A late afternoon press release on Monday stating North Korea had launched a ballistic missile over the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido that fell into the Pacific Ocean, possibly to demonstrate its capability of reaching the U.S. island territory of Guam, caused U.S. markets to open sharply lower on Tuesday.
But following the 15.5 point gap opening lower the ES short covered back into the prior five day range, and traded back into Monday’s range. Price only stopped one timeframing higher in one period (H) and not again until until the final period, closing back near the high of the previous session.
The rally put price back near the center of the August range, again lowering the odds of the monthly one timeframing higher to come to an end by the end of this month, as all timeframes appear to be balancing and there is substantial excess at the all time high. The ES has been one timeframing higher on the monthly chart since the November 2016 Presidential election.
But if Tuesday’s move higher was mainly short covering (NYSE daily volume relatively low at only 2.73 billion), that could weaken the market. If the ES closes the month near the lower end of the August range, the odds are still high the monthly one timeframing could end in October.
Tuesday’s profile left two distributions. Price acceptance below the late pullback low at 2445.00 should attempt to repair some of the anomalies in the upper distribution, and potentially test the lower end of it at 2438.25
Acceptance back below the single print separating the two distributions at 2436.00 could test Tuesday’s lower excess.
But Tuesday’s auction higher, after the gap opening lower, was a failed breakout of the five day balance to the downside. If price opens inside the upper distribution, the odds are probably good that Tuesday’s high will be retested, along with the Monday’s high at 2449.25.
Acceptance above that level first targets the five day balance high at 2454.00, potentially the upper distribution high from the 8/22 selloff profile at 2459.50, and the single prints above to the high from 8/17 at 2464.00.
The matching highs from 8/9 and 8/16 at 2474.00 could be within striking distance if the market rallies to find acceptance above 2464.00.
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