The ES opened exactly at the previous pit session low on Tuesday, quickly trading 3 1/2 points lower to just two ticks above the overnight low at 2368.75. Generally, it could be considered a mechanical opening when price trades exactly off or just a single tick away from a very visual reference, and is often an indication of weaker hands trading money rather than a more serious indication of stronger money selling.

With no trade below the overnight low in the opening period the market reversed and reentered the prior pit range in the second (B) period, trading through the previous close and correcting the short overnight inventory but falling short of reaching Monday’s point of control.

With no confidence in either direction the market traded through the open and Monday’s low in all but one period before breaking lower in I period, to eventually test the FOMC daily low at 2365.50 in K period.

The low of the day at 2365.50 can be considered a weak low, being exactly at the previous near matching lows from 3/13 and 3/15 and high from 3/14. This is another indication of mechanical, short term trading money buying off a very visual level.

In addition to the weak low, Monday’s profile also left a poor high (one tick of excess) at 2376.00. The 9 TPO wide point of control and late rally high at 2372.50 could be an early reference on Tuesday. If price trades above Monday’s close it would have to find acceptance above that level to make an attempt at repairing the poor high and stop the daily one timeframing. Failure to find acceptance above 2372.50 (and Monday’s close) could easily see price retest the 2365.60 weak low.

Price acceptance below 2365.50 brings the very wide naked point of control from 3/14 at 2361.25 and the recent trading range low at 2351.00 into focus.

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