pullbacks off obvious references – a tick above the open print in C period, and exactly off the prior high in E, trading higher into the excess single prints at Friday’s high in D & H and lowering the odds that Friday’s excess (just three ticks) will now be lasting.
With just a 6 1/4 point trading range, Monday’s profile was balanced, which happens often following a previous trending day. It was also an inside day. On Tuesday, potential balance trading scenarios could be in play:
– Look above Mondays high and immediately challenge the all time high at 2461.25, an upside breakout would accelerate to new all time highs, finding acceptance at higher prices
– Look above the balance and fail, returning back into Mondays range and, probably minimally, targeting the lower end of the range.
– Look below balance and accelerate. Acceptance below 2454.25 could easily test the prior all time high at 2451.50
– Look below balance and fail, returning back into Mondays range, targeting the wide point of control at 2457.25, close at 2458.50, Monday’s high and a potential new all time high.
There is only three ticks of excess now at the all time high on the daily and weekly charts, probably lowering the odds that this excess will be lasting. But if liquidation does occur, which is very possible due to the mechanical nature of the buying during the four day rally, price should find acceptance back into Friday’s lower distribution, below the prior all time high, with good odds of testing Friday’s low at 2444.25. Trading below 2444.25 would stop the daily one timeframing higher off the July 11th 2410.00 low.
More serious selling would see price test Thursday’s low at 2439.00, and potentially the top of the gap (July 12th low) at 2434.75. The bottom of the gap from July 11th at 2430.00 remains unfilled.
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