OPEC talks spur rally Thursday – or just more short covering?

Thursday February 11 Market Profile

Thursday’s pit session low at 1805.00 is just one point above the two year recent low made on January 20 at 1804.00, which makes it a very suspect low. After OPEC announced Thursday afternoon that it will cooperate on production cuts, the ES rallied 30 points before settling in 20 points above the day’s low to close at 1825.25.

Thursday’s ‘L’ period pullback low at 1816.50 and the 10 wide point of control at 1817.50 could be key as to whether the market continues the rally on Friday or continues lower to once again test the 1804-05 area lows. But rallying from close to exact reference points could imply it is not a strong area and might not hold when retested.

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Volatility and huge price swings remain

The S&P futures opened near Monday’s low on Tuesday, looked just a few tickes below the overnight low at 1826.50 and short covered straight up 30 points to the exact overnight high at 1856.75, obvious short covering vs. new buying coming into the market because of the size of the pullback, 20 points back into Monday’s range, and the exactness of the reference points. If it was anything more than just short covering price would not have retraced so quickly or drastically.

Most of the morning’s early gains were subsequently retraced but developing value for the day remained overlapping to higher, along with a prominent point of control not migrating lower. Price later rallied to 1863.75, just two points away from the Friday’s selloff low, but immediately sold off again to re-enter and close back within Monday’s trading range.

The ‘rally’ also failed to get back into the previous 5 day trading range at 1964.25.

The wide POC at 1839.25, along with developing value should be main reference points for Wednesday. Expect more volatility.

Yellen Text To Be Released At 8:30 a.m. ET Wednesday – February 10, 2016
The text of Janet Yellen’s semi-annual testimony on monetary policy to the House Financial Services Committee will be posted Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET. She will read her statement to the committee at 10:00 a.m. ET and then take questions.

Janet Yellen Speaks 10:00 AM ET Wednesday

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