The ES opened near the low of the prior regular session range and four day balance on Thursday, breaking out below the poor three TPO wide low from June 30th at 2418.50. But with no early follow through below the second period low at 2410.25 the market reversed, trading above and below the previous low before following a sharp selloff in crude oil later in the day.
The late selling left multiple anomalies in the profile chart. Anomalies are often a sign of more emotionally driven, shorter term traders and have good odds of being at least partially repaired, or revisited, in the next or future trading session.
The ES weekly chart had stopped one timeframing higher on June 29th:
The ES monthly chart is still one timeframing higher, with price trading near the low of June:
Friday, July 7th is the release of the monthly jobs report and should produce early volatility in the markets. If price in the ES trades below Thursday’s low at 2405.25, it will likely test the June low. Trading below 2402.25 will end the higher monthly one timeframing.
An end to the monthly one timeframing could mean a change is occurring in the market. Trading with acceptance below the psychological 2400 level could lead to a more significant change.
An early Market Profile trading reference, depending on where price opens on Friday, is the late day spike at 2410.25. Opening within or below the spike is negative as it would imply the late lower prices were accepted. Opening above the spike could be positive, leaving Thursday’s lower single prints as an excess buying tail.
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