The S&P 500 E-mini has been one timeframing lower on the daily chart from the March 1st all time high. One timeframing occurs, in this case one timeframing lower, when price fails to make a new high by more than a tick or two, but makes a new low.
The ES will have to trade at least more than two ticks above Wednesday’s high on Thursday to stop the onetimeframing lower on the daily chart.
But while in a short term down trend, the market is still trending higher on the intermediate and longer term time frames, and one timeframing higher on both the weekly and monthly charts. Price would have to trade below 2357.25 to stop the one timeframing lower on the weekly.
Wednesday’s U.S. pit session opened inside of the previous day’s range, just above the very prominent (twelve TPO wide) point of control, at 2370.00 and traded within a narrow six point range for the first four periods.
A late break to the downside in J period from the small inside bar in I period accelerated price lower, taking out the previous day’s low. The K period bar low matched the low of J to the tick, making it a poor low. Price bounced off the poor J/K low exactly to the half back level at 2368.25 in L period before the selling resumed, taking out the poor low. The market closed at the low of Tuesday, not getting the outside day.
Wednesdays wide point of control is a tick below Tuesday’s very prominent point of control, twelve TPO’s wide, at 2369.25. The back to back POC’s could be a key reference for Thursday, acceptance below that level keeps the short term down trend in tact.
Wednesday’s break in J period put price back into the previous four day trading range from February 21st-24th. If price finds acceptance below Wednesday’s low at 2360.75, the previous week’s low at 2357.50 and low of the prior balance at 2351.50 could come into play. Further potential downside targets are the February 17th gap fill at 2348.75 and prominent naked point of control from that day at 2341.50.
If price can shrug off the downward pressure and find acceptance back above Wednesday’s Point of control price could easily test Wednesday’s high at 2373.00 and stop the daily one timeframing lower. The succession of daily highs above Wednesday’s high – 2374.75, 2378.25, 2383.25 -are potential higher short term price targets if price can rally.
Thursday is the beginning of rollover to the June contract, so there also exists the possibility of it being a low volume, range bound trading day ahead of Friday’s monthly jobs data, barring any major news events that could rattle the markets.
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