With the market still balancing near all time highs, the ES traded in a tight 10 point range waiting for the Fed minutes on Wednesday, developing a very prominent 11 TPO wide point of control at 2436.50 by K period.

A sharp break lower in K period following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s comments failed to result in a double distribution, as price short covered back through the earlier C period low and back to the earlier prominent point of control, after filling the gap from June 12th. Price could not trade as low as 2422.00, the very wide prominent point of control from June 12th. The selling also failed to close as an outside day, as price settled near the center of the prior range. Value and the wide POC did not migrate lower with price.

Depending on where price opens on Thursday, Wednesday’s wide POC could provide early support or resistance, depending on which side it opens if price opens with Wednesday’s range. Acceptance above the POC could target Wednesday’s high at 2442.00 and potentially test the latest all time high at 2443.50, a poor high because there is only one tick of excess on the Market Profile chart. There is still excess at the all time high on the monthly, weekly and daily charts.

Price acceptance below Wednesday’s wide POC on Thursday could target the top of the excess single print buying tail from Wednesday at 2428.50, and potentially Wednesday’s low at 2425.75. Acceptance below the low puts price back into the June 12th narrow range balanced profile, targeting the very wide naked point of control at 2422.00. If and when price reenters an established balance, the potential exists for price to test the opposite end of the balance. If price can find acceptance back into the June 12th range, there could be good odds of testing the low from that day at 2416.75.

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