Tag Archives: Brexit

ES sells off after petroleum status report, recovers to half back late

ES-selloff-after petroleum-report

After a slow grind higher to 2012 and leaving 8 points of single prints in the first 30 minute trading period Thursday, price pulled back in B period to exactly half-back and tried to rally again, but buyers couldn’t get price back above the B period high. C period started selling off ahead of the EIA Petroleum Status Report due out at 11 am (EST), which was to cite a 2.25% lower crude ouput production.

More selling in D period saw price re-enter the previous day’s range, following crude oil’s lead, one timeframing lower for 7 consecutive 30 minute market profile periods before I period briefly stopped the one timeframing. But the next two periods saw price continue lower to 2081.75, a few ticks below Wednesday’s pullback low and 20 points off the high of the day before short covering back exactly to the day’s half back level, and closing the session at 2092.25.

The market left an unfilled single print at 2093.75, the previous day’s close, and another poor low at 2081.75.

Depending on where the market opens on Friday, Thursday’s late rally high at 2092.25 to the single print at 2093.75 could be early trading references for the pit session – acceptance below those levels could target the poor low, but Friday’s pre-market features the monthly employment report at 8:30am (EST) which is sure to provide volatility before the market opens. Acceptance above the high from Thursday could at least see price test the overnight session post Brexit recovery high from July 3rd at 2004.75.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer)

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Calm before the upcoming Brexit Storm?

twelve-point-S&P-trading-range-within-overnight-session

Early trade Tuesday in ‘A’ period (the first half hour trading period on the above S&P chart) stopped exactly at the base of the spike from Monday, which also coincided with the overnight high and overnight session’s half-back level, very mechanical day and short term traders references. Price sold from there down to just a tick below the overnight session low, another very mechanical, visual trader’s reference.

Tuesday’s trading day was contained within the 12 point overnight range from Monday, forming a very prominent point of control at 2079.50. It is also another inside day, trading completely within the previous day’s range.

Being another inside day, possible trade scenarios (again, barring another gap open) for the next trading session would be for price to look outside of either end of balance and accelerate, or look outside and fail, returning within the balance. If look outside of balance and fails the destination trade is the opposite end of the balance, and potentially beyond. Any breakout of balance should have better odds of follow through if price first visits the very wide point of control from Tuesday at 2079.50 and then reverses.

There is also the possibility of price staying within balance, but with the upcoming Brexit vote that might be the lowest odds of the scenarios. Existing Home Sales and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony before the House Financial Services Committee are also scheduled for 10:00 AM EST Wednesday, followed by the EIA Petroleum Status Report at 10:30 AM EST, each of which could cause volatility.

Calm before the brexit storm?

On Thursday, June 23 The United Kingdom will decide whether the U.K. will remain a part of the European Union. Polling results will be reported throughout Thursday’s U.S. trading day, with the official announcement expected to be released early Friday morning, June 24th.

Significant market activity is expected for later this week resulting from the Brexit vote.

More information on the upcoming Brexit referendum can be read here.

(the above post and every post on es-traders.com is an interpretation of market generated information using the Market Profile, and the information contained within is to be used for informational purposes only and not to be construed as investment or trading advice. Please read our disclaimer

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