Tag Archives: one timeframing higher

ES Rallies to Another New Record High

ES rallies to another new all time high, market profile chart
one timeframing higher
Price one timeframed higher every 30 minute period




Market Profile commentary

Overnight inventory was 100% long coming into the regular trading session on Friday.

Mechanical buying off the overnight halfback price level in the opening period (overnight chart not shown), again off the open print in C period, and again off the overnight high at the low of E, signaled another day apparently being dominated by short term traders. Price continued to one tiemframe higher after the open for the entire session.

“Traders do what works until it doesn’t work anymore”. In this case buying off common, visual day time frame references and taking price to another new all time high.

The late day spike in L period at 2863.25 could be an early market profile reference on the next regular hours trading day, depending on where price opens after the weekend; acceptance within or above the spike shows the higher prices are being accepted, and could lead to a test of the all time high (2900 is now within striking distance). Opening/acceptance below the spike base could tell us that the late higher prices are being rejected.

If price finds acceptance back below 2863.25, the potential destination is the low of that balance at 2858.00, and possibly a test the single print at 2856.50. Acceptance back into the lower distribution could target the opposite end of that balance, Friday’s low.

The poor, mechanical structure of Friday’s profile makes the rally appear to be very questionable, probably leaving good odds that at least some of the anomalies from Friday’s chart will be revisited/repaired.


Note – at the time of this posting (Sunday evening) the overnight market had already traded to another new record high. While not guaranteed, all time highs that have been made in an overnight session have always been revisited during a regular day trading session. However, there have been overnight records highs in the past that had remained for a considerable amount of time before being retested in a daytime session.

(the above, post and all posts on es-traders.com, is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. DO NOT BASE ANY INVESTMENT DECISION UPON ANY MATERIALS FOUND ON THIS WEBSITE. We are not registered as a securities broker-dealer or an investment adviser either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) or with any state securities regulatory authority. We are neither licensed nor qualified to provide investment advice. Please read our disclaimer)




Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: 

ES short covers from overnight selloff

With overnight inventory 100% short and a 10 and a half point gap lower opening, early volatility in the ES led to short covering in the ES. After trading lower to just a tick above the overnight low in the first 30 minute period, price rallied to close the gap from Friday, finding acceptance back inside the prior week’s 3 1/2 day trading range.

Value had risen with price on Monday but remained lower on the day and could not even get back to overlapping to higher value, although price did find acceptance back in the previous week’s trading range.

Price one timeframed higher until I period when the developing point of control turned 4 wide at 2335.00 after the short covering rally slowed below the prior session’s value area low. The POC migrated higher to 2337.00 where it ended the session at 9 TPO’s wide.

The “rally” was very mechanical:

short covering rally, split view, very nechanical market profile chart

  • A period’s 2318.00 low was just one tick from the overnight low
  • B period pullback low just above halfback
  • C period high just 2 ticks below filling the gap
  • D period low just one tick below the A period (initial balance) high, closing the single print
  • E period low exactly at Friday’s low, 2331.75
  • F period low exactly at D’s high, closing the single print

After the one timeframing higher stopped, the J period low bounced from three ticks off the previous low, keeping price inside Friday’s range for the remainder of the session.

Although a strong rally off the overnight low, forcing the weaker hands overnight shorts to cover, the very mechanical buying at obvious levels suggests some if not all of these levels can be revisited.

By end of day the profile formed a double distribution. Price acceptance below the J period pullback low at 2332.50 and single print at 2331.25 puts price back into the lower distribution. Acceptance in that balance has the chance to retest the mechanical buying levels from Monday and possibly fill in the excess single prints from the buying tail below 2323.50. Further potential downside targets were outlined in previous posts.

short-covering-double-distribution

Failure to find acceptance back below the upper distribution keeps price in the prior trading range between the 2331.75 low and 2357.25, the high of the March 21st selloff’s lower distribution. When price re-enters a prior established balance, to either side, the potential exists to trade back to the opposite end of the balance.

Monday’s 9 TPO wide point of control 2337.50, two ticks below the pit session close at 2338.00, could provide early support or resistance, being cognizant that mechanical buying at the L/M/N lows were off that level. If the market opens within the upper distribution it might be best to let it “shake out” and provide clues as to which direction it wants to go.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: 

ES Rolls to March Contract – Trading at All Time High

At the time of this post, the ES has already traded above the last regular session’s all time high at 2255.75 (March contract) in the overnight session Sunday evening. While all time highs made in the 24 hour session can last for quite a long time, to date they have always been revisited during a U.S. pit session.

December 9th Market Profile, March Contract

Friday’s profile was a double distribution. Depending on where the market opens, an important market profile trading reference could be the base of the late day spike at 2250.00 (March contract), the single print separating the upper and lower distributions.

Acceptance back below 2250.00 could draw price back to Friday’s wide point of control at 2247.50 and potentially test Friday’s low at 2242.50, a mechanical low just two ticks above the prior session close.

The profile structure below the market is weak, including the December 8th low exactly at that previous day’s close, and the long, stretched out anomalous profile from December 7th.

While the profile structure is poor and has good odds of being repaired, the market is still in an uptrend on all time frames, and would have to trade below Friday’s low (2242.50 March contract) to at least stop the one time framing higher on the daily chart.

(the above post and all posts on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

Share  Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedinmail


Subscribe: